CNN expert reveals a 'tremendous change' among Hispanic voters since 2020 — and it's all bad news for Joe Biden
CNN polling data expert Harry Enten is sounding the alarm for Democrats as Hispanic voters increasingly abandon President Joe Biden.
Speaking with CNN anchor Anderson Cooper on Wednesday, Enten broke down some of the latest polling data that should worry Biden and Democrats while putting Republicans and Donald Trump at ease.
"This is one of the trend lines that I think really tells the story," Enten began. "If you ask voters, 'Who do you think would do a better job handling border security and immigration?' What do we see? We see that back in 2020, it was basically a dead-even split, right? Joe Biden was slightly favored, but not overwhelmingly."
"Look at where we are today, in a Marquette University Law School poll that was put out last month, look at that advantage that Donald Trump has on immigration and border security: It's near 30 points," he explained. "This is a tremendous change that's going on and it is no wonder that Donald Trump is running on immigration."
Conventional politics suggests that some Hispanic voters would be turned off by Trump's strong immigration rhetoric, Enten said.
But that "ain't the case" now, he explained, because Hispanic voters trust Trump to handle the border crisis.
"If you ask Hispanic voters who do they trust more on border security and immigration? Overwhelmingly, they trust Donald Trump more by a tremendous margin. Look at that, 49% to 24%," Enten said.
According to Enten, Hispanic voters overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020. But his lead of more than 20 points has now evaporated because of the border crisis.
"If you look at the polling right now, on an average of polling among Hispanic voters, who did they choose in the ballot test? It's barely Biden — by about two points," Enten explained. "It would be the smallest margin for any Democratic candidate among Hispanic voters, basically, throughout history since we started polling the gosh darn thing."
Not only do voters trust Trump to handle the border crisis as immigration becomes the top election issue, but Biden is actually losing ground among all non-white voters.
Democrats' advantage among Hispanic, Asian, and black voters, in fact, is at its lowest point since 1960, according to the Financial Times.
There are many reasons for this growing voter realignment. From FT:
Part of this is due to fading memories and weakening ties. Black Americans who lived through the civil rights era still support the party at very high levels, but younger generations are wavering. There’s also the weakening correlation between income and voter choice in US politics. The image of the GOP as the party of wealthy country club elites is dimming, opening the door to working- and middle-class voters of all ethnicities.
More ominous for the Democrats is a less widely understood dynamic: many of America’s non-white voters have long held much more conservative views than their voting patterns would suggest. The migration we’re seeing today is not so much natural Democrats becoming disillusioned but natural Republicans realising they’ve been voting for the wrong party.
It turns out that a "less racially divided America is an America where people vote more based on their beliefs than their identity," wrote John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter at FT.
"This is bad news for Democrats," he explained.
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