Nolte: Poll Shows Trump +2 Nationally, +8 in Swing States
AP Photo/Evan Vucci
In the latest HarrisX/Forbes national poll, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by two points, 51 to 49 percent, in a head-to-head matchup.
When third-party candidates are included, Trump leads by a single point, 49 to 48 percent.
The pollster considers this a “noticeable shift from Harris’ four-point lead last month” when Harris led 52 to 48 percent.
This online poll of 1,244 likely voters was taken between Oct. 21-22.
In the seven battleground states — Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan — Trump is up eight points over Harris, 54 to 46 percent.
With polling all over the place, the trends matter more than anything, especially when you can compare the same poll over time. So Forbes is correct. Harris lost her four-point lead in only five or six weeks. That’s a six-point shift in Trump’s direction.
The national shift towards Trump in this poll is no fluke. In the RealClearPolitics average poll of national polls, Kamala’s lead is down to just over a half-point, at 0.6 points. At the beginning of the month, she was 2.2 points ahead.
At this same time in 2016, Trump was down nationally to Hillary Clinton by 5.9 points. In 2020, Trump was down to Joe Biden by eight points.
Trump has never polled better than he is polling right now.
In those seven crucial swing states that will decide the election, the story is the same: Little by little, the former president has edged into a lead in all seven. In five of the seven swing states, Trump’s lead is less than a single point. Nevertheless, it is a steady lead.
Additionally, among those who know, the early vote so far looks extraordinarily good for Team Trump. That could change on a dime over the next week or ten days, but right now Republicans are thrilled with what they are seeing, while Democrats stress over their usually reliable base staying home (so far) in larger numbers than expected this many days in.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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