Subject: Dave Walsh Breaks Down President Trump’s Likely Oil Strategy in Response to Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Energy expert Dave Walsh joined Steve Bannon on Monday’s WarRoom to deliver a stark assessment: President Donald Trump’s public pressure campaign on American oil companies to hold prices steady amid Persian Gulf instability is smart—but likely doomed. Despite Trump’s call for patriotism over profit, Big Oil has historically tracked with OPEC pricing, not presidential jawboning.

Quick Clip from Monday:

DAVE WALSH: Trump is warning U.S. oil producers, don’t follow global price hikes if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

We barely import from there, but prices could still surge to $120 a barrel.

It’s a message to keep energy prices low and not play into OPEC’s hand. pic.twitter.com/MLHYEYNfKO

— Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) June 23, 2025

Situation Overview:
As tensions flared in the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. strikes on Iran, President Trump made a bold move—publicly calling out American oil companies to avoid exploiting global turmoil for price hikes. Trump posted direct messages aimed at oil majors like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Marathon, demanding they resist the urge to raise prices in line with potential global spikes.

Dave Walsh, former top energy executive, told Bannon the message is clear but the odds are slim: these companies will follow market pricing, not presidential wishes.

Key Walsh Takeaways:

The Market Rules:
Walsh explained that global oil pricing is set in international markets, and American companies almost always "track” OPEC benchmarks. Even if the U.S. imports minimal oil from the Gulf region, the global spot price drives domestic pricing. This means that even a disruption far away—like a blockade or attack in the Strait—can send U.S. gas prices soaring.

Trump’s Strategic Play:
By "jawboning” producers via social media, Trump hopes to rally national sentiment and shame oil giants into putting America First, especially as tensions rise and consumers brace for pain at the pump. But Walsh notes: this "moral ask” won’t override Wall Street’s profit mandates.

Iran’s Gamble:
Walsh and Bannon dissected why Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz may be bluster. Iran exports up to 2.5 million barrels a day—mostly to China—and relies heavily on that revenue. Blocking the Strait would cripple their own economy, making it a suicidal move unless aimed at forcing Chinese and Gulf state solidarity against Israel and the U.S.

Market Calm… For Now:
Despite the headlines, oil prices ticked down 1% following the strike. Walsh said markets are in "wait-and-see mode,” betting the Strait won’t be fully closed. But if Iran mines the waters or disrupts shipping lanes, oil could jump from $85 to $125—or even $200 per barrel, depending on severity.

Strategic Warning:
The real danger isn’t just military escalation—it’s the domestic economic blowback if oil surges. Walsh believes U.S. consumers could be punished at the pump even if America doesn’t import from the region. Trump’s appeal to energy companies is both strategic and symbolic—a public dare for them to show loyalty. But unless paired with executive-level levers or new regulations, Big Oil will likely do what it’s always done: follow the money.

Follow Dave Walsh for more insight:

X (Twitter): @dwalshenergy

Gettr: @dwalshenergy

WarRoom Energy Coverage: Stay tuned to Bannon’s WarRoom for upcoming strategy sessions as global energy shocks loom.

End SITREP

For more context, watch Monday’s WarRoom segment featuring Dave Walsh:

Dave Walsh On Trump’s Warning To U.S. Oil Producers: "Don’t Follow Global Price Hikes”