An overview of the frontline situation during November and December of 2024

Since October, intense battles have been raging all along the front. In that month and November, the Russian army advanced at its fastest pace since the start of the Special Military Operation, capturing over 1,500 square kilometers.

The Russian army is currently advancing at eight sections of the front, which marks a new record. Below, we'll focus on four key directions, from north to south.

Kursk direction: Ongoing battles and the encirclement of the AFU

The situation here hasn't changed much since our last report, and clashes continue. Despite major challenges at other sections of the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is still sending reserves to Kursk. Kiev believes that retaining control over this section of the front is crucial since it gives it leverage with the new presidential administration in the US.

According to Western and Ukrainian sources, North Korean soldiers have reportedly been deployed to Kursk region, though their presence hasn't been confirmed.

Interesting fact: The first major encirclement of Ukrainian forces since the battles for Mariupol (which occurred in the spring of 2022) happened at this section of the front - several hundred AFU soldiers found themselves encircled near Olgovskaya grove. Russian President Vladimir Putin relayed this information on October 24, and by November 20, the area had been cleared.

What's the current situation? This week, battles have become more intense. Kursk remains one of the few directions where Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking, able to hold their ground and even occasionally advancing.

Pokrovsk direction: Russians advance along the railway

The Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) urban agglomeration is the second largest urban area in Donbass that remains partially under Ukrainian control (along with the Slaviansk-Kramatorsk urban area).

Before the war, its population was around 200,000 people. Moreover, the city is a crucial logistics hub for supplying Ukrainian forces along the entire southern front.

At the end of summer, the Pokrovsk direction was considered a priority; however, after the city of Novogrodovka was captured with minimal resistance, further progress westward stalled. Selidovo (the pre-war population of the city and its suburbs was about 50,000) held out for nearly two months, but, surrounded from the north and south, it eventually fell without major urban combat. Following a brief pause, the Russian army resumed its advance toward Pokrovsk, moving around the city's southern flank.

Interesting fact: Russian troops mainly advanced along the main railway line, moving from Avdeevka to Novogrodovka. Now, the Russians are also advancing along another railway line further south, which leads directly to Pokrovsk.

What's the current situation? Since the end of November, Russian troops have advanced further - breaking through Ukrainian defensive lines near Novotroitskoye, they moved closer to Pokrovsk and are now positioned 10-11 kilometers south of the city.

Civilians have been evacuated from Pokrovsk (pre-war population 60,000) and the supply of electricity and gas to the city has been cut off. Will the AFU be able to hold their flanks and engage in serious urban combat? Most likely, Ukrainians will attempt to do so, driven by the same political motivations as in Kursk region.

Kurakhovo: The main hotspot

The battles for Kurakhovo began right after the fall of Ugledar in early October. The Russians advanced from several directions: from the north toward the reservoir, from the front line via Ostroye-Ostrovskoye, from the south via Bogoyavlenka, and along a broader front from Yasnaya Polyana to Konstaninopol. The latter direction was also useful for encircling Velikaya Novoselka, which we'll discuss below.

Interesting fact: The Kurakhovo operation has been the biggest one since Mariupol; it involves two groups of troops, and encompasses an area of 1,200 square kilometers. While it may not be a strategic-scale operation, it is quite significant. For example, the area of the Avdeevka operation was less than one tenth the size, and the infamous "Bakhmut meat grinder" was one fifth or one fourth its size. The map shows only the central area of this operation.

What's the current situation? Over the past week, two significant developments occurred. First, Russian forces have taken control over the entire northern bank of the reservoir and the village of Starye Terny, along with the dam. This gives them complete fire control over both the residential areas and the industrial zone located to the west, where a thermal power station is located.

Second, the Russians are pushing the Ukrainians out of the area along the Sukhie Yaly River south of the city. Their foes have practically been driven into a ravine along the river, with some sources even suggesting that encirclement is imminent.

However, even despite desperate situation, the Ukrainian forces are clinging to their positions along the river since if they lose control over this area, the city will fall within a few days.

Velikaya Novoselka: In memory of Ukraine's counteroffensive

Velikaya Novoselka is a relatively large settlement with a population of around 6,000 (more than that of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region). This area is held by various Ukrainian forces, including half a dozen AFU brigades, territorial defense units, the National Guard, and some marine units.

By the end of November, the situation for the AFU grew a lot worse following the unexpected breakthrough of Russian forces toward the highway near Razdolnoye, north of Velikaya Novoselka.

Once again, the Russian army had employed its preferred strategy - flanking and encircling the settlement and securing control over communications. Combined with continuous pressure from the front, this quickly depletes the enemy's resources. The AFU has a tendency to hold onto their positions even in desperate circumstances and to withdraw only when it's too late, so this tactic has been particularly costly for the Ukrainians.

Interesting fact: During the summer of 2023, this was one of two key directions of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Over four months, the AFU managed to advance only 5-6 kilometers southward, from Velikaya Novoselka to the settlement of Urozhaynoye. In contrast, Russian forces have advanced about 20km on the eastern flank just in the past month.

What's the current situation? Reports indicate that the AFU has deployed a reserve mechanized brigade to reinforce the flanks around Velikaya Novoselka. This has not been confirmed, but we do know that the Ukrainians managed to launch a series of counterattacks, successfully repelling the advance of the Russian troops in the village of Novy Komar and easing some of the pressure on the northern flank of Velikaya Novoselka.

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