In his latest proposal to end the war in Ukraine, former President Donald Trump reportedly offered Vladimir Putin a dangerous concession: de jure recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The proposal appears to accept the idea that Crimea was once part of Russia and that returning it to Russia would restore historical justice.
This logic is not just politically reckless, it is historically and legally indefensible. It echoes the imperial narrative Putin himself has long advanced: that modern Russia is the rightful heir to the entire Russian Empire and entitled to reclaim its lost territories. But history tells a very different story.
Crimea was never part of Russia, and the Russian Federation is not a successor to the entire Russian Empire. The Russian Federation is a successor only to such parts of that empire as Great Russia and Siberia, where the ethnic Russian population was concentrated. But the empire had many other parts, including Crimea.
The Crimean Mountains and Yalta by DiscoverWithDima. CC BY-SA 4.0.
Crimea was never part of Great Russia. It was annexed by Catherine the Great in 1783 from the Crimean Khanate, a vassal of the Ottoman Empire. Though incorporated into the Russian Empire, it remained an administrative borderland—never part of Russia’s ethnic or cultural heartland. Crimea has always been a multiethnic region, home to Crimean Tatars, Greeks, Armenians, Jews, and others. It was never an ancestral Russian homeland.
When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Ukraine emerged as a sovereign state with Crimea within its borders—a fact acknowledged by Russia itself in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 2003 Russia-Ukraine Border Treaty.
Russia’s claim that Crimea is “inherently Russian” is not grounded in historical truth, ethnic composition, or international law. The 2014 annexation was not a historical correction—it was a violation of international law, a breach of treaty, and an illegal land grab cloaked in nostalgia.
Worse still, if Trump endorses Russia’s claim to Crimea based on its imperial past, he effectively legitimizes a broader campaign of territorial revisionism. If Russia can seize Crimea the grounds of being the successor to the Russian empire, what prevents it from claiming its other parts, all of Ukraine, or the Baltic states, or even Finland and Poland? This is not a defense of ethnic self-determination. It is an ideological resurrection of imperialism. And that is precisely what Putin promotes– and what Trump seems perilously close to endorsing. But if Trump —or any American politician —accepts this premise, they must understand what they are legitimizing: not a narrowly defined border adjustment, but a framework for permanent imperial revisionism
Such logic resurrects the 19th-century principle of imperial conquest over the post–World War II international order that prioritized sovereignty and territorial integrity. International law exists precisely to prevent these kinds of revanchist spirals. If empires could reassert claims based on past glories, Turkey could demand Syria and Iraq, the UK could reassert dominion over India, China might claim Outer Mongolia, and Mongolia could in turn declare itself the successor to Tengiz Khan’s empire and reclaim both Russia and China. We would return to chaos.
Trump and his supporters, however, seem less concerned with “formalities” than with “reality.” They may argue that Crimea “is lost” to Ukraine, and that recognizing Crimea as Russian reflects geopolitical “reality.” But even that is false. Ukraine has already severely degraded Russia’s military presence in Crimea—crippling the Black Sea Fleet, striking airfields and air defense systems, and threatening the Kerch Bridge. Of all territories under Russian occupation, Crimea may be the most vulnerable to Ukrainian liberation.
Probably the main reason for Trump’s proposal is that he feels he must make some concessions to Putin to lure him into a ceasefire. He believes that Russia is winning the war and should get something in exchange for stopping the fighting. But that misreads the situation. Russia is not winning the war. Its troops are exhausted, its economy strained, and its resources dwindling. Putin needs a ceasefire not less than Ukraine does. He is bluffing because he hopes that in addition to the ceasefire he can get a lot of concessions, and Trump seems to be falling into Putin’s trap. He has already fed Putin a truckload of carrots, which has only provoked more killings.
It is time to take up the stick. When Putin realizes that he will get any concessions from Trump, and instead will get only new sanctions, he will most likely sign a ceasefire.
It is unlikely that a permanent peace between Russia and Ukraine can be negotiated now. Trump is mistaken to think that he can bully Zelensky or appease Putin into signing such a deal, because neither has the authority to compromise in a way that is acceptable to the other side. Putin is beholden to an ideology that demands total victory over Ukraine, and Zelensky is beholden to the Ukrainian people, who refuse to give up either their independence or their land.
While the prospects for peace are slim, a temporary unconditional ceasefire, which Zelensky has already agreed to, is possible, which means no more shooting, no more prisoners, no more kidnapped children from Russia, and nothing more. All other issues should be put aside for further negotiations.
So, no concessions are needed. But Trump’s proposal has many. The most dangerous part of Trump’s proposal may not be Crimea at all, but the suggestion that sanctions against Russia should be lifted. Ceasefires always end, sometimes with peace, but more often with resumed hostilities, and we must be prepared for that. Our goal is to defeat Putin’s regime, and to do that, Ukraine must emerge from the ceasefire stronger and Russia weaker. Regardless of the ceasefire, we must maintain all sanctions against Russia and perhaps strengthen them and increase our military support for Ukraine.
President Trump’s instincts may be rooted in deal-making. But this is not a negotiation, it is a confrontation with a regime bent on restoring the empire. Giving Putin what he wants will not end the war. It will invite the next one.
Source link