New scientific research has shattered the established climate change narrative, revealing that plants absorb significantly more carbon dioxide (CO2) than previously estimated.

This discovery by scientists from Cornell University and the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) calls into question decades of climate models and predictions, suggesting that natural processes play a larger role in balancing atmospheric CO2 than climate models have accounted for.

In other words, “the science was settled”—until it wasn’t.

The new study published in the journal Nature finds that plants absorb 31% more CO2 than previously estimated, raising the global GPP to 157 petagrams per year.

Peter Thornton, a lead scientist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), says that climate models predicting severe outcomes need a rethink following new research on how much CO2 plants absorb.

“Nailing down our estimates of GPP with reliable global-scale observations is a critical step in improving our predictions of future CO2 in the atmosphere, and the consequences for global climate,” said Thornton.

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Using carbonyl sulfide as a proxy for photosynthesis, this study highlights tropical rainforests’ critical role as carbon sinks and stresses the importance of accurate photosynthesis modeling for climate predictions.

The team’s model includes “mesophyll diffusion,” capturing how efficiently CO2 and OCS move through leaf cells into chloroplasts, where carbon fixation occurs.

By using high-resolution data and global databases like ORNL’s LeafWeb, scientists were able to make more accurate GPP estimates and validate them with on-the-ground monitoring, bypassing satellite limitations like cloud cover.

This breakthrough has major implications for climate predictions, particularly in tropical rainforests, which store vast amounts of carbon.

Better GPP data can refine climate models, reducing uncertainty in predicting future CO2 levels and climate impacts.

Reference: “Terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from plant carbonyl sulfide uptake” by Jiameng Lai, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Wu Sun, Danica Lombardozzi, J. Elliott Campbell, Lianhong Gu, Yiqi Luo, Le Kuai and Ying Sun, 16 October 2024, Nature.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08050-3