We all expected a tumultuous presidential campaign. But I was not prepared to see a Kennedy endorse a Republican, nor the Cheneys endorse a far-Left Democrat. I was equally unprepared for the embrace of Trumpian policies by the very Democrats who hate him with the fire of a thousand suns. The coup that toppled Joe Biden caught me by surprise, as did the coronation of an unelected nominee, Kamala Harris. Not to mention two foiled assassinations buried by the media. And we still have a month to go.
Is there any way to make sense of this?
Political parties change. The South voted solidly Democratic for 100 years after the Civil War. When the Democrats nominated radical George McGovern in 1972, the Confederacy did the unthinkable and seceded again, this time to the Republicans. Undeterred, the Left continued its long march through the universities, the media, and the administrative state, alienating its working-class base every step of the way in favor of more affluent voters. Today, according to the Brookings Institute, Democratic counties control 70 percent of the country’s wealth, with nary a laborer nor a Southerner in sight.
Likewise, Northern country club Republicans dominated their party since the days of Calvin Coolidge. They favored big business and small government. Donald Trump and his merry band of populists routed these bluebloods. Today, Republicans are overwhelmingly commoners. They control only 30 percent of the country’s wealth.
In a fairly short period of time, the two major parties have largely switched electorates. The realignment of classes explains a lot about this campaign. Wonder why RFK, Jr. threw in with Trump? Like the Kennedy’s before him, he relates to the proletariat, and there is only one party that cares for them. Wonder why the Cheneys backed Harris? They are a lot more comfortable with her A-list celebrities than the likes of Hulk Hogan and Kid Rock, who are just not their kind of people.
But why would Harris abandon her cherished socialist positions against fracking and border controls? Why adopt Trumpian ideas like tax-free tips?
The reality is these issues don’t matter to her true constituents -- the nation’s well-off, well-educated, and well-connected elites. These high-end people pull down outsized salaries in Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Media, Big Universities, Big Climate, Big Finance, Big Charity, and Big Government. Add in the military-industrial complex represented by the Cheneys and you have a formidable new alliance dedicated to the status quo. These are the best people, the ones who slip effortlessly through the revolving doors of business and government and universities. They capture entire federal agencies with user fees and the promise of riches in the private sector. They are masters of war who see in every crisis an opportunity to sell more weapons systems. They release their flying monkeys on social media to attack whoever stands in their way. They are the new Establishment and enjoy all the entitlements attendant to their position. Who cares about the tips of waitresses? Who cares about a few million immigrants, more or less? The revolving doors must continue to turn.
What they really don’t like is a lot of loose talk about reform. When J.D. Vance criticizes forever wars, when RFK Jr. takes on government corruption in the food and health industries, when Elon Musk guarantees free speech and promises to clean house in Washington, when the infernal Donald Trump battles the media and the surveillance state to a draw, the creatures of the swamp rise as one against this existential threat to their privilege.
No one should doubt the determination of the values-lite Establishment. They cannot envision life without their influence, their careers, their social standing, and their treasure. They cannot abide someone else in possession of these wonderful things -- let alone someone like Donald Trump.
Bernie Sanders threatened the Establishment in 2016 and again in 2020 with his populist message. The Democrat party bosses suffocated him like a troublesome old man in his bed. The same bosses took out presidential hopefuls Minnesota senator Al Franken and New York governor Andrew Cuomo with innovative “me too” tactics. They tried to ban Trump and RFK Jr. from the ballot and unleashed a plague of lawfare suits on them both. The defenestration of Biden and the anointment of Harris should come as no surprise. They are just two more backroom moves by an Establishment determined to hang onto power and perks of power: understandable in rough and tumble of American politics, but not a good look for the party that promises to protect democracy and guarantee the sacredness of the ballot.
The assassination attempts on Trump drew stifled yawns from the media and platitudes from the Biden administration -- but no real action. The non-response betrays the inner workings of the politico-media complex, where Democrats and illiberal news outlets share a common but unspoken understanding: better to say nothing than give Trump the sympathy vote. Never mind the historic import of an assassination and its impact on a close election. Better to move onto the next news cycle of fact checking and mean tweets. No one’s going to notice. They are not wrong.
So, perhaps this campaign is not as perplexing as it seems. The strange political bedfellows can be explained by a realignment of the working class within the Republican party and a consolidation of elites under the Democratic banner. The policy flip-flops of Harris mean nothing to the plutocrats who now own the Democrat party -- just as long as their privileges remain untouched. The perpetual coups are brazen, bare-knuckled tactics by the Establishment to stay in office. The non-coverage of the threats against Trump’s life is depressingly familiar.
But Trump is determined, too. By his own admission, Trump was not ready to assume the presidency in 2016. He did not have a cabinet in waiting because he never thought he would win. He did not have the support of his own party. It showed. The Establishment outmaneuvered Trump and his newbies time and time again, starting with Comey’s FBI and ending with two impeachments. In the process, Trump got a bruising from the Beltway. He also got a political education.
This time around Trump has the full backing of his party, which is comprised of loyalists rather than foot-dragging traditional Republicans. He and his team are ready for the fight. They go to war with many advantages. X can no longer cancel them. Zuckerberg has promised to “sit this one out.” Illiberal media bias is an open secret, even a punchline, on late night TV. Republicans have removed from the rolls historically important Democrat voters, such as dead people, convicts, and illegal aliens. More importantly, Trump now understands the objectives and tactics of the Establishment.
I do not expect either Harris or Trump to lead a conventional administration, carefully balancing various interest groups against each other. This will be a bar fight for control of the government.
Harris will attempt to lock in the Establishment for a generation by abolishing the Electoral College and with it, the state’s rights that have checked federal power for 230 years. She will pack the Supreme Court. She will silence minority opinions by ending the filibuster. She will protect the ability of the Establishment to self-deal, invade, and generally pillage the nation -- all behind closed doors. As for the deplorable working class who comprise the other half of the country -- let them eat joy.
Trump will do exactly the opposite: he will expose and blow up the deep state. Imagine RFK, Jr. running the FDA. Imagine J.D. Vance watching over the border. Imagine Tulsi Gabbard riding herd on the Pentagon. Imagine Elon Musk, who knows a thing or two about government contracts, investigating the sweetheart deals of the Establishment. This is a committed, seasoned corps of reformers, who understand the game and are truly capable of draining the swamp.
The campaign has been unpredictable and vitriolic, and reflects an electorate deeply split by class divisions. But the lead-up to the election was just the pre-season. The real game is going to be a brawl.
Image: AT via Magic Studio
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