Weekend before last, President Trump threaded the needle. On his orders, not one but three Iranian nuclear weapons development installations were blown to kingdom come. If those installations had souls, they’d be frolicking in Nirvana with the ten Iranian nuclear scientists that Israel Defense Forces knocked off.

Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions are severely crippled. The massive heaps of rubble buried underground are testaments to Trump’s resolve. But neocons are forlorn. Trump nixed regime change. It’s doubtful that the mullahs will try to retaliate any time soon. Persians, like Asians, tend to take longer views, anyway. If reprisals come, they’d come after Trump leaves office, though Trump’s hoped-for successor J.D. Vance might not take kindly to attempts by the mullahs at delayed gratification. Maybe the mullahs will have sense enough to quit, though we know that the neocons won’t quit. There’s an endless war out there waiting to happen.

The One, Big, Beautiful Bill

Back home, the One, Big, Beautiful Bill is supposed to land on Trump’s desk on July 4, Independence Day. Doubtful. J.D. Vance broke a tie in the Senate on Tuesday to kick the measure back to the House.

House GOP budget sticklers -- Chip Roy is prominent -- oppose the lack of budget cuts in the gargantuan continuing resolution (CR). They cite trillions of dollars in new costs to the federal government. Uncle Sam is already in hock an eyepopping $37 trillion. The Senate version is headed for revisions in the House. A conference committee will be required to hammer out differences. This process can’t drag out.

Reports the Epoch Times, June 29:

Based on analyses from the Joint Committee on Taxation, official House estimates, and committee reports, the pre-Byrd rule version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would boost primary deficits by $2.9 trillion through fiscal year 2034, increasing total borrowing to $3.5 trillion with interest costs, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

Stripping out provisions flagged by the Senate parliamentarian as violating the Byrd rule would raise the primary deficit impact to $3.5 trillion and push total borrowing to $4.2 trillion. Depending on final negotiations over measures such as the SALT deduction cap and other measures, total borrowing under the bill could climb as high as $4.5 trillion, per CRFB.

Speaking of the Senate parliamentarian, a Democrat appointee, why on earth did John Thune allow her to carve up the CR? Buck Sexton says that it’s “indefensibly dumb.” Thune cites “tradition” as the reason. That’s petting zoo Republican gibberish for fairness (as if that exists in power politics) and fear. If Thune canned the parliamentarian, goes the argument, then a future Democrat majority will dump a GOP parliamentarian. Indefensibly dumb understates it.

Green eyeshade Republicans and their blinkered staffers are scoring Trump’s signature legislation based on revenue projections less than the White House anticipates. Revenues generated from the tax cuts won’t cover new spending, they contend. Who’s right? I’m leaning toward Trump.

Also, bean counters are giving short shrift to burgeoning tariffs revenues. Trump’s efforts to slash red tape will save business and industry fortunes. And the president’s push to boost domestic conventional energy production will drive down energy costs. That will have a dramatic ripple effect throughout the economy and increase U.S. Treasury revenues.

A big complication to revving up the economy is Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Board. Powell and the board refuse to cut interest rates. Trump loathes Powell -- a first-term appointee -- and Powell is no Trump groupie. Powell’s resistance is personal and political. Powell’s animus is hurting the economy.

Tight border security and -- let’s hope -- deporting millions of illegals should help shed public service expenditures. Though maybe not. Democrats and almost-Democrat Susan Collins voted down an amendment to stop Medicaid payments to illegals. The amendment was necessary because Thune’s Democrat parliamentarian stripped a provision from the CR to eliminate coverage. Compassion has nothing to do with it. Democrats need illegals in census counts and to replenish voter pools. Healthcare outfits want public money to keep flowing.

D.C. swamp creatures don’t like tax cuts as a rule. Spending is another matter. Of course, Congress could act to restrain spending over time. Rand Paul and Chip Roy would be glad to oblige. The House has the power of the purse. How about passing a budget for a change? The last time a full budget was enacted was for fiscal year 1997. On January 7, 1997, Newt Gingrich was reelected House speaker. That wasn’t a coincidence.

Speaker Gingrich, in often tension-filled negotiations with Bill Clinton, balanced the federal budget. But the norm since then is for Congress and presidents to blow off debt and deficits. Sustained, general prosperity has emboldened recklessness.

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which dominates Democrat thinking, is crackpot “progressive” cover for profligacy. It’s as crackpot as “manmade” climate change.

It’s time-honored that representatives, senators, and presidents love to use taxpayer money -- and Uncle Sam’s credit cards -- to buy votes. FDR’s New Deal opened the door to mega-government and torrents of spending. Over the years, Republicans have gotten in on the act. Lord knows how many trillions of taxpayer dollars have been squandered for nearly a century. Trump has an historic chance to change that awful dynamic, but he can’t do it if average folk are struggling to pay bills. He needs an improving economy to supercharge DOGE.

Of course, the president believes in dynamic scoring. Declared Trump at Truth Social, June 29:

For all cost cutting Republicans, of which I am one, REMEMBER, you still have to get reelected. Don’t go too crazy! We will make it all up, times 10, with GROWTH, more than ever before

The president not only has more business acumen than Congress and legions of D.C. lifers bureaucrats combined, but he makes a point that Republicans need to keep the critical midterms in mind. Passing the One, Big, Beautiful Bill could have a profoundly positive impact on the midterms.

While Republicans are likely to retain the Senate, the House is very much up for grabs. The GOP majority is razor thin. It would only take losing a handful of House seats to stymie Trump’s final two years in office. It happened to Trump in 2018, and it was disastrous. When the House flipped to the Democrats, Nancy Pelosi initiated a glut of Trump investigations and a couple of impeachments.

Losing seats has happened to most every president in modern times. But there’s no iron law here. Even if the GOP emerges with only a bare minimum majority -- 218 seats -- that’s light years ahead of turning over the gavel to Hakeem Jeffries. Republicans have to walk a tightrope. Voters need to be upbeat come autumn of 2026. A resurgent economy isn’t an option. Getting the CR to Trump’s desk sooner than later is imperative.

Next year, the challenge for Trump and the GOP is to turn out base voters and enough of the casual and new voters that gave Trump the edge in swing states in 2024. That’s going to take a sophisticated, time- and labor-intensive ground game. Building operations require many months.

But sound operations won’t matter if the deliverables are lacking. Closing the border and pushing deportations are big wins. But jobs, paychecks, and relieving stresses on family budgets are pivotal. Congressional Republicans need to pass the CR like yesterday. Even with its flaws, the One, Big, Beautiful Bill is still a net positive. And it’s insurance against congressional Republicans having to shop their résumés after November 2026.

J. Robert Smith can be found at X. His handle is @JRobertSmith1. At Gab, @JRobertSmith. He blogs occasionally at Flyover.

Image: Gage Skidmore

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