This post was republished with permission from Zero Hedge.
Where is Iran’s Uranium? Truce Highlights Mystery Over Stockpile… that’s Bloomberg’s latest headline over the ‘biggest mystery’ that remains in the war.
There’s also the pressing question of whether Trump’s massive airstrikes from B-2 bombers actually truly destroyed the facilities and these stockpiles.
The Iranians aren’t dumb, and likely took drastic steps to further protect, conceal, or likely move these enriched stockpiles – some 400kg according to most reports – as wave after wave of Israeli warplanes hit Iran, significantly before the US sent its bombers this past weekend. It appears core components are still intact – though Iran has long maintained it is merely for peaceful nuclear energy development.
The NY Times is currently reporting that the US operation merely set Iran’s nuclear program back by a few months.
And early emerging intelligence also points to the stockpile having not been destroyed, which contradicts the current ‘victory lap’ claims being made by President Trump and some of his top officials. In a huge development below is fresh CNN reporting based on a leaked assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA):
The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.
The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also said on Sunday that Iran’s nuclear ambitions “have been obliterated.”
Did Iran move its enriched uranium before the US bombs hit?…a likely scenarioOne unnamed defense official quoted in the report says centrifuges are largely “intact.” And more based on the apparently ‘Top Secret’ leaked DIA intel report:
The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but said they disagreed with it.
“So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” this person added.
So this appears yet another case of the White House disagreeing with its own intelligence community (IC) – in an ongoing awkward situation which has Iraq war vibes.
One obvious danger from the perspective of Western decision-makers (and Israel): if Iran was not intent on getting a bomb before, they likely are now – given their very existence is under threat. More of the WH reaction to the leak:
As we stated before, it is especially the Iranian hardliners which will understand the ‘two paths’ before Iran:
1) Become a failed state like Libya after ‘giving up’ nuclear or WMD potential (precisely as Gaddafi did when offered ‘incentives’ by Bush/Cheney/Rice.
2) Or, become North Korea and you are immune from regime change wars launched by the West.
Tehran certainly knows this, and has likely already chosen path #2 – at a moment Israeli leadership is probably worried about a future nuclear dirty bomb going off in Tel Aviv. In many ways, Trump’s brazen bombing operation – which as usual saw the commander-in-chief completely bypass Congress, took things from bad to worse.
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