Democrats are struggling to gain traction in New Jersey’s 7th District, a key battleground area that remains difficult for them to flip despite President Joe Biden’s past victory there.

According to The Cook Political Report (CPR), Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. is holding a steady lead over Democratic challenger Sue Altman. Kean Jr.’s popularity is bolstered by the legacy of his father, former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean, and Altman has yet to gain significant traction in the expensive and competitive New York City media market. These factors have led Cook to move its race rating from “toss-up” to “leans Republican.”

Congressman Thomas Kean Jr.

CPR’s Erin Covey noted the inherent advantages Democrats have in New Jersey’s 7th District. “On paper, New Jersey’s 7th is the kind of district where Democrats should be on the rise,” she explained, referencing Joe Biden’s four-percentage-point win in this affluent suburban area in 2020. “But [Kean], the son of popular former Gov. Tom Kean and the former minority leader in the state Senate, will be a difficult incumbent to take out.” With the election just five weeks away, she added, “Democrats aren’t particularly optimistic about their chances here.”

 

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Another survey conducted by the campaign of Altman indicates that she is nearly even with Kean Jr., trailing by only two points, a difference that falls within the poll’s margin of error. POLITICO accessed a summary memo of the poll, which included both the survey questions and results. The results show Kean leading with 47 percent, Altman close behind at 45 percent, and 7 percent of voters remaining undecided.

With Election Day fast approaching and less than four weeks left, Republicans are positioned to potentially seize control of the Senate, which is currently under Democratic leadership. Meanwhile, in the House, where Republicans maintain a slim majority of 221-to-214, the Democrats are just four seats away from flipping the House to secure a marginal lead.

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In Virginia’s 7th District, the race between Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman remains tight. Vindman has poured significant resources into TV ads, dominating airwaves, but Anderson’s grassroots support has kept the race competitive. While this district voted for Biden by a seven-point margin in 2020, recent polling indicates the gap may be closing, putting Democrats on edge.

Due to the latest developments, both races have been adjusted in favor of the Republicans: New Jersey’s 7th has shifted from Toss Up to Lean Republican, while Virginia’s 7th has moved from Lean Democrat to Toss Up. Though New Jersey’s 7th District initially seemed like a ripe opportunity for Democrats, the party is now facing an uphill battle.

Vindman declared his candidacy in November of last year to fill the seat of Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s competitive 7th District. Vindman is known for his role in exposing the 2019 phone call between then-President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which ultimately led to Trump’s first impeachment on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, according to NBC. He was the first Democrat to enter the race.

Rachel Vindman, the sister-in-law of Eugene Vindman, removed a social media post last month that drew criticism for its tone regarding the second attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life. This followed an FBI report from September stating that Trump was the target of another assassination attempt at his West Palm Beach golf club in Florida. “No ears were harmed. Carry on with your Sunday afternoon,” she tweeted. This came just nine weeks after the first assassination attempt at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania in July.