The world is witnessing the final throes of the so-called “rules-based” international system established after World War II. This system, institutionalized through Bretton Woods, the United Nations, the World Bank, the IMF, and NATO, cemented American hegemony. The post-1990 era marked the full dominance of a unipolar liberal capitalist order. After 9/11, the unipolar order, under the leadership of U.S. neocons and Zionists backed by globalist financial capital, focused on redrawing maps and reshaping geopolitics in Europe, Western Asia, and Africa. In effect, a passive World War III officially began.

Around Israel, countries like Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, and Syria were fragmented via balkanization, creating an ever-expanding security belt, while NATO’s membership grew from 16 to 32 in Europe. The post-Cold War unity of the U.S. and the collective West in fact opened the gates to a new era of neo-colonialism. Under the pretexts of exporting democracy, human rights violations, and the possession of weapons of mass destruction, resource-rich states that also opposed Israel were toppled. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, and Lebanon are prime examples. A new era began when China and Russia jointly opposed this neo-colonial order.

Israel First Policy

In short, the U.S., once an exporter of rules and order under Pax Americana, started to prioritize Israel fully—especially after the 1973 Yom Kippur War—turning it into a forward operating base. The main reason was the unprecedented historical convergence of Jewish capital and Zionist policy in the U.S. through neocons. Blackmail files (e.g., Epstein files) under the control of AIPAC and MOSSAD and bribes to U.S. senators and Congress members played a major role. This accelerated during Trump’s first term (2017–2021): Jerusalem was declared Israel’s capital, and the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran was scrapped. Despite the outbreak of the Ukraine War under Biden, Israel’s radical government, following its attacks on October 7, 2023, launched an unprecedented massacre in Gaza and attempted to wipe it off the map. In Biden’s final term, with significant Turkish support, the fall of the Syrian regime became the greatest gift to Israel. Syrian airspace was thus opened as the shortest route for Iran.

.

President visit the Western Wall, Jerusalem, May 22, 2017. Credit: Photo credit: Matty Stern/U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv.

.

The Second Trump Term

Although Trump came to power on January 20, 2025, promising to end all wars, he too could not resist the Zionist neocons under the command of global financial capital. The genocide in Gaza continued. Netanyahu, recognizing the depletion of U.S. power in Ukraine by late 2023, sought to harness the remaining American might for Israel’s geopolitical goals before the U.S. pivoted to the Asia-Pacific front. Empowered by the strategic advantage from Syria’s collapse, Netanyahu activated the same scenario against Iran six months later. The aim was not to prevent nuclear weapons but to provoke internal rebellion, regime change, and eventual fragmentation of Iran, bringing it under global financial capital and U.S./ Israeli geopolitical control—as happened in Syria. The October 7 Hamas raid was used as a pretext. Israel is enacting colonial policies reminiscent of those implemented by the U.S. and Australia on the lands they settled. In Palestine, Israel, having suppressed the local population for decades, has now moved into a phase of outright elimination. Tensions from Israel’s assassination policy led to limited missile engagements with Iran in April and October 2024.

However, Israel’s June 13, 2025 attack on Iran marked the final offensive. Netanyahu’s government imposed one of the greatest faits accomplis in U.S. history. Despite widespread American opposition to war, a new front was opened, and the MAGA-claiming U.S. government returned to the paradigm of perpetual war desired by Zionist neocons and globalist capital. Trump’s “America First” doctrine is now over. Israel went so far in this war that it irresponsibly attacked Natanz and later Arak nuclear facilities, ignoring international laws prohibiting such actions and threatening nuclear fallout across the region. It is now clear Trump has fallen fully under Israeli control.

Current Outcomes of the Iran-Israel Conflict

When Israel, backed by the U.S., launched its June 13 attacks, it expected a massive uprising in Iran. Initially, Israel achieved strategic surprise through asymmetric tactics, assassinating top military and civilian leaders and scientists, and severely damaging Iran’s air defenses. They assumed this would disrupt Iran’s missile command and control and replicate their Arab world successes against a Persian state. However, within 16 hours, Iran recovered and began a planned response: cheap, short-range drones and missiles first, followed by mid-range, and finally advanced hypersonic and ballistic missiles, striking Israel’s counterforce and countervalue targets in stages.

In prior attacks in April and October 2024, Israel heavily relied on U.S., U.K., French, and Jordanian aircraft and naval missile defenses. This time, only five U.S. Aegis destroyers in the Arabian Sea supported the Israeli offensive—with unclear effectiveness. The U.S. Navy had depleted much of its expensive air-defense munitions in Yemen operations since March 2025 and thus began limiting their use, reducing assistance to Israel. By the end of the first week, Iran’s drones and missiles were inflicting serious damage. Israel, used to short wars, faced sustained attrition. Its Iron Dome system, defending a 140 km^2 area, became saturated and struggled. Contrary to expectations of creating panic and revolt in Iran, even regime opponents rallied to the state. Had Iran previously procured modern fighter jets from China or Russia, it would be in an even stronger position. Even so, its missile stockpiles and manufacturing capability are enabling sustained resistance. Israel is now heavily dependent on U.S. aid and cannot afford to wait.

The U.S. Enters the War

On June 22, 2025—nine days after Israel’s initial strike and before two U.S. carrier groups arrived in the Arabian Sea and Mediterranean—the U.S. launched 5–6 GBU-57 bunker busters at Fardow and 30 Tomahawk missiles at Isfahan and Natanz.

.

Natanz nuclear facility (Public Domain)

.

This attack occurred without congressional approval. Despite international law banning military strikes on nuclear facilities, the U.S. committed this serious breach, seemingly at the political discretion of Trump and indirectly Netanyahu. As of this writing, the U.S. has not completed a damage assessment, and no contamination has been reported. Israel claims Iran’s nuclear program has been set back significantly. In response, Iran declared:

“American targets are now legitimate, and we will continue our nuclear program under international legal rights.”

Iran’s next move is awaited. Though unlikely, Iran may backtrack and return to negotiations, but it is more probable that escalation will continue. That could mean further war with Israel and military actions such as striking U.S. targets, closing the Strait of Hormuz, or attacking oil/gas facilities in GCC countries. Thus, with the U.S. now directly involved, the Israel-Iran war has escalated from a regional conflict to a global test of power balances. This attack is a major gamble for Trump. From now on, the U.S. is an active combatant in West Asia. Iran’s missile reserves and naval forces capable of closing Hormuz were not destroyed by the 13-ton bombs or 20 Tomahawks. Its nuclear program may be delayed, but Iran’s resolve to continue the war remains strong. Lack of response might bring temporary peace but would also embolden regime change efforts. The attack on Iran during the ongoing Gaza genocide will generate global backlash beyond Western governments. The

U.S. has never succeeded through aerial bombardments alone. This time will be even harder. As of June 22, 0600 Turkish time, 50 large tankers have amassed near the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a potential imminent closure. Experts predict oil prices could surge to $200/barrel. The U.S. has opened Pandora’s box, and Iran will not easily back down. Anti-U.S. and anti-Israel sentiment will intensify in Iraq, Yemen, and among Iran’s allies. It will also deepen Russia and China’s anti-U.S. stance, putting American interests in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait under pressure.

.

.

New Geopolitical Polarization

With Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran, the fragile global peace and stability, already shaken by the Ukraine- Russia war, has descended into a multilayered crisis. Just as NATO fought Russia via Ukraine, now the U.S. has been drawn into a war with Iran through Israel. In this conflict, China and Russia are creating asymmetric balance via intelligence, economics, naval presence, and diplomacy without direct intervention. A resistance axis challenging U.S. hegemony through the Ukraine war is now evolving via Iran. BRICS now forms the spine of this axis. The U.S. is trying to break BRICS unity through every opportunity. India already appears to side with the U.S. and Israel—a move that will likely draw Russian retaliation. Pakistan, for example, hasn’t forgotten Israeli technicians supporting Indian drones in their recent conflict. Meanwhile, China and Russia assist Iran via satellite intelligence, economic bypass systems (CIPS, crypto, barter), naval presence (in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea), electronic warfare, and cyber support. Countries like Russia, China, and North Korea, knowing they could be next if resistance fails, are aligning geopolitically with Iran. The global financial-capitalist structure fuels continuous wars and destruction while exploiting them for new postmodern colonial ventures.

What Should Turkey Do?

The globalist financial oligarchy, neocons, and Zionists behind the U.S.’s constant-war paradigm have opened a new front with the June 22 attack. This will bring more blood and tears to humanity. Turkey must now close the Kürecik radar station to avoid participation in the U.S.’s war on Iran and take national control of NATO-assigned assets. It must implement policies to increase oil imports from Russia to hedge against an energy crisis.

From the Ukraine-Russia and Iran-Israel conflicts, Turkey must draw lessons and take urgent precautions from geopolitics to military technology. With Syria’s fall, Turkey now borders Israel and its controlling globalist financial oligarchy. This bloc includes the U.S. Armed Forces, Israel, and NATO. Turkey’s NATO membership does not protect it from being drawn into war as a sacrificial pawn of finance capital. On the contrary, NATO’s internal structure, already embedded in Turkey, poses threats in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, TRNC, and Southeastern Anatolia. NATO and so-called allies’ role in the 2016 coup attempt via FETÖ must not be forgotten. That the coup occurred after successful operations in March 2016 should not be overlooked. Today, NATO’s Article 5 is seen in many capitals not as a guarantee, but a mere assumption. As with Ukraine, no direct intervention occurs for non-members, and even deterrence among members is weakening. Despite Israel’s open threats to Turkey, NATO has shown no response. Likewise, when Trump threatened military action in Greenland, there was no condemnation.

Turkey’s active neutrality in the Ukraine crisis, safeguarded by the Montreux Convention, is a major win despite NATO membership. But selling drones to Ukraine and participating in NATO drills over the Black Sea were major mistakes. Supporting Syria’s collapse alongside Israel, the U.S., and the UK was geopolitical suicide. This opened the door for a puppet Kurdish state on our southern border and allowed Israel to use Syrian airspace freely against Iran. The June 21, 2025 declaration by the so-called SDF commander that Kurdish forces in Syria are under their own control and not the Syrian state illustrates this outcome.

Despite severe strategic missteps and financial pressure, the West remains unsatisfied with Turkey, while the East views it as unreliable. In Iraq, past mistakes led to the formation of a Kurdish autonomous region. This area was also used heavily in Israel’s attacks on Iran. As long as Kürecik radar remains operational and oil flows to Israel through the BTC pipeline, Turkey may satisfy the West, but the truth will continue to emerge. This makes Turkey a distrusted partner in both East and West. Yet Iran’s resistance to Israel is crucial for Turkey’s own independence. A fallen Iran opens the door for imperialist encirclement of Turkey from the east.

This encirclement is not just military bases or troop buildup, but a silent containment strategy where Turkey’s geopolitical instincts are being dulled. The four main axes of this strategic encirclement are: the Israel-Saudi-UAE axis and YPG presence in Syria from the south; increased U.S. presence in the Eastern Mediterranean via Southern Cyprus; the France-U.S.-Greece alignment in the West; and rising instability in Iran to the East. Only bold actions on the ground can counter this. Inaction erodes deterrence.

Turkey is currently encircled by Israel from the south via Syria, the U.S. in Cyprus, NATO pressure from the north, the PKK corridor in the east, and France and Greece in the west. The Blue Homeland doctrine should guide Turkey’s response. While Turkey’s NATO role may be questioned due to independent foreign policy steps, its strategic value makes a NATO break nearly impossible. A semi-autonomous policy within NATO could create new internal balances.

Accordingly, Turkey must strengthen economic ties with China, deepen ties with Russia and Iran, and support the Eurasian Bloc. Its success in defense can spur military cooperation with Asian nations like Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Strengthening influence in Central Asia can lead to strong political, economic, and military alliances with Turkic states (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan). The Organization of Turkic States could evolve into an entity for economic integration and shared security. This alliance might unsettle Russia and China but would shift regional dynamics.

Facing the dire scenarios in the Arabian Sea, Mediterranean, and Persian Gulf, Turkey must take bold actions against Greece and Southern Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. A Monaco-like model should be adopted with the TRNC, transferring foreign and defense affairs to Ankara. Naval and air bases should be swiftly established on the island. Seismic and drilling activities should begin in the westernmost and southernmost parts of Turkey’s continental shelf near Cyprus. Turkey must also provide tangible support to Libya within its maritime zone against Greek aggression.

Despite Israeli media openly referring to Turkey as the “final target” on TV, Ankara’s silence reflects inertia within strategic decision-making. Beyond structural issues such as lacking integrated air defense (HISAR, SIPER, S-400, etc.), the absence of a “last-resort deterrent” makes Turkey appear vulnerable both strategically and psychologically. Turkey cannot yet develop an independent nuclear deterrent, but boosting its submarine fleet and accelerating mass production of the Akya national torpedo can enhance deterrence. Strategic impact from submarines could enable local naval superiority in the Eastern Mediterranean. Submarine numbers should rise swiftly. Similarly, short, medium, and long-range air defense systems must be completed; long-range hypersonic missile tech must be adopted immediately. Under the Blue Homeland doctrine, success lies in going deeper at sea, higher in air, and farther on land. One must remember: as a peninsula nation, Turkey’s defense begins from the sea and afar. As the saying goes, “Lack of doctrine is a dangerously silent threat.”

*

Click the share button below to email/forward this article. Follow us on Instagram and X and subscribe to our Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost Global Research articles with proper attribution.

Ret Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, Writer, Geopolitical Expert, Theorist and creator of the Turkish Bluehomeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. He served as the Chief of Strategy Department and then the head of Plans and Policy Division in Turkish Naval Forces Headquarters. As his combat duties, he has served as the commander of Amphibious Ships Group and Mine Fleet between 2007 and 2009. He retired in 2012. He established Hamit Naci Blue Homeland Foundation in 2021. He has published numerous books on geopolitics, maritime strategy, maritime history and maritime culture. He is also a honorary member of ATASAM. Visit his blog here.

He is a regular contributor to Global Research.  

Featured image source

Global Research is a reader-funded media. We do not accept any funding from corporations or governments. Help us stay afloat. Click the image below to make a one-time or recurring donation.

Source link