Former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s, R-Fla., withdrawal from consideration to serve as United States Attorney General and his replacement with Florida’s Pam Bondi has many scratching their heads and some forecasting trouble for his future Cabinet picks. 

Trump’s nomination of Gaetz shocked Capitol Hill. The conservative firebrand and die-hard MAGA supporter had previously rocked the lower chamber by leading the charge to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year. His reputation as an anti-institutional wrecking ball, moreover, scared establishment lawmakers stiff.

More shocking than his nomination, however, was his withdrawal and speedy replacement with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. Neither Gaetz nor Bondi were on most insiders' shortlists for the post and more than a handful of Republican heavyweights have speculated that the Gaetz nomination may have been some sort of headfake.

Ostensibly motivating Gaetz’s withdrawal were his concerns that a contentious nomination process would needlessly distract from Trump’s agenda. But Gaetz had also faced a House Ethics Committee investigation into his conduct, of which Gaetz has vehemently denied. The DOJ previously declined to charge him after a years-long investigation, but senators wanted the panel’s findings. After Gaetz resigned from Congress, the committee chose not to release them.

Purportedly, Gaetz did not have the votes for confirmation, with a handful of establishment Republicans standing firm in their opposition to him despite a Capitol Hill meeting between Gaetz and members of the upper chamber.

While his replacement may have an easier path to confirmation than he did, Gaetz’s departure from the media cycle may prove a detriment to the success of Trump’s other nominees. Defense Secretary designate Pete Hegseth, for instance, was briefly the subject of headlines over his own legal woes and allegations, though Gaetz’s nomination saw him draw the media flak away from Hegseth. An Army veteran of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay, Hegseth earned two Bronze Stars and went on to become a host on Fox News. His issues speedily returned to headlines after Gaetz backed out of the nomination.

4-D chess?

More than a few analysts predicted Gaetz’s failure as a nominee and have suggested that Trump may have as well.

“There’s always one” that takes the fall and “gives cover to the others,” one Republican strategist told Fox News, suggesting Gaetz was a “sacrificial lamb” for other nominees. Newsweek’s Josh Hammer, moreover, suggested that the nod may have been an example of Trump playing “4-D chess,” in reference to a 2016 notion that he was outthinking his opponents.

The essence of Hammer’s theory is that Trump’s nomination of Gaetz gave the congressman an excuse to leave Congress and thereby avoid the release of the ethics report, freeing him up for a possible 2026 gubernatorial run. Given how odious Gaetz was to Senate lawmakers, moreover, whomever Trump chose to replace him would seem more palatable. Hammer suggests that the short turnaround between Gaetz’s withdrawal and Bondi’s nomination signaled she may have been on deck for the job already. Under that theory, Trump would have helped a MAGA stalwart gear up to lead one of the most important Republican bastions while greasing the wheels for another stalwart nominee, who might otherwise have faced more intense scrutiny.

In late October, Trump declared that he and Gaetz have a “little secret” they would reveal after the election concluded. The clip of him saying so recirculated amid Gaetz’s nomination, though Trump never confirmed any link between the clip and the AG nod.

Bondi draws applause

A two-term attorney general from one of the largest Republican states in the country, Bondi is a much more conventional nominee for U.S. attorney general than Gaetz. But she is also a MAGA stalwart on par with the former congressman.

Bondi was Trump’s defense attorney during his first impeachment over his discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the Biden family. Trump was acquitted in the Senate.

Bondi made some appearances on the Trump campaign trail, but was generally not one of his major surrogates, largely flying under the radar. Her nomination, however, drew swift acclaim from some Republican senators, including from Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who called her “a good choice to lead the DOJ.”

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., moreover, called her a “fighter” while Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, said she “is a true fighter who will dismantle the Trump-hating deep state at DOJ, root out the corrupt career prosecutors, and make our country great again.”

Other nominees will still face challenges

Gaetz’s withdrawal might conceivably ease Bondi’s path to confirmation, but could leave some of his other picks open to greater scrutiny.

Trump’s nominees to serve as Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Director of National Intelligence have all drawn considerable senatorial pushback and media attention in their own right and Gaetz’s absence from the confirmation process may see institutional lawmakers judge them more critically.

Defense nominee Pete Hegseth, for instance, has come under fire over a sexual misconduct allegation. A 20-year veteran of the armed forces, Hegseth is best known as a Fox News host and has faced Democratic accusations that Trump picked him because of his known penchant for watching cable news.

Health and Human Services nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr., meanwhile, is likely to face opposition over past comments on vaccines and potentially, his abortion stances. DNI nominee Tulsi Gabbard, for her part, has faced baseless accusations of being a foreign asset but will also likely have to account for her remarks about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Did it backfire?

At least some outlets have suggested that Gaetz’s allegations and seemingly disastrous nomination may have done more to draw attention to the downsides of Trump’s other nominees.

Reuters, for instance, ran an article titled “Gaetz exit puts spotlight on other Trump nominees accused of sexual misconduct.” Included within that article was a comment from Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., suggesting that senators would pay more attention to Trump’s other nominees, but ultimately come up empty. "You guys will look more and more on what happened and will understand it's completely taken out of context, and I think Pete will get confirmed at the end of the day," he said.

Additionally scrutiny would, of course, mean little should the allegations prove baseless and one source close to the Trump team told Fox News that the president’s staff doesn’t see a “wider problem” that could go beyond Gaetz.