President-elect Donald Trump has a two-year window to push through some of his most contentious proposals, before midterm elections potentially see the Democrats return to legislative power and divide the government. 

Trump is set to return to the White House with a majority in both chambers of Congress and a generally sympathetic Supreme Court. The rapid-fire turnaround of his cabinet nominees, moreover, suggests a greater sense of urgency within the incoming White House than in the first administration. Democrats took the House during the 2018 midterms, effectively ending Trump’s hopes of securing major legislative wins. Republicans, for their part, managed to wrest the chamber from the Democrats in 2010 and largely stonewall further key agenda items. 

Now, some Republicans are mindful that their trifecta victory in 2024 likely only represents a brief opportunity to make a lasting impact and have warned that Republicans will only maintain control by successfully delivering on their promises.

The first time around, Trump’s major legislative victory was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed the corporate tax rate and doubled the standard deduction. He punted on key budget items, such as funding for a border wall, in favor of an omnibus spending package and ultimately failed to negotiate with House Democrats when they took over the lower chamber to secure it. That episode even saw the government go into a protracted shutdown.

Deliver now or lose in 2026

“I mean, we're all here happy, but my primary message is that all we won was a ticket to the dance,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said this week at the American Legislative Exchange Council. “Now we have to dance and that that's really the key, and that the 2026 election is actually the key moment.”

The Georgia Republican was the 50th speaker of the United States House of Representatives from 1995 through 1999 and was a leading figure in securing a Republican House for the first time in 40 years.

“If, like Franklin Delano Roosevelt, we can keep the House and maybe pick up a few seats, we are probably on the way to really creating a new stable majority,” he added. “If, like most times, the American people end up disappointed, our side doesn't turn out and the Democrats pick up the house, then we're back to politics as usual. So, what the brilliant nine-year effort of Donald Trump has done is given us a chance to truly change things.”

Some incoming pro-Trump lawmakers are evidently aware of the potential for a political whiplash should Republicans fail to deliver and have hinted that Republicans will pursue the MAGA agenda with a close eye on 2026.

“I'm confident Congress is going to back up President Trump 100% because we know, if we don't secure our border, when we have this opportunity with [a] unified republican government, then what, at what point do we deserve re-election?” Rep.-elect Abe Hamadeh, R-Ariz., said in late November on the “John Solomon Reports” podcast.

“We're able to collect, get the government that we wanted, and now we have to implement the change that the American people are demanding,” Hamadeh went on. “So that's why I'm optimistic, not just, you know, for this next year or two, but even for a re-election in 2026 we are going to deliver the results that the American people demand.”

New leadership within the GOP brings a change in doing business

The incoming Republican majorities, moreover, will feature many new faces in their leadership and include more Trump-aligned figures than in 2016. House Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to keep his post, which he secured late last year after former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., led an effort to boot Kevin McCarthy from the job. Trump’s first House Speaker was Paul Ryan, who left leadership after the GOP lost the House in 2018 and has since been a leading critic of the president-elect on the right.

In the Senate, moreover, Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will not lead the Republicans for the first time since 2007, though Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., was one of his top deputies. McConnell publicly feuded with Trump during and after his administration over a litany of issues, notably on foreign policy, Senate norms, presidential conduct, and budget matters. While he will likely remain an influential voice in the upper chamber, his departure from the top post potentially signals that the upper chamber may be poised for a shift in approach.

Generally regarded as a more centrist Republican, Thune ran between the conservative Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and the more old-school Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, for leadership. Thune, for his part, has also pointed to 2026, but suggested that the prospect of looming midterms could prove advantageous to Republicans in a different manner.

“I would think that the the election results were incredible repudiation of where they've been taking the country,” he said in mid-November. “And so it strikes me at least that Democrats, particularly if they have to run in 2026, might be inclined to help us on some of these issues. I think there's that's possibility always hope, hope that's the case. We'll find out soon enough.”

“At every level”

For Gingrich, Time Magazine's "Man of the Year" in 1995 and a well-established "policy wonk" and former history professor, the two-year window applies not just to Republicans in Washington, but to those in state and local posts, who face the same election pressures to bolster the Republican record with tangible wins for voters.

“We have to deliver at every level. We have to deliver better jobs, lower taxes, better government, more safety, less crime,” he added. “We have to do it fast enough that in 2026 people decide they want us to stay in charge.”

At the state level, the 2018 midterms were less disappointing for Republicans. Though they lost ground in Washington, they managed to stave off formidable Democratic gubernatorial nominees, notably in Georgia and Florida.

“If we can win in 2026 we're going to be in a position, I think, to become a stable, permanent majority, replacing the FDR majority that's been here since 1932,” Gingrich said. “But if we can't deliver, if people decide that we're just like the rest of them, and they give the Democrats control the House, the Democrats then spend two years trying to impeach Trump 22 times or whatever. Then we're faced with a fight, and we're not out of the woods.”