The 2024 election is different in so many ways, and the campaign has six months to go, so the twists and turns are just starting.  Key issues are Trump’s trials, election interference, the open borders and its consequences, inflation, deficit spending, the national debt, crime, the state of the public educational system, aggression from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), war in the Middle East and Ukraine—and that is just a partial list of weighty issues.

It will also be different because the Democrat elites might replace President Biden and Vice President Harris as their candidates at or after their August convention in Chicago.

They would do this because they have to keep Trump out of the Oval Office in January 2025.  Period.  That is the grand strategic objective of the DNC in 2024 (and January 2025 if the Democrats win the House).  They know they will lose with Biden heading the ticket—even with cheating.  Cheating might cover 2 or 3 percent, and in 2024 it may be larger, perhaps 4 percent, because among other measures Democrats will make sure illegal aliens vote.  It is a singularly remarkable fact in American politics that Biden is such a disaster as a president that it is questionable whether he could win even with a 3 or 4 percent steal.  In sum, Democrat victory is uncertain.

So he has got to go.  The Bidens do not want to go and certainly fought behind the scenes to stay.  But Obama & Co. have explained that what the Biden family wants is second to the Party’s interests.  That is always first for Democrats.  Fundamentally, Biden and Obama know that Trump’s return to the White House will reveal the truth.  Moreover, once Biden is out of office and Trump in office, Communist dictator Xi Jinping no longer has use for him, and so Xi will ensure that some of the truth at least of what Biden did is revealed.  Consequently, Biden has an acute personal interest in stepping aside given his disastrous performance, charisma of a pet rock, absent enthusiasm among the Party faithful, and poll numbers that may yet enter the single digits, to ensure that someone else is elected.  More and more Americans are cognizant that the Biden presidency is something they stepped in and are trying to scrape off the bottom of their shoe.

Assuming Biden’s health lasts, the timing of his announcement will have to be at Chicago or just after to minimize the time Biden is a lame duck and to get on the ballot in all 50 states.  The convention will be his valedictory where he will be feted just before the party leaders bring out the old shepherd’s hook of Vaudeville theater days to yank him off the stage.  "Give ‘im the hook,” was the refrain for bad acts at Miner’s Bowery theater, and it will echo once again for a truly atrocious politician at the Chicago convention.  No doubt, the American people wish they could have a hand in "giving ‘im the hook.”  But they will be denied that satisfaction.

Instead, on November 5, 2024, they will have a "Candidate X,” or the "Mystery Candidate,” as yet unknown, but likely going to be Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama.  The advantages of this are massive for the Democrats.  That candidate can disown the Biden administration completely.  In essence, the Democrats will turn the page.  Disowning, disavowing, and burying Biden in real time while they proclaim the solution is at hand.  Whatever Biden did, our Mystery Candidate will promise the opposite between August and November 2024.  If Bidenomics destroyed the economy, Candidate X will promise to fix all problems.  If Biden opened the border, our mystery candidate will promise "comprehensive” reforms, including closing the border while providing path to "coming out of the shadows.”  If Russia is at war with Ukraine, there will be peace.  There will be a new "New Deal” or "New Frontier” or some adjective linked to noun that will promise to be the solution to all of the problems Biden caused.

This greatly complicates Trump’s campaign as he will have to run against Biden until dramatically, he will not.  He will have to rapidly re-tool to run against Newsom or Obama.  The time compression will make it difficult to portray Newsome or Obama accurately as the ruthless and odious politicians they are—and the continuation with a new face of Biden’s policies.  But for most Americans they may be blank page or even some may be positively inclined, at least to Obama.  They will not have Biden’s baggage; they will promise to solve all problems; and will have a tsunami of support from the media who will gin up excitement.  They will win back some support Biden has lost in that wave of excitement.  How much is a critical question.  At the same time, Biden will continue what he has been doing, employing the White House and Department of Justice to attack Trump.  Trump will have to run against Biden and Obama or Newsom simultaneously.  Biden can be the "bad cop” while Newsome or Obama play the "good cop” and the bright future that will come with their presidency, and the dark days of the Trump, and dare they say it, Biden years, will be over.

This election year will be historic in every respect.  But its broad outlines, including the Democrat’s candidate, are as yet unknown.  Surprise and dramatic changes are certain.  Every election is a climb, but this is Everest.  Trump’s challenges, are already prodigious, will become even greater.  Trump, the campaign, and Trump supporters have to be prepared for and possess equally an unyielding and indefatigable determination coupled with a dynamic flexibility to best whatever is in the Democrats’ bag of tricks and the inevitable domestic and global tribulations.  This is right here.  Right now.  There is no second chance.

Bradley A. Thayer is a Contributing Columnist for Warroom and is @bradleythayer on Gettr and Truth, and @bradthayer at X.  He is the coauthor with James E. Fanell of Embracing Communist China:  America’s Greatest Strategic Failure.