South Sudan is the youngest sovereign country in the world. It achieved its independent identity in 2011, having seceded from Sudan. This happened after Sudan had gone through two civil wars in recent decades.

However the new country, which had very high levels of poverty but also had considerable oil wealth to finance its transition to better times, was unfortunately engulfed in a civil war of its own very soon in 2013.

This continued for almost five years, involving several massacres, claiming 400,000 human lives and displacing nearly four million people, about one-third of the total population of the country. This left the country with even higher levels of poverty, with about two-thirds living in extreme poverty and many others perilously close to this.

Efforts to end the civil war resulted in a fragile but nevertheless widely welcomed agreement in 2020. This placed Mr. Kiir as the President and prominent opposition leader Mr. Machar as Vice-President. The first leader is from the majority Dinka ethnic group and the second leader is from the biggest minority Nuer group. There had been several ethnic clashes between the two in the civil war and it is important for the two leaders to stay together and help to end the ethnic hostilities on a more durable basis.

A serious humanitarian crisis has continued due to the longer-term impacts of the civil war’s devastation as well as the impacts of climate change in the form of adverse weather conditions and heat waves (including a very recent one). Unfortunately recent international developments have led to the availability of lesser humanitarian assistance than before.

At the same time the ability of the country to meet the needs of its people by using its own resources has declined very sharply in recent times. Oil exports have been the biggest source of earnings for the government but the landlocked country depended for this on the oil pipelines passing through Sudan. In the course of the two-year old and ongoing civil war in Sudan the oil pipelines were badly damaged and this led to a big decline in the oil export earnings of South Sudan.

This meant that the Kiir regime had much less resources to meet the needs of its people and in addition also to meet the patronage expenses that had to be incurred to keep the peace of various pressure groups and potential rebel groups.

Moreover the Kiir regime had to attempt to maintain a balanced relationship with the two main factions of the Sudan civil war. In practice in tune with changing circumstances the South Sudan regime found itself moving in favor of one faction or the other, only to incur the wrath of the other faction.

The latest turn has been for the Kiir regime to emerge closer to the faction of Sudan civil war called Rapid Support Forces (RSF). RSF is also reported to have aligned near the border areas with a rebel group having a wider reach and support base in South Sudan.

As the stronger SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces) faction of Sudan civil war seeks to assert control over these border areas, South Sudan can be sucked more closely and directly into the Sudan Civil War.

The chances of this increase further due to the possibility that (with the Kiir regime being seen to be closer in recent times to RSF) the SAF forces can seek to provide arms and support to minority ethnic groups and rebels belonging to South Sudan to rise against the Kiir regime.

Some observers have pointed out that this is already taking place, and the recent spurt in violence and rebellious actions in some parts of South Sudan like Nasir is also being seen at least in part as a reflection of this.

Given the recent history of ethnic violence, such provocative actions on the part of one ethnic group, and particularly the main minority group seen to be instigated by outsiders, can easily lead to even worse violence by the majority ethnic group. Such cycles of violence seen in the past can re-erupt again and must be stopped on the basis of urgency at an early stage.  Unfortunately the political leadership of the country has not been able to live up to this responsibility in recent days.

Mr. Kiir has been reported to be in poor health in recent times. Instead of allowing his number two Mr. Machar to emerge as the more likely successor, he has instead promoted the prospects of another leader Mr. Bol Mel seen to be close to him.

Mr Machar has been recently placed under house arrest. As the two top leaders are seen to be representing two different ethnic groups, these political developments also have wider significance in terms of fuelling ethnic conflict.

Leaders of neighboring countries and African Union have taken some steps for peace. The United Nations with its significant presence in South Sudan can also contribute much to peace. Recently the United Nations has issue a warning regarding the increasing possibilities of South Sudan relapsing again into a civil war.

If in addition to the ongoing civil war in Sudan we have a civil war in South Sudan also this will greatly increase the high risks in this crisis-ridden region. Hence all forces of peace must make the maximum efforts they can to prevent the fast deteriorating situation in South Sudan as well as in Sudan.

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Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, Man over Machine-A Path to Peace and A Day in 2071. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

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