Tuesday, 26 November 2024

KENNY CODY: Taylor Swift's endorsement won't matter—just ask Tennessee


While it's understandable that Trump needs every tool available to win, Swift's endorsement carries no weight whatsoever, and her home state proved that back in 2018.

Earlier this month, Taylor Swift, the pop superstar and girlfriend of Kansas City Chiefs Tight End Travis Kelce, announced that she was endorsing Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Swift announced this on her Instagram page shortly after Harris's debate against former President and 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump. The endorsement is no surprise, as Swift has made her views on politics, culture, and policy clear over the last few years of her stardom. Whether it be her advocacy against the Second Amendment, her promotion of Black Lives Matter, her encouragement for her fans to register to vote for Democrats, or her consistent but baseless criticism of President Donald Trump, Americans know that Swift is a leftist and has been one for quite some time.

Unfortunately, that does not mean that a fair number of Trump supporters did not share a collective freak-out when the most prominent music star in the world endorsed Harris. Swift's endorsement, while not shocking, did send a wave around mainstream and social media, with celebrations flowing from the left and a large amount of those on the conservative right worried about what the impact of a Swift endorsement might be, and rightfully so.

Many modern-day young Americans have decided to allow music, the arts, university professors, and celebrities to shift their feelings about the world. Hollywood's infiltration of politics has been happening since its inception. Now, with the workings of social media, it is more impactful than it likely ever has been in American history.

Luckily, Swift's track record in politics is mixed, at best. During the 2020 Presidential campaign, Swift decided to back Democratic nominee and eventual winner Joe Biden. Even though Biden succeeded, it's hard to argue that Swift's endorsement had any measurable impact. Young voters did not cite Swift's endorsement as a reason for turning out, and Biden, while suspected by many pundits to trounce Trump, only won based on a forty-thousand vote margin within swing states. While youth turnout did increase, the before-after effect of Swift's endorsement did little to nothing to aid Biden's election chances, and there was no electoral landslide as predicted.

On the other hand, there is at least one race where she's been actively impotent. To see that, look no further than her declared home state of Tennessee. During the 2018 election, former Democratic Governor of Tennessee Phil Bredesen announced his bid for the United States Senate to challenge Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn for the position. Many pundits predicted that Bredesen would not only do better than any other Democrat could do against Blackburn but also have a shot to win the seat because of his high popularity in the state. After all, Bredesen defeated his last Republican challenger in 2006 by twenty-nine points the last time he was on the statewide ballot in Tennessee. National and state polling services had this race remotely close based on expectation and even had the race tied going into the last weeks of October.

Due to the perceived razor-thin margin in this race, donors and the Democratic Party machine poured millions into it. One significant celebrity also decided to get involved for the first time in politics in Tennessee, where she had likely the most influence—Taylor Swift. In another Instagram post, Swift supported the Tennessee Democratic Party and its nominees that cycle, giving a full-throated endorsement of former Governor Phil Bredesen. Swift explained her disdain for conservative policy and slammed Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn and her voting record. Coupled with the prediction that this race would be somewhat close, many predicted, similarly to today, that Swift's endorsement of Bredesen might be what he needed to drive the youth vote out and defeat Blackburn.

The result was a catastrophe for the Democratic Party, both nationally and statewide in Tennessee. While polls had the projected margin between three to five points, including being tied in October, Congresswoman Blackburn trounced Governor Bredesen by nearly eleven points, with the former Governor winning only the traditional Democratic counties of Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby, along with forty-three percent of the vote.

The circumstances of Swift's endorsements are telling. Biden, who did not need her endorsement, was not significantly helped by it. On the other hand, Bredesen needed her endorsement, and the voters of Tennessee made it clear that they did not share Swift's disdain for conservatism. Even when expectations for her impact on the election were high, Tennesseans rejected both Bredesen and Swift's political views.

Now, Swift has again decided to butt her head into politics.

While it's understandable that Trump needs every tool available to win, Swift's endorsement carries no weight whatsoever, and her home state proved that back in 2018.

Tennesseans do not care what Taylor Swift says about politics and the rest of the country will not either.
 

Source link