Trump Opens Up TEN POINT Lead On Kamala In Major Forecast
President Trump has opened up a huge ten point lead over Kamala Harris nationwide, according to a prominent forecast.
The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast has Trump at a 52 percent chance of winning in November, with Harris languishing at 42 percent.
This is a major development, because it shows that a major shift has occurred.
NEW: Trump has overtaken Harris for the first time in @thehill/@DecisionDeskHQ's presidential election forecast. He how has a 52% chance of winning, per the model. https://t.co/r0K5RIWWUS
— Brandon Conradis (@BConradis) October 20, 2024
The Hill reports that “Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s chances at approximately 44 to 46 percent.”
“In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent,” the report adds.
Just last week, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win, but yesterday, after a completely embarrassing week of dreadful appearances by Harris, Trump has taken a significant lead.
The report also notes that the shift coincides with Trump’s polling averages dramatically increasing in the key states of Wisconsin and Michigan.
In addition, pollster Nate Silver has placed Trump ahead in his latest forecast predicting he has a higher chance of winning, at 51% to Harris’ 49%.
In his ‘Silver Bulletin’ post on Saturday, Silver wrote, “Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning. And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
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