A recent poll from Pennsylvania’s crucial bellwether counties, Erie and Northampton, spells trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris as she struggles to gain traction in this must-win state. With less than a month until Election Day, former President Donald Trump leads by a narrow margin, signaling a shift in these historically predictive regions.

The Cygnal poll, conducted from September 30 to October 1, shows Trump with a slight edge, 49% to Harris’s 48%, among likely general election voters. It’s a slim lead, but one that comes with bigger implications for Harris’s campaign. In a reversal from 2020, these counties, which backed Trump in 2016 before flipping to Joe Biden in 2020, are now swinging back to the GOP. The change comes with concerns over the economy and immigration rise.

Key insights from the poll indicate Trump’s appeal as the candidate best suited to address the country’s challenges. By a 49-46 margin, voters in these counties believe Trump’s policies are more beneficial for people like them. Trump’s favorability rating, sitting at -4, is less underwater than Harris’s -8, indicating that the former president’s image among swing voters is more resilient. Notably, men under 55 years of age favor Trump by a striking 24-point margin, while Harris struggles with a 36-point net unfavorable rating in the same demographic.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 22, 2024. Donald Trump supporters during a Donald Trump rally in at the Liacouras Center

Another factor hindering Harris is the voter perception of the Democratic Party. The poll shows a net negative rating of -13 for the Democrats in these counties, compared to just -4 for Republicans. Despite the Democrats holding a 4-point registration advantage, the trend of disaffected ancestral Democrats abandoning their party continues.

A surprising finding from the poll is the speculation around Harris’s decision to select Tim Walz as her running mate instead of Pennsylvania’s Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA). Some Democrats expressed their regret over the choice, as a Harris-Shapiro ticket would have fared better in these counties, with a projected one-point lead (48-47) over Trump. Shapiro’s local popularity could have given her an edge.

Voters’ dissatisfaction with the direction of the country under the Biden-Harris administration is evident, with a staggering 64% of respondents saying the nation is on the wrong track. Trump’s message, positioning himself as the champion of the working class, appears to be resonating in these industrial counties. Among union households, Trump leads Harris by 16 points (57-41), demonstrating a significant shift among blue-collar voters who once formed the backbone of the Democratic base. Trump also holds an advantage among voters earning under $100,000 a year, a crucial demographic in the region.

The poll further shows that key issues like inflation, illegal immigration, and the economy are driving voter sentiment. Swing voters in these counties are particularly concerned about these issues, with over 57% of the area’s voters prioritizing economic issues. On immigration and border security, Trump holds a commanding 15-point lead over Harris (56-41), underscoring his campaign’s strength on these hot-button issues. Harris’s vulnerability on the issue of fracking also looms large in Pennsylvania. With half of voters supporting fracking and less than a third believing Harris’s recent shift to support the industry is genuine, Trump is capitalizing on doubts about her authenticity and policy consistency.

As the clock ticks down, Harris faces a steep uphill battle in these bellwether counties. For Trump, the opportunity is clear: continue doubling down on issues that matter to working-class voters and define Harris as out of touch with their concerns. If these trends hold, Pennsylvania could once again swing back to Trump, dealing a critical blow to Harris’s presidential hopes.

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