© News Forensics
As an analyst I have to be self-critical.
Yesterday, as I was proofreading my last post, rather late at night, I started to ask myself what bothered me so much about recent discussions among prominent figures in the Internet commentariat about peace negotiations with Russia, focusing on the future of Ukraine.
In Western-centric MSM and its derivative "MadM "(Mainstream Additional Media), the assumption seems to be that the Hegemon is still the Hegemon, when it is more like Rome in 400 AD after the center of power had shifted to the East.
In 400 AD, the Roman elites still thought themselves able to call the shots.
Today, the West thinks the same, assuming they can bend Russia to its will and force it to reverse itself on Ukraine - to leave an undemocratic, neo-Nazi regime in place in the Ukraine as an extension of Western control - to "win the peace", as Mercouris says, using Robert Orr's phrase.
But power has shifted once again...to... the East!
Most of the people still genuflecting before America seemed not to have read - or at least not to have understood Putin's Valdai Speech, not as I did anyway. Granted -the speech is long - four hours or more. But is one of the most important and articulate statements made by a world leader in a hundred years. IMO.
Putin's speech, while lengthy, is straightforward: the "world order" has changed -and that unstable, warmongering Hegemon sits on an increasingly shaky throne.
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The tide is BRICS. The ocean is humanity. Putin explains all this.
From this speech, you can easily infer that the US has no concept of "peace" .
"Peace", as the Putin made clear at Valdai, depends on equality and respect and honesty and trust validated by keeping your word. These are things that the US has not demonstrated — nor its quasi-colonial vassal states in the G7 either.
Putin made all this clear to Scholz - who, of course, wasn't listening because his call was just to try to shore up support in an election he will hopefully lose.
An emotional reaction
If I think critically about myself , I think I reacted a little emotionally to hear people that I look up to — like Mercouris — talking nonsense and parroting things published in propaganda mills like the FT, the Economist, the New York Times and the Guardian — as though these media were worthy of trust.
It's hard to express. Maybe, it's like finding out an idealized girlfriend is hanging out with her ex-boyfriend who she claims to have broken off with "absolutely".
Say it aint so Alex!
My point of view is that the "war" is not with Ukraine - that is more of quasi -civil conflict in which Russian has taken a side.
The real war is with the Empire, what I call "the American Collective" — a war which started as soon as Russia showed signs of recovery and independence after Yeltsin and following the resolution of the CIA-supported Chechen wars.
"Cold war"? "Hot war"?
How about "Lukewarm war"?
War is like water - it has different temperatures and its shape depends on its container. In the case of Russia, the war has been heating up gradually for years. And the shape? All over the place.
Empires do not know "peace". They know only conquest and domination.
The US's geopolitical goal is to maintain its exceptionalist status - as God's "chosen" nation. "Negotiations" could only be a tactic to that end.
These arguments notwithstanding I thought I overdid my criticism of the Duran in those two articles, a teeny weeny itsy bitsy bikini bit.
But maybe not....
Today I saw that Biden has (reportedly) authorized the use of ATACMs missiles to attack "North Korean" forces in Kursk, despite Putin's warning that explicit authorization makes the US and NATO co-belligerents and will be replied to "in kind". I say, "reportedly" because there is no official statement . The NYT report is based on "anonymous" sources (as usual). The Whitehouse janitor. Or someone's mother-in-law .
But let's assume it is true.
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US President Joe Biden did not just give the Kiev regime the go-ahead to use long-range ATACMS missiles on the internationally recognized territory of Russia. In fact, he ordered the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use these shells against our country, Valentin Bogdanov, head of the VGTRK bureau in New York.
How can Russia reply?
Three weeks ago, Putin said official legitimization of ATACMS strikes on Russian territory would necessarily involve American support and make NATO complicit. It would be regarded as a declaration of war and Russia was prepared to respond appropriately. International law is on Russia's side — not that the West has ever cared about that.
Russia could of course strike US and NATO bases in Europe where ATACM missiles are housed. It could target NATO AWACS aircraft — or even satellites in the air and near space. The S400 has extensive coverage. And the Russians have other weapons, too.
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The Houthis Option
Option 1:
Simple missile and targeting system upgrades using Russian satellite data. That would do some damage although it might not actually sink, say, a carrier. But the US fleet would have to withdraw because of the threat ,
Option 2.
This would involve Russian targeting systems, EW, missiles, and operators in Yemen protected by multi-layered air defense. It would be expensive and take time to install. Oddly enough,.the Saudis would prefer this to Option 1 because the Russians would be fully in control.
Diplomatic Options
Russia can also let Trump know the consequences of them escalating exponentially - IF Trump does not repudiate Biden's decision — protecting the Donald's image as the "Peace President".
After all, when (if) Biden authorized ATACM missiles for use against Russia it was more of an attack on Trump than on Russia, which knows now how to counter the threat and has very effective countermeasures.
Many in the Trump camp - like Elon Musk and Trump Jr have criticized Biden's obvious attempt "to set up" Trump as Obama did in 2016, with provocative anti-Russia moves.
This is not 2016 whenTrump's mandate was qualified by losing to the popular vote to Hillary .
This time it was Trump who won the popular vote: no one can contest the legitimacy of his election. He need not fear Russiagate 2.0. He could easily turn this against the Democrats as the "Peace President" labeling them warmongers — which they certainly are.
I certainly agree with Larry Johnson and Alex Mercouris and most reputable military commenters on this changed situation!
The MSM (Mainstream Morons) of course, added in the unlikely presence of North Korean combat troops (LOL). The Alien Army More propaganda.
(Anonymous) official sources have told me the real story as the photo below shows...
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Joking aside.
The US has a long history of this making up stories. Remember the lies that led to the Iraq War. The NYT and MSM played their part in all of that. Then there was Afghanistan, Libya, Syria- it's a long list.
Trump and the Swamp
Trump's advisors unfortunately are all not of one mind.
First and foremost, you would enforce the actual energy sanctions on Russia. Russia is essentially a gas station with nukes. Putin is selling more oil and gas now than he did prewar through China and Russia. And you couple that with unleashing our energy, lifting our LNG ban, and his economy and his war machine will dry up very quickly,,In his first term, Trump's "team" was mostly Swamp Critters. Sadly, it still is.
So I think that will get Putin to the table. We have leverage, like taking the handcuffs off of the long-range weapons we provided Ukraine as well. And then, of course, I think we have plenty of leverage with Zelenskyy to get them to the table.
Mike Walz - Trump nominee for National Security Advisor NPR
Lizards, snakes,and frogs. That's how my cat Chappy got his tape worm. Governments get worms the same way — who go on to infest academic and the media and the bureaucracy.
Let us hope that Trump has learned. He has a choice. Chappy didn't. He ate snakes and frogs to survive.
Nothing will change
Let us also hope that Biden's "decision" is just media hype and hooplah.
The MSM says that Joe is "greenlighting " limited use of ATACMs. A lot depends on the what "limited" means. There is a huge fudge factor.
In any case....
Nothing new has happened. Strikes with the same missiles have been carried out before. Crimea, Novorossiya, Lugansk, attempts to strike the Crimean bridge.If it is real — "authorizing" these missiles which are already being used, less and less effectively, will not affect the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
The situation differs from the previous one only in the direction of missile strikes.
Our air defense forces are familiar with these types of weapons. Remember how at first the enemy managed to break through the air defenses, and how, the further away, the more often the enemy failed to do anything.
Andrey Medvedev. News Pravda
It will only harden Russian resolve to destroy the Ukrainian military completely and de-Nazify Ukraine — which will cease to exist as an independent state.
After all, with the incorporation of southern Ukraine and soon Eastern and South Western Ukraine in the RF, there will be nothing much left of what is now called "Western Ukraine".
Russian victory will also give BRICS a boost in expanding the multipolar order already developing.
People the world over love winners.
The rarest cat in the world — and its natural!
The Sokoke
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Ichi points out that HE is "rare" too. There is only one of him in the world. That is why he is called "Ichi" ("One", in Japanese).
Please buy Ichi a coffee in recognition of his rarity. Also it's cold in Japan and I need to buy him something to keep him warm.
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