A cessation of hostilities is impossible so long as Ukraine continues occupying part of Kursk.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told the press during his trip to Italy that “communication is number one, followed by a ceasefire, and only after that can we start talks about a peace agreement” between Russia and Ukraine. He also added that the EU is against all three steps since it’s counterproductively pursuing a pro-war policy in that conflict. Here are three briefings about Orban’s peace trip over the summer for those who might have forgotten about it since then:

He’s therefore sincere with his ceasefire proposal, but it won’t amount to anything for now. A cessation of hostilities is completely out of the question for Russia so long as Ukraine continues occupying part of Kursk. Other “goodwill gestures” are still possible as is now known after Lavrov revealed that Russia was on the brink of reviving the grain deal this spring, but only because those are envisaged as costless means to the end of politically resolving this conflict. Here are three briefings on these calculations:

Considering this, the only chance for a ceasefire is if Ukraine agrees to the “goodwill gesture” of withdrawing from Kursk, though that’s unlikely after Zelensky confirmed prior speculation that his forces plan to indefinitely hold it. No progress on Orban’s proposal is therefore expected until Russia first pushes the Ukrainians out of Kursk, but there’s no telling how long that’ll take. Here are three briefings on this dimension of the conflict, which is now in its second month:

Russia’s capture of Pokrovsk could compel Ukraine to withdraw from Kursk so as to prevent the collapse of the front lines, but there’s no guarantee that it won’t turn that city into the next Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Avdeevka, or Mariupol, which could lead to it holding Kursk for a little longer. This sequence of events could revive interest in a ceasefire, but it might not unfold, or one side might still refuse to silence the guns even if it does. For that reason, nobody should expect a ceasefire anytime soon.

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This article was originally published on the author’s Substack, Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.  

Featured image is from MTI/Prime Minister’s Press Office/Zoltán Fischer