The U.S. Census Bureau will now count refugees and border releases in its population estimates, a move that will affect congressional apportionment and demographic data. In a blog post Thursday announcing the change, the bureau noted, “a net of 2.8 million people migrated to the United States between 2023 and 2024. This is significantly higher than our previous estimates.”
The data offers a glimpse of how congressional apportionment maps could change by 2030. It also shows how, as U.S. citizens flee states with garbage leftist policies, the inclusion of noncitizens in census data allows those states to keep congressional seats because their population is propped up by illegal aliens.
Every 10 years, shortly after the census, the congressional apportionment process divides the 435 congressional seats among the 50 states, based on population. The more people in your state, the more members of Congress. Based on the 2020 census, California sends 52 representatives to the House; North Dakota sends one.
California sends mostly Democrats to the House, with congressional voting power that overshadows states like Republican leaning North Dakota, making the ownership of congressional seats a national concern.
Based on the Census Bureau’s new estimates, immigration in the south will change the apportionment map in key Republican states.
Using the new numbers, The American Redistricting Project (ARP) forecast a 2030 map that pulls congressional seats out of Democrat-leaning states and adds to Republican-leaning states.
The ARP predicts states losing seats will be California, losing three; New York, two; and Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, each down one. The picture is different when you compare “international migration,” that is, people who have come from another country, with “domestic migration,” U.S. citizens who move from one state to another.
Domestically, people are leaving Democrat-led states in droves. California is down 239,575 domestically, but it gained 361,057 internationally. New York lost 120,917 people domestically and gained 207,161 internationally. Illegal immigration is slowing the loss of population and congressional seats in blues states.
“They would have lost more if not for international migration offsetting losses,” Adam Kincaid, ARP president and executive director, told The Federalist.
The ARP predicts Texas and Florida will each gain four seats and Idaho, Utah, and Arizona will each add one congressional seat. Texas and Florida are among the top five states in terms of growth from both domestic and international migration.
But these predictions far from set in stone. Incoming President Donald Trump has said he will close the border, limit immigration, and remove people who are in the U.S. illegally.
“If that happens, we should see the overall domestic and international migration trends return to where they were before the Biden administration. If that’s the case, a lot of these blue states are going to start seeing their apportionment numbers drop off again,” Kincaid said.
“They’ve recovered a bit because of the international migration numbers. If those flat line, people are still continuing to leave the states. The domestic migration patterns continue to show that. Democrats may be feeling better about where they stand versus where they were two years ago, but a lot of their apportionment, a lot of their seats in Congress, are being propped up by people coming in this country as humanitarian parolees, or illegally.”
The Census Bureau said it has “refined” its methods, and its database is now “compiled using U.S. federal administrative data” on the following: lawful permanent residents; visa issuances; international student enrollees; refugee admissions; and border releases.
The 14th Amendment requires that “Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state.” The “whole number” has traditionally been understood to provide congressional representation for every person in a district, not just citizens eligible to vote.
“Generally, we should want an apportionment that best reflects the people of the United States and where they live,” Kincaid said. “If people are voting with their feet and moving from California to Florida, that should be reflected in our apportionment.”
The new numbers illustrate how illegal immigration can shape the balance of power for U.S. voters.
The Census Bureau asks about citizenship in its annual American Community Survey, but asking about citizenship on its 10-year census became a political issue in 2018 when President Donald Trump called on the bureau to put the question “Are you a U.S. citizen?” back on the census, as it had been in past years. As Federalist contributor Ben Weingarten reported at the time, Democrats fought the request. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump on a technicality, and the question was not used in 2020.
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