Nolte: JD Vance’s Debate Win Erases Kamala’s 4-Point National Lead
Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson via Flickr
The national presidential race between sitting Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump looks like it is tightening.
Monday’s Yahoo News poll shows both candidates all tied up at 47 percent among likely voters. Less than a month ago, this same pollster found CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar up by four points over Trump, 50 to 46 percent.
The pollster writes, “Vice President Kamala Harris’s narrow national lead over former President Donald Trump has tightened in the wake of a well-received debate performance last week by Ohio Sen. JD Vance[.]”
“The new … survey does suggest that the contest has shifted in a consistent direction with just one month left to go until Election Day,” the pollster continues, “that is, back toward the statistical stalemate that prevailed before Harris’s strong September debate performance gave her a temporary boost.”
The Yahoo poll also showed that Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, was seen as the winner of the recent vice presidential debate by 41 percent of those polled, compared to just 32 percent who said the same about Kamala’s running mate, Minneapolis Gov. Tim Walz.
Among independents, 42 percent gave the debate win to Vance, compared to just 23 percent for Walz.
Among those who watched the debate, 41 percent said it made them look more favorably at Vance, while 25 percent said his performance made them less favorable. Only 33 percent felt more favorable towards Walz after the debate, while 23 percent felt less favorable.
Overall, Vance has a 37 percent favorable rating (up from 31 percent last month), while Walz is seen favorably by 43 percent, which is a jump from 39 percent. Vance and Walz have respective unfavorable ratings of 48 and 40 percent.
In the overall national race, if you look only at the five October polls in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, one poll is a tie, three give Harris a lead of three points, two points, and one point, and one poll has Trump leading by two points. Last month, Harris posted national leads of four points in two polls and five points in two more.
In this screwy race it’s risky to read too much into anything. Every time you think you have an idea of which way the wind is blowing the wind turns around and makes a fool of you. We could get a slew of national polls tomorrow that say, well, anything. But as of this very moment, it looks liker Trump might have some momentum.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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