Today, most Americans know Arizona as a closely watched battleground in national and state politics. But this wasn’t always the case.

Up until the 2020 election, the Democrat Party had only won Arizona in one presidential race (1996) since President Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, claimed its electoral votes in 1952. While its history of Senate and gubernatorial races offered slightly different results, the state was largely considered a solid “red” state — that is until present day.

In recent years, the Grand Canyon State has shed its “red” hue for a “purple” one. Both of its U.S. Senate seats are occupied by Democrat-caucusing leftists, and many of its statewide offices (such as secretary of state and attorney general) are filled by Democrats.

Now, with Democrat Katie Hobbs in the governor’s mansion, leftists are set on completing their statewide takeover by winning control of the Arizona Legislature this November. With one-seat majorities in the state House and Senate, Republicans are fighting to maintain the only power they possess to prevent a Democrat trifecta government from turning Arizona into the next California.

“The reality is that Democrats have an entire plan to turn Arizona ‘blue,'” Arizona Free Enterprise Club (AZFEC) President Scot Mussi told The Federalist. “If Republican [voters] fail to vote Republican down ticket or just leave it blank, that’s how the Democrats can pick up seats.”

A Changing Political Landscape

Arizona’s political leanings didn’t change overnight. Rather, the shift came after years-long efforts by Democrat groups to remake the state in their image, according to several conservative activists in the state who spoke with The Federalist.

Strong Communities Foundation of Arizona (SCFA) Chair Merissa Hamilton told The Federalist that the left has “been doing massive organizing in the state” for well over a decade. These efforts, she said, includes mobilization among “primarily Arizona-based organizations” that are “fully funded” with left-wing dark money.

In 2022, AZ Free News published an investigative story unraveling the widespread web of Democrat-aligned groups and donors working to advance leftist priorities throughout the state. Among those highlighted are One Arizona and Arizona Wins. While the former works to register demographics likely to vote for Democrats, the latter is “a lobbying organization that operates as a coalition of advocacy groups and labor unions working to advance left-of-center policies in Arizona,” according to InfluenceWatch.

Hamilton and Mussi also cited migration from states such as California as a major factor responsible for Arizona’s leftward drift. A Stacker analysis of U.S. census data published earlier this year found individuals fleeing the Golden State comprised more than 26 percent of Arizona’s new residents in 2022 alone.

“Due to [these] demographic changes, elections have become much more contested up and down the ticket in Arizona than they were seven or eight years ago,” Mussi said. “The combination of shifts within suburban areas and others … that’s been seen nationally is happening in Arizona.”

The AZFEC president expressed optimism, however, that the Grand Canyon State’s electorate is steadily shifting back toward the right. He specifically pointed to the positive gains the GOP has made in registering new voters.

According to Newsweek, “Republicans [in the state are] now outpacing Democrats in voter registration by a substantial margin.” In Maricopa County, the state’s most populous locality, Democrats “have seen a sharp 15 percent decline in voter registration since the 2020 election,” the outlet reported.

State of the Race

While Arizona’s political preferences may be in flux, the issues impacting Americans nationwide are constant problems for many Grand Canyon State voters, according to state GOP candidates who spoke with The Federalist.

Carine Werner is a Republican running to unseat Democrat State Sen. Christine Marsh to represent Legislative District 4. Speaking with The Federalist, she said the top issues that come up when talking with voters in her “competitive” suburban district are the economy and ongoing crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.

“The issues facing our district aren’t partisan: we need to support law enforcement, secure the border, reduce the impact of inflation, and ensure families can make the best educational choice for their kids,” Werner said.

Republican State Rep. Cory McGarr, a member of the Arizona Freedom Caucus running for reelection in House District 17, told The Federalist similar issues have arisen in his conversations with voters. He noted how such problems would get exponentially worse should Democrats win the battle for the legislature this year, specifically pointing to how Colorado Democrats wreaked havoc on that state after taking trifecta control.

“Colorado used to be a bright, vibrant red state, and then the Democrats took control,” McGarr said. “The taxes went through the roof, [Coloradans] lost gun rights. … [and it’s] no longer an affordable place to live.”

If Arizona Democrats win this fall, you will “see our state go from a commonsense state to California in the next few years,” he added.

It’s not only the same political issues at play in Werner and McGarr’s respective races, however. Both candidates said the biggest hurdle facing their campaigns is the influx of Democrat money flooding their districts and Arizona writ large.

In June, left-wing mouthpiece Axios reported Democrats’ strategy of pouring millions of dollars into down ballot races in hopes of flipping or “reach[ing] ties in chambers in Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and even Wisconsin — where Democrats have fought to keep the GOP from a supermajority in the Assembly in recent years.” The following month, the Democratic National Committee dumped nearly $1.5 million into Arizona to boost voter outreach and on-the-ground operations.

According to a recent AZ Free News report, a significant amount of money in Arizona’s elections is coming from out-of-state. For example, the outlet’s analysis reportedly found that most of those who donated to PAC for America’s Future, a Democrat super PAC and one of the largest donors in Arizona this cycle, “come from sizable contributions by wealthy out-of-state Democrats.”

The breakdown highlighted how several of the PAC’s donors are from California.

‘Don’t California My Arizona’

With so much at stake this November, Mussi and Hamilton are rallying their respective organizations to sound the alarm about the importance of state legislative races.

The Arizona Free Enterprise Club has launched its “Don’t California My Arizona” campaign to educate voters about the dangerous policies Democrats will enact if they’re successful in winning control of the state House and Senate. While AZFEC is spearheading the effort, it is looking to “partner with every [friendly] organization in the state to promote this, [and] to educate and inform voters,” according to Mussi.

“It’s hard to be aware of what’s happening in Arizona, and most voters don’t know that Republicans, in fact, only have a one-seat majority in our state House and Senate,” he said. “We’re gonna encourage everyone to share and inform people in Arizona what’s at stake and why we must ensure that the left can’t California [our] Arizona.”

The Strong Communities Foundation of Arizona is undertaking similar efforts to educate voters ahead of Election Day, according to Hamilton. The group offers an “Inflation Relief Scorecard” for voters that grades Hobbs and Arizona lawmakers on their support or opposition to bills in recent legislative sessions that sought to ease inflation in the state.

SCFA is also making voter outreach and education a big facet of its general election efforts. According to Hamilton, the group “sent out mailers to 100,000 voters and put out 856,000 text messages” during the state’s 2024 primary elections emboldening electors to “vote their whole ballot.”

“We’ll be launching another campaign similar to that in the general encouraging voters to vote for those local races [and] state races on [their] ballot,” she said. “Your whole ballot in Arizona literally determines the destiny of our state this year.”

The SFCA chair added that her organization will be “doing regular voter education to let [voters] know what’s on their ballot [and] what these different levels of offices are responsible for” once early voting begins so electors have the “information they need to make the decisions as to who they think should best lead to our legislature.”

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