NY Times Admits Polls May Be Underestimating Trump Again
The New York Times has suggested that polls in the run up to Tuesday’s election showing president Trump ahead of or level with Kamala Harris are likely to be underestimating Trump.
The Times’ Nate Cohen pointed out that the non response bias of their final polls was as bad as 2020, meaning that a trump supporters are less likely to engage in polling than Democrat supporters.
🚨Nate Cohen said their final NYT polls saw a non response bias as bad as 2020 and polls may be underestimating Trump again. pic.twitter.com/N7UDwIkSp1
— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 3, 2024
As commentator Collin Rugg notes, a highly dubious poll highlighted in the Des Moines Register is claiming that Harris has suddenly surged to a three point lead over Trump in Iowa.
The same poll had Trump up by 18 points over Biden in June.
NEW: Ann Selzer poll shows Kamala Harris leading by three points in Iowa.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 3, 2024
Harris: 47%
Trump: 44%
The same poll had Trump leading Biden by 18 points in June, an unbelievable 21-point swing.
I said this exact quote two days ago: "I am seeing a coordinated left-wing operation… pic.twitter.com/WsF4Q5Iw2G
Rugg suggests that the poll is part of a coordinated effort to discourage conservatives from voting.
I'm posting this now since @Nate_Cohn hinted that the Selzer poll was designed to help give him and the NYT/Siena poll cover to release polls tomorrow showing a late "surge" for Kamala Harris.
— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) November 3, 2024
Below is the @nytimes/@SienaResearch track record from 2020.
They missed outside the… pic.twitter.com/AUTso8ric8
The rest of the post…
They missed outside the MoE in nearly 60% of their final polls and 90.4% of the time in favor of Biden/Democrats. On average, they were off by 4.5% and missed by over 3% in 71% of their polls.
Anyone who pretends they are some sort of “gold standard” or “A” rated pollster is a fool, lying to you, or both.
They stink.Â
They are in the propaganda, not polling business.Â
There never has been a Kamala surge, not even in July.
Democrats are lagging in turnout across the nation, and this is a last ditch/Hail Mary effort to depress GOP turnout and rally some of their lunatic supporters to the polls.Â
Instead of falling for it, call them out and, most importantly, VOTE!
Trump is going to win as long as we all do our job and vote.
— Revelation (@Apokalypsis_Sol) November 3, 2024
The Trump campaign also pointed to a voter suppression narrative against their supporters.
MEMO: The New York Times to Harris Campaign: We Tried pic.twitter.com/1U7sk8iYaw
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) November 3, 2024
Basically, Trump supporters just have to vote and it should be a comfortable win.
A fresh AtlasIntel swing state poll shows Trump leading in all seven states.
JUST IN: AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster of 2020, releases their official swing state poll showing Donald Trump leading in every swing state.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 3, 2024
The poll shows Trump leading in Arizona and Nevada by a very comfortable margin.
North Carolina: Trump +3.4
Georgia: Trump +2.5… pic.twitter.com/W8EJvnIsKP
In 2020 they were the most accurate pollster, and now they also have Trump leading nationally by 2 points.
“What will really make a difference on Tuesday in a place like Pennsylvania… it will be the white turnout mobilization,” AtlasIntel Andrei Roman commented.
“If white males really turn out for Trump on Tuesday, he can carry out Pennsylvania,” Roman continued, adding “I think the whole garbage truck scene… efforts to mobilize voters… it makes sense from a strategic perspective.”
“This is what he needs to do to mobilize voters on election day. In the Rust Belt states, this is what will make the difference between him winning and losing this election,” Roman further asserted.
JUST IN: AtlasIntel CEO says if white males turn out for Trump on election day, he will win Pennsylvania and potentially the rest of the Rust Belt states.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 2, 2024
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of 2020.
"What will really make a difference on Tuesday in a place like… pic.twitter.com/Modt8WzLFf
Don’t wait. Don’t be complacent. Vote.
Duh. Ignore fake suppression polls. Get out and vote vote vote !
— Dr. G. Russian Bot (@overitall69) November 3, 2024
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