"After 50 years of oppression under Baathist rule and 13 years of criminality, tyranny and displacement, and after a long struggle, confronting all sorts of occupation forces, we declare today, December 8, 2024, the end of that dark era and the start of a new era for Syria," - Islamists of the united Syrian opposition

What exactly happened?

The highlight of the international developments of the day was the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's power in Syria. Islamists and armed opposition forces entered Damascus. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said he was ready to "cooperate" with any administration chosen by the Syrian people and take any measures for a peaceful "transit" of power.

A hodgepodge of pro-Turkish fighters, jihadists, terrorists, armed pro-U.S. opposition and other elements occupied key cities of the country (including Homs and Palmyra) on the night of Dec. 8 and took Damascus with no resistance. Assad fled on an airplane, which disappeared from radar, thus giving rise to many versions about his fate. Against this background, government forces are withdrawing from the capital of the Republic. Damascus International Airport has also stopped its work. All employees have been evacuated from the air harbor.

As a reminder, the day before, the Syrian Army withdrew its forces from the city of Homs and is now staying near the town of al-Quseir. The status of Latakia and Tartus, where Russian military bases are located, is not yet fully clear.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to bomb Hezbollah positions and has already sent its patrols into Syria. They have occupied the town of Khan Arnaba (the center of Quneitra province in the southwest of the country). Iran and Iraq have decided not to intervene in the conflict. Jordan and Lebanon closed their borders with Syria. The Kurds announced total mobilization on the territories under their control.



Militants captured the cities of Homs, Salamiyah and Akerbat

As of now, Syrian officials are negotiating with the militants to keep the civilian infrastructure and the state apparatus functioning.

A large number of ISIS fighters have been released from prisons. The Iranian embassy and Assad's presidential palace have been looted.

Israel has occupied a part of the territory of Syria near the Golan Heights, the annexation of which it will try to consolidate, taking advantage of the collapse of Syria.

Turkey continues to pressure the Kurds in northern Syria. Ankara's obvious goal is to seize Manbij.

Why did this happen?

Any war is a fair of ideas. The opposing sides offer their visions of the future and the population ultimately chooses the one who was able to convey its position more convincingly. In recent years, Syrians fought and died to bring back the old Syria. They wanted to destroy the jihadists, rebuild the economy and live as before. Bashar al-Assad acted as a symbol of these processes.

Unfortunately, after all the trials, the Syrian people only got a worse life. There was no gas, no light, and no gasoline. All this was multiplied by total corruption among officials and military officers, most of whom were not Arabs but Alawites. This local sect was nurtured by the French during their colonial expansion in the Middle East as a tool to combat the Arab population. It is worth noting that the Alawite clan is as closed as possible, has essentially its own religion and clearly contrasts with the Arab-Muslim cultural community. For example, the Alawites allow homosexuality and alcohol, believe in the triune hypostasis of God, and do not consider it a sin to kill a Muslim and betray for their own interests (i.e. "concealment of intent" described by the principle of "taqiyya").

By and large, while the Bashar al-Assad clan has been running the country as its fiefdom for the past few years, the standard of living of ordinary people has only fallen.

By contrast, in Idlib, which Assad has never been able to regain control of, there was gas and light, and there were no problems with trade. When the militants' offensive began, the soldiers of the government army failed to understand why they had to die at the front. They had equipment and ammunition, but why should they shoot at terrorists? Yes, they will stop the militants, yes, they will lose a couple thousand soldiers, but what for if after the victory it will be even worse?

The terrorists won the information and psychological warfare, the battle for the minds, which the Syrian government lost completely and irrevocably. It is not for nothing that the Turks were the first to rush to bring electricity to Aleppo and clear the roads.

The surrender of Palmyra and Deraa did not happen because the soldiers ran out, but because they simply did not believe in their future, and the portrait of Bashar al-Assad no longer symbolized anything for anybody.



Damascus. People tear down portraits of legitimate President Bashar al-Assad, pull down monuments to Hafez al-Assad, and chant anti-government slogans

So, we should not be surprised that the soldiers abandoned their tanks without a single shot and left on foot for Damascus.

What comes next?

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's army in Syria is very similar and even exceeds what we saw in Afghanistan during the Taliban offensive and the expulsion of the Americans.

The change of power in Syria may be accompanied by the realization of several scenarios, up to the split and disintegration of this Arab country.

The first scenario of possible developments in Syria envisages the establishment of the Syrian Democratic Republic after the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's administration by an alliance of the opposition with various factions, despite ideological differences. Although this option is hardly feasible, it would be supported by Turkey, Russia, the United States, and European countries, as it would preserve the integrity of Syria.

The second scenario involves the creation of the Islamic Republic of Syria, where representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will form the backbone of the new government. In this case, Syria will be governed by representatives of Salafists (a movement in Sunni Islam) who have no ideological enmity toward Israel and the United States.


The third scenario is the creation of an anti-Shia state in Syria under Israeli control. Its doctrine would be based on anti-Iranian orientation, blockade of the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah and deprivation of its logistical and military support from Tehran.

The fourth scenario is the creation of the Federal Republic of Syria under the auspices of the United States, which will be balkanized by dividing it into small puppet states.

The fifth scenario for Syria envisages its split and disintegration. If the opposition and the countries supporting it fail to reach an agreement, the civil war in Syria will escalate again. This would eventually lead to its complete collapse.
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