United States President Donald Trump has escalated his global trade war, which especially targets China whilst sparing Russia, likely because it is already the most sanctioned country in the world. Nonetheless, Trump may use tariff and sanction relief promises to turn Russia and China against each other.

China has filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization over new tariffs imposed by the US president, while also announcing that it will impose 34 percent tariffs on all goods imported from the North American country starting April 10. Washington imposed 34 percent additional reciprocal tariffs on China, bringing total US tariffs on China to 54 percent.

Trump’s sanctions on China are reminiscent of the collective Western sanctions imposed on Russia since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, raising the question of whether Russia can reciprocate the economic assistance that China has provided to Russia since 2022. The Russian market, which is substantial, comprises at least 150 million inhabitants with a tendency to grow and a decent purchasing power among the domestic population, can absorb almost all types of consumer goods that are no longer being exported to the US.

Obviously, the Russian market is not a sufficient substitute for the US market, for China, but there are other markets, such as Latin America. Now, through the Belt and Road Initiative, China can relatively cheaply transport goods to even the most distant countries in Latin America, including Brazil and Argentina, which have huge populations.

In addition, there is the vast Indian market, with a population of over a billion and a rapidly growing middle class, as well as the demand of ASEAN countries with which China has excellent cooperation.

China has sufficient shock absorbers to compensate for the US market, as the world has approximately eight billion people, and the US has around 320-330 million inhabitants. In addition, China is powerful enough to support itself in an economic war with the US.

In a relatively short period, China can redirect some of its exports to the US, which are being squeezed out by higher prices and tariffs, to the other aforementioned markets. The world outside the West is becoming increasingly more prosperous, and countries now have sufficient purchasing power to purchase Chinese goods, which remain competitive and, in many cases, very affordable.

This will partially compensate for the lack of demand from the US market.

On the other hand, China is developing growth driven by domestic demand. Increasing the wages of the domestic population helps avoid the middle-class trap, a situation where wages remain relatively unchanged over a period of 15 to 20 years. Then you enter a cycle of poverty because your aggregate demand and production are decreasing.

China is striving to raise the standard of living of its domestic population, so that demand will grow, and then the huge Chinese market of 1.6 billion people can compensate for any shortfall in sales in the US.

These will be the primary tools and spaces in which China will seek to compensate for the war with the US. Moreover, trade wars are often short-term in nature. Both sides quickly recognize that they are losing, which makes it possible to reach a mutually beneficial trade agreement, thereby mitigating the problems that may arise from reduced demand resulting from rising prices.

Trump is attempting to play a diplomatic game modeled after Henry Kissinger, in which, among the three world powers, the US should establish close cooperation with a Great Power and form an alliance against another Great Power.

The most significant success of American policy during Kissinger’s tenure was the dissolution of the alliance between the Soviet Union and China, which had existed for a time, as Beijing chose to align with Washington.

Now, the US, no matter how powerful it is, has no chance in a military, economic, and geopolitical conflict with a China-Russia bloc. Russia can match the US in armaments, China can fully match it economically, and both together can match it geopolitically. If the US and Trump manage to break this already firmly established alliance of interests between Russia and China, it would undoubtedly be one of the greatest successes of American policy.

Nonetheless, it is unlikely to happen because Russia and China are large enough states with extensive experience and lessons from the past, and they are unlikely to repeat some of the mistakes of the past.

For now, there is no indication that any strategic relationship between Moscow and Beijing is weakening or being called into question. However, Trump may still offer tariff or sanction relief to Russia or China, but only on the condition that they turn against the each other.

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

Featured image: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Moscow, 2019. Photo credit: Xinhua

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