The long-pervasive belief in American military supremacy is a myth; a mirage; a fallacious narrative fashioned from fables and Hollywood films. The US military has not won a war since WW2. They have mercilessly bombed the crap out of many smaller, weaker countries, killed millions of people, and yet never once achieved strategic victory. Not since WW2 have they faced anything even faintly approximating high-intensity warfare. Indeed, never at any time in history has the US military fought against a great power adversary at the height of its strength. And now, here in 2024, the US military has never been in a more weakened state relative to any of its potential great power adversaries — namely, Russia, China, and Iran….An epoch of great changes is upon us. —Will Schryver @imetatronink

Let’s cut to the chase: On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered his most ominous statement to date. He said:

“Iran is behind all the threats against us. They launched hundreds of missiles against us in one of the biggest attacks in history. No country in the world would accept such an attack – Israel will not accept it either. Israel has the duty and the right to defend itself and respond to such attacks – and this is what we are going to do” (MegatronRon)

The statement has been interpreted by many as a straightforward pledge to launch a retaliatory strike on Iran. According to reports in the media, Israel’s war cabinet is debating whether to strike Iran’s oil infrastructure or its nuclear facilities. But whatever the target, Iranian officials have warned that ‘any Israeli attack’ will be met with an overwhelming and immediate response aimed primarily at Israel’s vital infrastructure. The warning was delivered in a short missive that was passed on to the Biden administration via allies in Qatar. The contents were later revealed in an article published by Aljazeera:

“We sent a message to Washington via Qatar, which addressed the situation in the region after our last strike on the Zionist entity, and in which we confirmed the end of the phase of unilateral self-restraint and that individual self-restraint does not secure the requirements of our national security, and any Israeli attack will be met with an unconventional response that includes infrastructure.”

In short, Iran no longer believes that simply demonstrating the capability of its missile systems is changing Israel’s behavior. So, the next time Iran is forced to attack, it’s going to inflict as much damage on Israel as humanely possible. It doesn’t get much blunter than that. If Israel attacks Iran, Iran is going to ‘bomb the hell’ out of Israel. Full stop.

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And that is why—as of Saturday afternoon—the Biden administration has deployed “Dozens of additional U.S. fighter jets (to) the Middle East”, along with 40,000 US military personnel and two carrier strike groups, all of which will be used in the upcoming Israeli war on Iran.

This is ‘the state of play’ as of Sunday, October 6. We are on the brink of a full-blown regional war that will inevitably involve both the United States and Russia.

But why would Biden agree to support Israel in a war against Iran when Iran just proved that its state-of-the-art ballistic missiles far exceed anything in Israel’s arsenal and are obviously capable of destroying Israeli military sites, energy platforms, intelligence centers and vital infrastructure? This is from a post by the Armchair Warlord:

The Iranian strike on Nevatim and Tel Nof Airfields … in Israel on Tuesday completely validated my analysis from April. In April the Iranians demonstrated they could defeat Israel’s BMD system at will and strike precision targets – this time they did damage. Video of the engagement suggests that the vast majority of the Iranian salvo – probably more than 80% – penetrated and struck targets in Israel. …..

The Iranians can be expected to have damaged aircraft, infrastructure, SAM systems, and AD radars at both airfields, as well as hitting several other targets elsewhere in the country less intensively. The effectiveness of the strike can be seen by simply observing the Israeli reaction – rather than an immediate counterattack they have withdrawn for deliberations, with some talk of a deescalatory downward-step retaliation against the Houthis or Hezbollah. The reason for this is simple – the Iranians have now demonstrated the ability to overwhelm the Israeli AD system at will and precisely strike targets, and with their missile shield ineffective the Israeli leadership is coming to terms with the fact they run a small and isolated country with a limited amount of critical infrastructure

At this point the Ayatollah can push a button and turn the lights out in Israel, and no amount of American money can prevent that. (Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW)

And, although the Israeli-friendly media has tried to sugarcoat Iran’s October 1 attack, (and make it look like a ‘big nothingburger’) some of the mainstream journalists have come to their senses and realize that madman Bibi wants ‘to have another go’ at Iran. Which, by the way, would be suicide. Check out this piece in today’s Guardian which is aptly titled: Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems:

Satellite and social media footage has shown missile after missile striking the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, and setting off at least some secondary explosions, indicating that despite the highly touted effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defences, Iran’s strikes were more effective than had been previously admitted.

Experts who analysed the footage noted at least 32 direct hits on the airbase. None appeared to have caused major damage, but some landed close to hangars that house Israel’s F-35 jets, among the country’s most prized military assets….

“The core fact remains that Iran has proven it can hit Israel hard if it so chose,” writes Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the research and analysis group CNA, who analysed the satellite images for a blogpost. “Airbases are hard targets, and the sort of target that likely won’t produce many casualties. Iran could choose a different target – say, a densely packed IDF ground forces base, or a target within a civilian area – and a missile strike there would produce a large number of [casualties].”…

Israel’s counterattack appears to be imminent.… local journalists have been briefed that the response to the Iranian strike is imminent, perhaps to be timed just before or after the 7 October anniversary of the Hamas attacks.

The target options include Iranian military facilities – including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military sites or command and control centres – and energy infrastructure, such as oil refineries, which could lead to a similar strike on Israel. There is also the option of a direct strike on Iran’s nuclear programme, which Tehran has warned is one of its red lines and which Biden has warned Netanyahu not to do….

“ballistic missile ping-pong between Israel and Iran that at any moment can spiral out of control, can result in casualties in Israel that would then result in further escalation, and that could then pull the United States in” – resulting in Iranian allies targeting US forces and bases in the region.

In the attack, Vaez said, Iran had “used their most advanced weapons, and they have sufficient stockpile of being able to do that for months. That would be the world we’ll be ­living in unless somebody pulls the plug on this cycle of escalation. Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems, The Guardian

Think about that for a minute: Iranian ballistic missiles landed 32 direct hits on the Nevatim airbase, the most heavily defended airbase on the planet. The Iranians have shown that they can put their missiles on any target in any location in Israel putting at risk “the country’s most prized military assets.” That’s worth mulling over, don’t you think?

So, now, we are finally hearing the truth about the October 1 attack, mainly because Israel’s supporters are worried that Netanyahu is going to recklessly provoke Iran in order to drag the United States into the fray. But doesn’t Bibi know that such an action would wind up inflicting incalculable damage to Israeli infrastructure as well as the loss of an untold number of Israeli civilians?

Sure, he knows. But he’s betting that it will all be worth it if the US is able to weaken Iran to the extent that Israel will emerge as the dominant power in the region. You see, in Bibi’s eyes, Iraq, Syria and Libya were all great victories because they helped to reinforce Israel’s ambition to become the regional hegemon. Netanyahu’s recent speech at the United Nations further underscored this point. Here’s Bibi:

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Source: TUR

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This is the map I presented here last year…. It shows Israel and its Arab partners forming a land bridge connecting Asia and Europe. Between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, across this bridge, we will lay rail lines, energy pipelines, and fiber optic cables, and this will serve the betterment of 2 billion people….

…. to truly realize the blessing of a new Middle East, we must continue the path we paved with the Abraham Accords four years ago. Above all, this means achieving a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

And having seen the blessings that we’ve already brought with the Abraham Accords, the millions of Israelis who have already flown back and forth across the Arabian Peninsula over the skies of Saudi Arabia to the Gulf countries, the trade, the tourism, the joint ventures, the peace—I say to you, what blessings such a peace with Saudi Arabia would bring….

It would be a boon to the security and economy of our two countries. It would boost trade and tourism across the region. It would help transform the Middle East into a global juggernaut….

Our two countries could cooperate on energy, water, agriculture, artificial intelligence, and many, many other fields. Such a peace, I am sure, would be a true pivot of history. It would usher in a historic reconciliation between the Arab world and Israel, between Islam and Judaism, between Mecca and Jerusalem….

Such a peace would be the foundation for an even broader Abrahamic alliance, and that alliance would include the United States, Israel’s current Arab peace partners, Saudi Arabia, and others who choose the blessing of peace…. I believe this vision can materialize much sooner than people think. And as the Prime Minister of Israel, I will do everything in my power to make it happen. This is an opportunity that we and the world should not let go by. Full text of Netanyahu’s UN speech, Times of Israel

Pax Israel: The entire Middle East and millions of subjugated Arabs languishing permanently under the Israeli boot-heel.

This is the Zionist dream in a nutshell; a peaceful, prosperous region in which the dominant power, Israel, sits at the center of a critical economic corridor that links the production capability and gas reserves of the East with the technology and bustling markets of the West. Netanyahu is expounding on the geopolitical strategy that will be implemented to compete with China’s massive Belt and Road infrastructure project, the only difference being that Tel Aviv will be calling the shots, not Washington. Surprised?

You shouldn’t be.

But what about the United States? What will happen if the Biden administration recklessly backs Israel and finds itself in a direct confrontation with Iran? How will that turn out? This is a long excerpt from an illuminating article by Kit Klarenberg titled Collapsing Empire: Iran Throws Down Gauntlet. It helps to answer that critical question:

… the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), a powerful … Zionist lobby …. laid out in forensic detail how the Empire will be… at grave disadvantage, in all-out hot war with Iran.

Titled U.S. Bases in the Middle East: Overcoming the Tyranny of Geography, …

the “most important” conclusion drawn is that Washington’s “current basing array detracts from our ability to deter Iran and fight them effectively in a high-intensity scenario…. As such, JINSA notes, “a theater-level war with Iran would be a war of missiles and drones,” and Tehran’s April 13th attack on Israel was a “comprehensive demonstration of Iranian operational design.”

… The most pressing and “obvious” takeout was, “for the defenders of the Gulf, it will be a war of strike aircraft, tankers, and air and missile defense…and here is the problem”:

“These aircraft are largely based at locations along the southern coast of the Arabian Gulf…an artifact of planning against Russian incursions in the 1970s, and the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns of the early decades of this century. They are close to Iran, which means they have a short trip to the fight…but that is also their great vulnerability. They are so close to Iran that it takes but five minutes or less for missiles launched from Iran to reach their bases.”…

Most damagingly of all:

“These bases are all defended by Patriot and other defensive systems. Unfortunately, at such close range to Iran, the ability of the attacker to mass fires [sic] and overwhelm the defense is very real.”…

In closing his roadmap to Tehran’s victory, McKenzie bitterly laments, “it is hard to escape the conclusion that our current basing structure is poorly postured for the most likely fight that will emerge.” The Empire “will not be able to maintain these bases in a full-throated conflict, because they will be rendered unusable by sustained Iranian attack.” Imperial overreach in West Asia has now fallen victim to “the simple tyranny of geography.”….

“The Iranians can see this problem just as clearly as we do, and that is one of the reasons why they have created their large and highly capable missile and drone force.”..

The question of whether the battlefield primacy of the Resistance in West Asia will finally be comprehended by their adversaries, in light of October 1st, remains an open one. As Russian military strategist Igor Korotchenko once observed, “this Anglo-Saxon breed understands nothing but force.” Collapsing Empire: Iran Throws Down Gauntlet, Kit Klarenberg, Global Delinquents

Cakewalk??

Massacre is more like it.

If the Biden administration decides to assist Israel in a war against Iran, the US will see many of its military bases razed to the ground, many of its warships sunk or disabled, and most of the region’s oil platforms ‘vanished’ in a ball of fire. This isn’t a dispute that can be resolved through force of arms, and any attempt to do so will trigger a sharp decline in US power and influence in the region and around the world. It’s no overstatement to say that America’s future hangs in the balance. The question is whether Team Biden will pull back from the cliff-edge or not.

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Source: TUR

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Birds Not Bombs: Let’s Fight for a World of Peace, Not War 

This article was originally published on The Unz Review.

Michael Whitney is a renowned geopolitical and social analyst based in Washington State. He initiated his career as an independent citizen-journalist in 2002 with a commitment to honest journalism, social justice and World peace.

He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).  

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