Poll: Amid Trump Fight, South Africa’s Long-Time Opposition Leads for First Time Themba Hadebe / Associated Press

The Democratic Alliance (DA), which has been South Africa’s leading opposition party for decades, has overtaken the once-dominant African National Congress (ANC) for the first time in one of that country’s most respected polls.

The Institute of Race Relations (IRR) revealed Monday that the DA was polling higher than the ANC, with the DA at 30.3% to the ANC’s 29.7% — a stunning result, even though well within the poll’s 4% margin of error.

The two parties are currently serving together in a government of national unity (GNU), after the ANC won a plurality in the 2024 elections but fell below 50% for the first time since the first fully multi-racial democratic elections in 1994.

In addition, the IRR poll found that the DA, historically a white-led party, had tripled its black support.

In a statement, the IRR summarized the results of the poll (original emphasis):

Key findings are:

DA overtakes ANC: For the first time in IRR polling, the DA (30.3%) edges past the ANC (29.7%). The ANC’s proposal to raise VAT has contributed significantly to this shift.

Tripled support from black voters: DA support among black voters has surged from 5% to 18%, demonstrating the political potential for the DA to grow its support across traditional divides by focusing on pragmatic policy issues, especially economic concerns.

ANC support falls: Following a temporary rebound after the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU), ANC support has now fallen below 30%. Where the public perceives the GNU as a vehicle for political moderation and collaboration, the ANC has estranged voters with its continued pursuit of unpopular socio-economic policies, of which the VAT increase has proved a costly example.

The ANC’s decline over the years — it once commanded roughly 70% of the vote — has typically helped other black-led parties rather than the DA. However, the DA appears to be picking up at least some black support.

Though there are several factors involved, including a budget fight in which the ANC insisted on raising the regressive value added tax (VAT), one issue dominating recent headlines has been the ANC’s fight with the U.S. and with President Donald Trump in particular.

The Trump fight has threatened South Africa’s trade relations and caused widespread anxiety about the country’s economic future as well as its foreign policy.

Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.

Source link