Fox News just had Kellyanne Conway on with Lawrence Jones and I thought it was a really great analysis.
Two big takeaways:
One, Kamala Harris only has one path to 270 electoral votes, so only one path to victory. If that fails, she’s toast.
Two, President Trump has multiple paths, and could actually lock this thing up early tonight if everything goes well.
Watch here:
FULL TRANSCRIPT:
Lawrence: They want stronger borders. It’s incredible. Thanks, Rachel. Today is election day, and right now we are looking at the different paths to 270 and what viewers can expect tonight as the polls close and the results roll in. Of course, we are going to bring in the best. Joining us right now, Fox News contributor, former White House counselor, and the host of “Here’s the Deal” on Fox Nation, Kellyanne Conway.
There are several paths. First, we’ve got six of the seven toss-ups. So we are going to break them down. This is Kamala Harris and this is the blue wall. What do you see here?
Kellyanne Conway: That’s really her only path tonight. They’ve given up on North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. I would like to point out the blue wall has voted as a block since 1992, and it has voted as a block for the Democratic nominee with the exception of 2016 when all three states went to Donald Trump. He swept them and became president by 77,000 votes. This is important because Biden got them back but added a couple of states. Kamala Harris is doing worse in the states than Biden did.
And looking at Nevada. We will get to this; this is the only path because that just gets her to 270. Nebraska, the Republican leadership there, should have been taken care of. But she’s got to go in and win back those three states that he swept in 2016. Trump has many more paths. By the way, this is the first time, Lawrence, that Donald Trump has a public polling path to 270 in his 10-year presidential career.
Lawrence: Let’s talk about that. If he swings the East, that gets him to 270 as well.
Kellyanne Conway: Nevada hasn’t gone Republican since 2004, but that’s the only state that went from Democrat to Republican governor in 2022. They are suffering with foreclosures and defaults on employment in Nevada.
Lawrence: This doesn’t include Arizona.
Kellyanne Conway: I got him at 297 in the best scenario, and I can even add onto that—I think Michigan is one she may be able to get. At the last 158 babies got Pennsylvania. Wisconsin is notoriously difficult to poll. It showed Hillary Clinton, then Joe Biden, up by almost double digits.
Lawrence: Before we move on, P.A., the election results coming in—it’s going to take a while. We could be waiting, right?
Kellyanne Conway: It’ll take a while, but we usually are not waiting for it. The RNC, America First, Turning Point USA, and of course Trump himself, it’s been nothing short of remarkable. Cutting those gains are the Democrats more than in half and getting folks out early to the polls. They won that lawsuit in Bucks County. But when the lion roared, the rest of the kingdom followed. When he took the lead and said it was okay to vote early and make a plan, people listened and carried his torch. Democrats used to own that space in 2020 and 2022. We like what we see in states that register by party. Wisconsin and Michigan do not, so they’re tougher to understand.
Lawrence: Let’s say all the polling has been wrong, and Harris has a good night and sweeps the Sun Belt. How does it look?
Kellyanne Conway: If she sweeps the Sun Belt, she still has to—well, are you adding this?
Lawrence: This will get her to 289 if she sweeps the Sun Belt and gets that.
Kellyanne Conway: That’s a big issue, and I’ll tell you why. President Trump has been dotting this map ubiquitously. He has gone the most, I believe, to Pennsylvania, but he’s touched all the states. In Georgia, he’s tapping into Brian Kemp’s ground game as well as his own. Getting a lot of plus-Dell might help there.
Lawrence: That’s a plus.
Kellyanne Conway: You have a gubernatorial candidate who’s probably going to lose by double digits, but Trump is still up. He went early after those hurricanes. It’s just like East Palestine, Ohio. When you show up and people are in pain, they remember that and show up for you.
Lawrence: If Donald Trump has a really good night tonight, he builds the red wall: Wisconsin, Michigan, P.A., Arizona. Let’s say they win Georgia without the alliance of Brian Kemp. He still has a great night.
Kellyanne Conway: That’s why he has more paths to 270. She maybe has 1.5 in a generous analysis. He has multiple paths. The clearest and earliest path is Georgia, North Carolina, then you add on Pennsylvania. I expect that where the pollsters leave off, the lawyers will pick up. Both teams are ready, trying to make sure all the votes are counted and to ensure we don’t see any of these shenanigans with people accepting postmarks too late or using excuses like it was COVID five years ago. We are worried about how people are voting. But I think all eyes are on that. He told his team from the beginning, “I’ll turn out the vote; you protect it,” and they are doing that.
Lawrence: It all matters what people do today when they show up to the polls. In Georgia, the polls are going to close at 7:00 p.m., so you still have some time. North Carolina, 7:30. Stay in line. Pennsylvania, 8:00 p.m. Michigan, 8:00 p.m., and 9:00 p.m. So don’t miss that. Go to the swing state of Wisconsin; you’ve got 9:00 p.m., and Arizona, 9:00 p.m., as well. Nevada, a tough state, you’ve got until 10:00 p.m. So we’ll be up all night looking at those election results. And of course, you have to check…
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