Despite the 'pandemic response' being a non-issue in the General Election (all parties were compliant and consequently complicit in the single most disastrous policy ever followed by any Government) the issue of vaccine harms hasn't entirely gone away. A paper published in the BMJ Public Health journal and covered in a front page piece by Sarah Knapton in the Telegraph gave the issue much needed credence. This was followed by David Davis MP repeating a call for a proper inquiry into excess deaths and a post from Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson, published on their Substack Trust the Evidence and reprinted in the Daily Sceptic.

Heneghan and Jefferson state:

Suddenly, it's okay to question the vaccine narrative. The Lancet estimated that vaccinations prevented 19·8 million excess deaths. Mathematical modelling should not be used to justify the policy — the latest report shows the numbers don't add up.

Of course, it isn't only the Lancet that has relied on nonsensical mathematical modelling to justify widespread adoption of mRNA technology. Disappointingly, both Rod Liddle and Fraser Nelson in recent articles published in the Times and Telegraph respectively repeated the farcical claim that the AstraZeneca vaccine saved six million lives. Claims that 500,000 lives were saved by lockdown, that 20 million lives were saved by mRNA vaccines or six million were saved by AstraZeneca all rely on modelling. However, we have real-world data that paint a very different picture.

During part of the winter of 2021-22 the U.K. experienced its last period where Covid accounted for more than 10% of all-cause deaths. The rollout of the vaccines had been completed in the prior autumn, by which point most elderly and vulnerable people (who accounted for the vast majority of Covid deaths) had been vaccinated at least three and in many cases four times.

If Covid vaccines really prevented 20 million deaths and the AstraZeneca vaccine really saved six million lives, then you would assume that during the 2021-22 mini 'Covid spike', deaths of the 'never-vaccinated' would have increased faster than deaths of the vaccinated.

The fact that this didn't happen confirms that vaccines didn't work. Figure 1, in one simple chart, using official U.K. Government data, demonstrates that while Covid deaths spiked in January 2022, all-cause deaths of the 'never-vaccinated', rather than increasing, modestly declined (green line). In fact the reduction of all-cause deaths in the never-vaccinated was somewhat more pronounced than that of the vaccinated (red line)!
The data for this chart come from two Government bodies: the ONS report of monthly deaths by vaccine status running from April 1st 2021 to the end of May 2023; and the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities (OHID) showing weekly deaths, spliced and diced in multiple ways, from October 2021 to July 2022.

It's worth noting that the OHID abandoned its excellent monthly report in December 2023 following its controversial decision to adopt the ONS's radical change to the 'expected deaths' calculation. Prior to this the OHID was showing excess deaths from heart failure, diabetes and cirrhosis running well ahead of the 'expected' levels. Yet another change that created distrust in the authorities.

Remarkably, the chart confirms that over the winter months, December to February:

'Covid deaths' (plotted against the left-hand axis) increased by 74% from 3,145 in December 2021 to 5,460 in January 2022, before dropping back by 25% to 4,088 in February.

Amongst the 'never-vaccinated', all-cause deaths decreased by 7% from December 2021's total of 3,858 to 3,606 in January 2022, before declining again in February 2022 by a further 30% to 2,533.

Among the vaccinated, December's total deaths of 46,951 decreased by 3% to 45,587 deaths in January, followed by a further 14% fall back to 39,063 in February.

How can this be? Between December 2021 and February 2022 deaths in the vaccinated fell by 17% while deaths in the never-vaccinated fell by 34%, twice the rate of decline of the vaccinated.

There can only be two explanations: either the proportion of vaccinated people increased, or vaccines didn't work.

The Government's coronavirus dashboard confirms that hardly any never-vaccinated people decided, late in 2021 or in early 2022 to get themselves vaccinated. Anecdotally, I've met many people who regret getting vaccinated, but I've never met anyone who regretted not getting vaccinated, and I've never come across anyone who, having held out against vaccination throughout 2021, decided late in 2021 or early 2022 to opt onto that particular merry-go-round. Certainly, the number of the never-vaccinated didn't materially change during this period. Which means the only logical conclusion is that vaccines didn't work.
If we look at the all-cause deaths of the never-vaccinated as a percentage of all deaths, shown in Figure 3, two things are apparent. Firstly, the lines for each age cohort fall consistently; there are no upticks. Surely, if a deadly virus was on the loose that only multiple vaccinations could save you from, you might expect to see deaths amongst the never-vaccinated demonstrate some volatility, especially during times when Covid deaths surged. Secondly, we see that the percentage of all-cause deaths amongst the never-vaccinated is about the same as or lower than the overall proportion of people within each age cohort (which I've indicated in red in Figure 2). In other words, the never-vaccinated are not over-represented in deaths, as you would expect if the vaccines were saving lots of lives among the vaccinated.
These 'real-world' data illustrate another feature of the 'pandemic': over-reporting or over-diagnosis of Covid deaths. Figure 4, lifted straight from the OHID website, shows that in week ending 22nd January 2021 (the bolder coloured column) there were 17,568 registered deaths, of which 8,013 were 'Covid deaths'; that's 46% of the total. The expected number of deaths for that week was 12,535, indicated by the dashed line. Surely this must mean that in the absence of Covid we would have seen just 9,555 deaths (17,568 all-cause minus 8,013 Covid), but that would be 2,980 (31%) fewer deaths than were expected.
Of course this is nonsense. If deaths that week excluding Covid deaths had been at the expected level, then it would suggest that 37% of the Covid deaths were an overstatement. Overestimates like this get fed into the mathematical models. They in turn lead to errors in 'case fatality rates' and very soon we have error compounding error and the whole calculation loses credibility.

It's good news that the likes of David Davis, Carl Heneghan, Tom Jefferson and Andrew Bridgen are calling for an inquiry into the potential role of vaccines in recent excess deaths. But we shouldn't overlook the data we have publicly available (I think uniquely in the world) showing outcomes for the 'never-vaccinated', our very own 'control group' which shows very clearly that their health outcomes were certainly no worse, and in all likelihood significantly better than the vaccinated.

Before Fraser Nelson, Rod Liddle and any other commentators are tempted to trot out the nonsense about millions of lives saved by vaccination they should ask the question: "So, where did we bury the disproportionate number of 'never-vaccinated' who must surely have died since 2021?" I've looked and I can't find them.
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