Moldova’s future is expected to be a very dark one whose trajectory is already set and might be impossible to offset.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu was re-elected on Sunday after winning 55.35% of the vote, though the opposition refused to recognize the results since their candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo reportedly received 51% of the votes cast at home before the diaspora’s piled in around midnight. He only obtained 25.98% of the vote during the first round late last month compared to Sandu’s 42.45%, but other parties’ voters seemingly rallied behind him during the run-off, only to be dealt a defeat by the diaspora.

This outcome was predictable since that electorate’s European members tend to be mostly pro-Western and accordingly had the full support of the state behind them, while their more balanced counterparts in Russia where half a million live only had two polling stations opened with just 10,000 printed ballots. This was the same state of affairs that plagued the first round, which also coincided with a referendum on EU membership that passed by just 12,000 votes or a 0.78% margin as explained here at the time.

Moldova’s consequently deepening socio-political divisions, which now go far beyond its unresolved conflict with the separatist region of Transnistria that hosts approximately 1,500 Russian peacekeepers, could dangerously lead to this country following neighboring Ukraine’s path. What took place during the recent referendum and the second presidential round was a constitutional coup whereby the ruling liberal–globalists defrauded voters in order to falsely legitimize their radical pro-Western policies.

For all intents and purposes, Moldova is already a de facto NATO member whose ties with the bloc might even be formalized through a forthcoming referendum for removing the country’s constitutional neutrality clause, all in the name of “teaching Russia a lesson”. About that, both votes were plagued by unsubstantiated claims of Russian meddling, which led to the West misportraying their outcomes as “victories over Russia” in order to boost morale amidst Russia’s on-the-ground gains in Ukraine.

Considering these ignoble achievements, it therefore wouldn’t be surprising if they replicate their fraud scheme for a third time in order to bring Moldova into NATO, which could be spun as yet another “defeat for Russia” after Finland and Sweden recently formalized their decades-long relationships with the bloc. As with Moldova, they were already de facto members, but officially joining NATO was meant to inflict a psychological and political blow to Russia. The same can be said about Moldova’s motives for joining too.

The risk though is that any such move could provoke the opposition into resorting to “extreme protests” out of desperation to preserve their country’s increasingly nominal independence. Seizing government buildings and carrying out acts of violence can’t be ruled out, but in that scenario, their speculative attempts to orchestrate a “multipolar Maidan” would be framed as “Russian meddling”. A hardcore crackdown could follow, and Romanian troops might be requested to assist if it spirals out of control.

The abovementioned forecast isn’t being shared to demoralize the opposition, but simply to raise awareness of how much the odds are stacked against them. The ruling liberal-globalists have a monopoly on the use of force and enjoy the West’s support. They could therefore use lethal force against riotous demonstrators without any fear of Western condemnation or sanctions. Moldova’s future is thus expected to be a very dark one whose trajectory is already set and might be impossible to offset.

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This article was originally published on the author’s Substack, Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a regular contributor to Global Research. 

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