At the change of presidential administrations, it is appropriate to consider the global standing of the U.S. The outlook is challenging for the new Trump administration due to the profound failures of the Biden administration. In the consideration of the great difficulties that Trump will confront, commentators have noted that a nascent Eurasian Bloc of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, North Korea, and Iran will pose the major strategic problem for the U.S. To be sure, a Eurasian Bloc is a great danger for U.S. national security but at the root of the Bloc is the existential threat of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Therefore, the CCP should be the foremost focus of the Trump administration.

The PRC is a hyper-aggressive enemy of the United States whose ambition is the destruction of the U.S. The PRC knows no limits to the growth of its conventional and nuclear forces, and the avenues of attack it will employ against the American people. These pathways include fentanyl, cyber penetrations of U.S. government and infrastructure, and the soldiers and intelligence agents who have entered the U.S. via the Biden administration’s open borders policy. The PRC is the foundation and driving force behind the Eurasian Bloc. It conducts military exercises with Russia, aids Moscow in war with Ukraine, and supports Iran and North Korea. It is an existential threat to the U.S.

Russia is a nuclear superpower, but its economy is smaller than Texas’. Its war against Ukraine has cost it mightily. At the same time, fighting a war teaches many lessons that likely have improved its conventional military effectiveness, even if the tuition was frightfully expensive as it was paid in the blood of Russia’s soldiers and civilians. It is a great power threat to the U.S., but it is far from the existential threat that is the PRC. Despite the "no limits” friendship proclaimed by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, in the harsh and unforgiving world of power politics, the growth of PRC’s power also threatens Russian national security.

North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and delivery systems continue to grow, its cyber capabilities remain potent, and the military assistance and force it has sent to aid Russia’s war show that it remains a dangerous regional power.

Iran is a threat to Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf sheikdoms, and to the U.S.’s interests in the region. It appears Tehran is only a half-step away from its possessing nuclear weapons. Its assassination squads reportedly are operating in the U.S. to kill President Trump, members of his family, and others. Iran attacked Israel in April and October 2024, and its support for Hezbollah remains a threat to Israel. It has provided support for Russia’s war. Moreover, Tehran’s support for the Houthis in Yemen threatens Israel and Saudi Arabia, and has plagued international shipping, forcing a U.S. and allied response to their attacks. Iran too is a major regional power with great ambition.

The fact that there is increasing cooperation between and among these states is alarming and must be addressed by the Trump administration. Each of these countries is a threat, but they are not equal, only the PRC threat is existential.

In warfare, whether kinetic or political, the objective is victory. Victory is achieved most effectively and at the least cost by targeting the enemy’s center of gravity, or focal point, the centripetal force that holds the system together. So while the U.S. and its allies face a Eurasian Bloc, it is necessary to consider its center of gravity. Viewing the situation through that lens, permits the realization that the CCP is the Bloc’s center of gravity. In essence, Xi is calling the shots.

He is because power is the coin of the realm in international politics. Power—economic and military might—wedded to hostile intentions make the PRC an existential threat. The PRC’s global influence and military capabilities have grown year-after-year. Only the first Trump administration identified the threat and labored to address it. Evidence of Beijing’s hyper-aggression is myriad from the South China Sea to the expansion of its conventional and nuclear capabilities. In particular, the growth of the PRC’s nuclear capabilities has been described as "breathtaking” by both the former U.S. Strategic Command Commander U.S. Navy Admiral Charles Richard and by the current Commander of Strategic Command, U.S. Air Force General Anthony Cotton.

The capabilities are there. So is the intent. The CCP declared "People’s War” against the U.S. in 2019. In the Communist argot, that requires the mobilization and focus to destroy the U.S. In fact, the CCP has been waging war against the U.S. since it came to power in 1949. But now they have the power to realize their ambitions. They have the power and intent to destroy the U.S.

Thus, the U.S. response must target the center of gravity that is the CCP. It was Xi who proclaimed the "no limits” relationship with Russia that has fueled the war. The PRC has provided diplomatic and economic aid to Russia, and there are suspicions that military aid has been also given. No doubt, at some point the world will find out that Xi approved and facilitated North Korea’s troops to aid Russia. The PRC’s ties to Iran allow Tehran to continue its aggression in the Middle East.

Accordingly, stopping the Beijing-Moscow-Pyongyang-Tehran relationship requires cutting the head off the snake: the CCP. Ernesto "Che” Guevara said of the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam war that he wanted "two, three, many Vietnams” for the U.S. to bleed and weaken it. Today, Xi wants "two, three, many Ukraines” to occupy U.S. attention, drain U.S. resources, and increase the PRC’s relative power vis-à-vis the U.S. At the same time, it also strengthens the PRC’s power vis-à-vis Russia. The war occupies Putin’s attention, securing the PRC’s northern front with Russia, ensuring Putin’s pliability, and increasing the PRC’s relative power over Russia.
Preventing a PRC victory over the U.S. requires a singular focus on the CCP. The U.S. must target it through political warfare while augmenting U.S. conventional and nuclear capabilities, in conjunction with allies and partners, to deter its aggression.

The threats the U.S. faces from Russia, North Korea, and Iran are not equal to CCP’s. The CCP’s elimination removes critical support for Putin and his camarilla, the Ayatollahs in Tehran, and Kim Jong Un’s power. Given the Biden administration’s and the U.S. foreign policy community’s emphasis on Ukraine, there is concern that calls to address a Eurasian Bloc is an effort to continue the war in Ukraine rather than supporting President Trump’s efforts to end it after January 20th. For those who want to continue the war, Ukraine is subsumed into the larger struggle against the Bloc and therefore must be continued. To consider these threats as equal is a profound strategic mistake. It will only serve to continue threat deflation against the CCP rather than addressing it as the existential threat it is. Given the urgency of the threat, now is the time for the U.S. to formulate policies to end the conflict and to enlist both Kyiv and Moscow in the fight against the CCP. The longer the war continues, the better for Xi. To defeat the Eurasian Bloc, defeat the CCP.

Bradley A. Thayer is a Contributing Columnist for Warroom and is the coauthor with James R. Fanell of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure. Find him on Gettr and Truth as @bradleythayer and as @bradthayer on X. His opinions are his own.