In the wake of the vice presidential debate, one thing is now clear: J.D. Vance is almost certain to be the Republican nominee in 2028, and probably 2032 as well.

Yes, the junior senator from Ohio, pro-life Catholic, and National Conservative, who has already had a meteoric rise within the GOP. After serving as Donald Trump’s running mate in the 2024 presidential election, a race that Trump is very likely to win (barring extralegal malfeasance on the part of the Democrats that is).

Vance is well-positioned to carry the torch for the post-Trump Republican Party. His credentials, worldview, and political acumen make him not only a likely frontrunner but also the GOP’s most compelling candidate in a post-2024 political landscape by a mile.

Being selected as Trump’s vice-presidential nominee in 2024 wasn’t just a pragmatic decision; it was a symbolic anointment by the MAGA movement, as well as that movement's king: Trump himself.

As Trump continues to loom large over the Republican base (something that will continue, win or lose, in November), his endorsement carries significant weight. Vance’s alignment with Trump is both strategic and ideological—he has echoed Trump’s populism, anti-globalism, and culture war battles and even worked to give them a more polished and serious presentation. 

At the same time, Vance doesn’t just mimic Trump’s rhetoric; he offers a more refined and intellectual version of Trumpism. Where Trump has often been a blunt instrument, Vance is more articulate and disciplined, able to defend the movement’s policies and principles in a more thoughtful way. This was on full display during the 2024 vice-presidential debate, where Vance squared off against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Vance’s performance was widely seen as calm, substantive, poised, and stylish—a contrast to Walz’s more conventional but awkward center-left positioning (to say nothing of being sweaty and nervous). Vance proved he could handle himself on the national stage, further solidifying his credentials as a future presidential contender.
Another key factor working in Vance’s favor is his embodiment of National Conservatism, a burgeoning ideological movement within the GOP that emphasizes a rejection of liberal internationalism, an embrace of nationalism, and a commitment to traditional values. Unlike the more libertarian, free-market conservatism that dominated the Republican Party in the post-Reagan years, National Conservatism emphasizes a more populist, working-class-oriented economic policy combined with social conservatism.

Vance has positioned himself as one of National Conservatism’s most prominent advocates. He has consistently argued for the need to rebuild American manufacturing, rein in the excesses of global capitalism, and protect traditional family values. His advocacy for policies like immigration restriction, trade protectionism, and a pro-family economic agenda gives him strong appeal with a Republican base that is more blue-collar, populist, and skeptical of the establishment than it was a decade ago. Vance’s vision resonates particularly well with the Rust Belt voters who delivered Trump’s victories in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and who remain essential to any GOP candidate’s electoral strategy.

As if that wasn’t enough, one of Vance’s greatest assets is his incredible life story. Raised in a working-class family in Ohio, his memoir Hillbilly Elegy became a national bestseller and provided a window into the struggles of the white working class—a key demographic that has become central to the Republican Party’s electoral base. Vance’s story of overcoming adversity to graduate from Yale Law School and ultimately become a U.S. Senator is a compelling narrative that resonates with voters who feel left behind by globalization and the cultural elite.

While Vance will undoubtedly face well-funded opponents in the 2028 Republican primary, if the vice-presidential debate is anything to go by, he will likely make short work of both ‘Birdbrain’ Nikki Haley and ‘Meatball’ Ron DeSantis.

With his combination of intellectual credibility, populist instincts, and a firm grounding in faith and values, J.D. Vance is well-positioned to be the Republican nominee for president in 2028. His close ties to Trump, his impressive performance in 2024, and his championing of National Conservatism and the New Right all point to the fact that he represents the almost certain future of the GOP—a leader capable of carrying the party forward into the next era of American politics.