It’s the dawn of a new era for the Federal Government. At least, we hope so. Donald Trump has been re-elected, and Republicans control all three branches of government.
Thus far, it looks as though Trump is off to a strong start. His staff is already preparing a deluge of executive orders to undo much of the damage Joe Biden did by the same process. Trump’s Cabinet is also taking shape. From what I have seen, it may contain the youngest, most capable group since President Kennedy’s famed Whiz Kids in the 1960s.
The question is whether the Trump administration can accomplish any of the lofty goals it has set for itself. Let’s look at some of them.
Reforming the Federal Government
This may be the most challenging yet most necessary objective of them all. Federal bureaucrats have slowly usurped Congress’s power and established themselves as an unelected and uncontrollable fourth branch of government.
It is time for these people to go. Enter the temporary Department of Government Efficiency, which I have nicknamed the Canning Factory. If there is waste in the government, hopefully, Trump’s two manic revolutionaries, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, will be able to expose it. Then it is up to Trump and Congress to do something about it.
The goal is to cut two trillion dollars out of federal spending. Unfortunately, I doubt they can do it. As many others have suggested, the reason is that most of the money is tied to Social Security, Medicare, interest on the debt, and the Defense Department. Many other pet programs and pork projects could run into resistance from Congress. Unless Trump is willing to tackle entitlements, the goal may be unreachable.
I would rate their chances at cutting $250 billion at 90%, $500 billion at 50%, and $1 trillion at 10%.
Lowering Prices and Improving the Economy
It isn’t just the economy, stupid. It is price increases caused by inflation caused by excessive government spending and attempts to phase out fossil fuels. Interest rates were then intentionally raised to fight inflation, making things worse.
Trump can do several things to ease inflation. He can impound unspent money from the various Democrat spending programs and ask Congress to cancel others, reducing government spending.
He can also end the war on fossil fuels and encourage drilling for oil and natural gas, hopefully increasing supply and lowering the price. Since fossil fuels are utilized in almost every part of our economy, lowering the price of fuel, fertilizer, and petrochemicals helps reduce the cost of nearly everything else. Once inflation is under control, the Federal Reserve Board can lower interest rates.
The only problem is that Trump’s plan to drill, baby, drill won’t increase supplies in the short term. To do this, he will need help.
Unlike Joe Biden, Trump has maintained cordial relations with most world leaders. The key player here is Prince Mohamed bin Salman, the leader of Saudi Arabia. If Trump can persuade MBS to increase Saudi oil production, prices will decrease faster than if the U.S. tries to do it alone. This could also reduce the influence of Iran in the Middle East, which is something the Saudis may support.
Another tenet of Trump’s economic policy is using tariffs or import taxes as part of economic policy. He clearly understands the power of money. Why use military force when you can use financial power to get what you want? The one thing you don’t want Trump to have when negotiating a deal is leverage. With tariffs, he can control access to the world’s richest commercial market, the United States, which means he has tremendous leverage.
Critics say tariffs will raise prices and fuel inflation. However, that occurs only if they are implemented. The threat of tariffs is usually enough to get other countries or businesses to do what Trump wants, including removing their tariffs on our products. He plans to reduce the business tax rate to 15% and then threaten tariffs to persuade businesses to manufacture products in the U.S. and rebuild our industrial base.
I would rate the probability of reducing prices at 50%, rebuilding the economy at 90%, and levying tariffs on someone at 99%.
Stopping the Russia-Ukraine War
By inauguration time, this war will have been raging for almost three years. As Trump suggested, there is a way to stop the war. First, you tell Ukrainian president Zelensky that the U.S. will cut off all weapons and funding if he is unwilling to negotiate. Then you tell Russian president Putin that the U.S. will give Ukraine all the weapons and funding it needs if he is reluctant to end the war.
Another factor could be oil prices. What works to stimulate the American economy works against the Russian war machine. The lower the oil price, the less money Putin has for weapons and other materials. Again, Saudi Arabia’s help could be critical.
One sticking point may be Putin’s demand that Ukraine stay out of the NATO military alliance. The problem is that it leaves Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian aggression in the future. So far, the Ukrainians may have destroyed as many as 9,000 Russian tanks and inflicted over 700,000 Russian casualties. They did this with virtually no air force, primarily old Soviet tanks, and modern shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons, while revolutionizing drone warfare in the process. They deserve to be in NATO.
I rate the chances of a negotiated peace at 80% and the probability of Ukraine joining NATO at 40%.
Deporting Illegal Aliens
The soft invasion of America sponsored by the Biden/Obama crowd needs to end. It costs the country way too much to house and feed these people. Plus, they are straining our healthcare and education systems, not to mention threatening American lives and property.
How many illegal migrants are there? There was believed to be anywhere from 10–20 million in the U.S. before Trump’s first term. More came in while he was president, and 8–10 million more arrived on Biden’s watch. So Trump might have to deal with 25–30 million people.
Fortunately, securing the border and removing the invaders is a matter of time and the will to do it. First, close the border, stop the incentive programs, and re-implement the Remain in Mexico program. Start removing known gang members, criminals, the military-age Chinese who are here, and illegals who have already been ordered to leave the country. Complete the border wall. Process the rest.
Congress also needs to act. Chain migration and birthright citizenship for children of illegals need to end. A path to citizenship should be provided for those already established in the U.S. who have lived here as productive members of our society.
Even now, Democrats are claiming they will oppose efforts to deport these people. To thwart this, Trump can pick one of his most vociferous opponents. Then he can tell Governor X or Mayor Y that he will not bother illegals within their jurisdiction until perhaps 2026. When illegals realize they can escape deportation for maybe a year or more, where will they go? When Governor X or Mayor Y faces an invasion by the modern version of the Golden Horde, what will they do?
I rate the chances of completing the border wall at 99%, deporting the worst of the worst at 85%, and deporting 5,000,000 illegals by the end of 2026 at 50%.
Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.
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