In a recent Fox News interview, Elon Musk warned about the dangers and impact of rapidly declining birth rates in America and throughout the civilized world. “Unless that changes, civilization will disappear, and nothing seems to be turning that around. Humanity is dying.”
What Musk is referring to is the replacement birth rate or the average number of children a woman needs to have to ensure that a country’s population remains stable over time, typically set at 2.1 children per woman in developed countries. This rate accounts for child mortality and the sex ratio at birth, ensuring that each generation can replace itself.
A nation that experiences chronically low birth rates over an extended period creates an unbalanced age structure with an aging population, lower fertility as the population ages, and an inadequate workforce unable to generate the wealth and tax revenues needed to pay not only for national security but for the needs of an ever-growing cohort of elderly. As the working-age population dwindles, so does the nation’s future.
This process began in the 1970s. In that decade, unfounded fear of global overpopulation took hold, thanks primarily to Paul Ehrlich’s book The Population Bomb. Many women voluntarily chose not to have children, while others turned to abortion as it became legalized and prevalent throughout the civilized world. As a result, populations became considerably older and economically weaker.
Image by Pixlr AI.
Those countries faced with this demographic dilemma most commonly turned to mass legalized immigration. However, an unintended consequence of this policy is that it is also an incentive for mass illegal immigration.
When there is a large influx of legal and illegal immigrants, the overwhelming majority of those immigrating to those nations in dire need of labor are not from countries with similar civilizational backgrounds—for virtually all are experiencing low birth rates—but rather from Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia experiencing massive population growth.
Thus, the bulk of immigrants are the ill-educated inhabitants of societies philosophically, religiously, or ethnically opposed to that of the host nation. This creates the potential for societal upheaval as these immigrants frequently refuse to assimilate and instead make their own sub-cultures wherein their birth rates are more than double or triple that of the indigenous population.
When combined with the reality that those nations facing this demographic dilemma are inevitably plagued by socialist-inspired governance, excessive national debt, and/or stagnant economies, the unavoidable outcome is a nation and society that loses its identity and spirals into a black hole of being conquered by outside forces or subjugated by those it so willingly imported.
For nearly half a century, many countries in Europe have been foolishly marching down this road. The current societal upheavals in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, and other countries in Europe are the precursor steps toward their ultimate demise.
For example, Germany currently has a population of 84 million. Its replacement birth rate has not been above 2.0 since 1970 (it is currently at 1.46). Beginning in 1976, there have been nearly 8 million abortions. The number of live births averaged nearly 970,000 annually between 1960-1975. After 1976, it averaged less than 665,000, or a loss over 47 years of 14 million births and their potential progeny amounting to another 11 million births.
The indigenous German population is now considerably older as the median age has significantly increased from 32 in 1970 to 46 in 2024. Meanwhile, Germany’s immigrant population has expanded to nearly 24 million (a plurality from the Middle East) or nearly 29% of the total current population.
It is not just European nations but other countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan that are also facing the demographic downfall of their unique societies. A traditionally insular Japan has recently turned to large-scale immigration as their long-term birth rate is among the lowest in the world and its population the oldest.
Japan currently has a population of 123 million. Its replacement birth rate has not been above 2.0 since 1973 (it is currently at 1.23). Beginning in 1976, there have been over 15 million abortions. The number of live births averaged nearly 1.85 million annually between 1960-1975. After 1976, it averaged less than 1.2 million (hitting a low of 727 thousand in 2023). These statistics represent a potential loss over 47 years of nearly 30.5 million births and their potential progeny amounting to another 20 million births.
The Japanese population has, therefore, grown significantly older as the median age has dramatically increased from 28 in 1970 to nearly 50 in 2025. Japan has frantically begun to turn to immigration to help solve this demographic crisis. In 2024, their immigrant population totaled 3.8 million (or triple the number in 1996). It is projected that Japan will need upwards of at least another 14-18 million immigrants over the next 10-15 years to maintain its economy.
If these trends continue, within the next two to three generations, the centuries-old Japanese and German civilizations will effectively cease to exist. Will the United States follow in their footsteps?
The U.S., with a current population of 340 million, has recorded a replacement birth rate above 2.0 in only 18 of the past 54 years. It currently stands at 1.62. Since 1973, there have been over 63 million abortions (which is a population impact of 105 million when accounting for potential future births among those aborted).
The median age of the American population was 26.0 in 1970, increasing to 38.5 by 2024. In 1970, the immigrant population of the United States was 12 million. It currently stands at 48 million (half of whom are in the country illegally) or nearly 15% of the current population.
With the election of Donald Trump and the rise of the MAGA movement in taking over the Republican Party and addressing immigration and the long-term economic future of the country, the United States is in the best position of all civilized nations facing a demographic Armageddon to maintain its culture and society.
However, among virtually all other countries facing this dilemma, only a handful have the leadership and political will to reverse course even though, for many decades, they’ve been aware of the long-term consequences. Thus, on the surface, the ongoing demographic crisis among so many countries appears to be insoluble.
It is impossible in the short term to reverse immediately the stagnant or declining birth rates. However, by educating the populace about how important it is to their society’s future that they have families, combined with financial incentives (such as tax credits), the trend can be reversed within one or two generations.
However, an economy that creates wealth and promotes family formation must be the first order of business. The barriers and shackles of regulations and taxes must be dramatically reduced to spur economic growth and trade with other nations. Immigration must be carefully controlled by importing only those willing to assimilate. Strict border controls need to be instituted to prevent illegal immigration, and those immigrants currently residing in these nations unwilling to assimilate have to be deported.
Additionally, the nations of the West and countries such as Japan and South Korea must create an informal economic alliance by dropping virtually all trade barriers, untenable regulations, and travel restrictions while abandoning all support for so-called “globalization.”
If steps such as these are not undertaken soon, then Elon Musk’s prediction about the disappearance of civilization will prove to be accurate.
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