The hope of a post-dropout polling bump for Vice President Kamala Harris was dashed on Tuesday, and a slew of new numbers showed former President Donald Trump standing strong against his new opponent.
The first poll conducted fully since President Joe Biden ended his campaign on Sunday shows Trump carrying a healthy 2% lead over Harris in a national matchup. The vice president’s showing is an improvement from Biden’s last position before dropping out when he was behind Trump by 6%.
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Post-drop out poll: Morning Consult
🟥 Donald Trump: 47% (+2)
🟦 Kamala Harris: 45%https://t.co/gmu19ULmMD pic.twitter.com/y2q4EXvigp— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024
The results only get worse from there when factoring in polls that began post-dropout and continued into this week. Quinnipiac reported that Trump leads Harris 45% to 41% among 1,257 registered voters surveyed from July 19th – two days before Biden dropped out – through Sunday. Among independents, Trump holds a commanding 14-point lead.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @QuinnipiacPoll
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Other: 4%Independents
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 32%
🟨 RFK Jr: 11%
🟪 Other: 7%#19 (2.8/3.0) | July 19-21 | 1,257 RV https://t.co/dR9PzUOOIl https://t.co/Q1gIXgXOp2 pic.twitter.com/OhJjihTzg3
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024
A poll conducted by Harris and Forbes during that same period shows Trump with an even more remarkable 10-point lead over Harris among 2,169 likely voters, a margin that slims down to 9% when undecided voters are asked to choose one candidate.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Among 2,169 likely voters by @Harris_X_ for @Forbes
🟥 Trump: 52%
🟦 Harris: 42%
⬜ Undecided: 6%With leans
🟥 Trump: 54%
🟦 Harris: 46%
—
#161 (1.6/3.0) | July 19-21 | 2,169 LVhttps://t.co/aftIVaQhd4 https://t.co/gK9W0GpOYK pic.twitter.com/eQG2zGoD5P— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024
And before President Biden dropped out of the race, the left-leaning Public Policy Polling reported Harris trailing Trump in four of the most pivotal battleground states of the election. Between July 11 and 12, Trump led the new presidential nominee by 6% in Pennsylvania, 8% in Arizona, 2% in Michigan, and 1% in Wisconsin.
Swing States Polling by @ppppolls for Progress Action Fund (Dem, July 11-12)
Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +6 (51-45)
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +8 (52-44)
Michigan – 🔴 Trump +2 (48-46)
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +1 (49-48)
——
Donald Trump vs Gavin Newsom… https://t.co/vK8ZOBi3VK pic.twitter.com/RhgZk3PcQQ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024
Democrats breathed a collective sigh of relief with the prospect of Vice President Harris reenergizing the party’s base just over 100 days before Election Day. However, the latest results underscore fears that she will not be able to shake the baggage of Biden’s three and a half years in office, a period marked by increased prices on gas, groceries, and most household goods and services across the economy. Among 11 national polls Since Biden’s disastrous first debate on June 27th, Trump has led Harris by an average of 1.5%, only marginally lower than the 1.9% he averaged against Biden, the Washington Post reported.
Also weighing on Harris will be her record as vice president. She scored the lowest approval rating ever recorded by a vice president back in June, according to NBC, with 32% approval and 49% disapproval. Among several high-profile missteps is also the question about her accomplishments: she has oscillated between various roles in the administration, at some points serving as the point person for immigration, artificial intelligence, or foreign policy in Africa. None seemed to have stuck, making it harder for Democrats to point to a significant record for her to run on.
Instead, notable allies like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have pointed to Harris’ record on abortion or time as an attorney general. “I endorse Kamala Harris for President. She is a proven fighter who has been a national leader in safeguarding consumers and protecting access to abortion. As a former prosecutor, she can press a forceful case against allowing Donald Trump to regain the White House. We have many talented people in our party, but Vice President Harris is the person who was chosen by the voters to succeed Joe Biden if needed. She can unite our party, take on Donald Trump, and win in November,” Warren said two days after Biden announced he was ending his campaign.
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