A slate of poor national polling for Vice President Kamala Harris filtered down into the swing states on Monday after election officials in a critical swing state reported a jump in enthusiasm for the GOP ticket.

A survey of political party affiliation among Pennsylvania voters showed that Republican Party registrations are outpacing their Democratic counterparts by a two-to-one margin, according to pollster Michael Pruser with Decision Desk HQ. During the month of September, more than 60,000 voters registered as Republicans while less than 37,000 registered as Democrats. Another 32,698 voters registered as independents.

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The change comes in what is shaping to be the most pivotal battleground of the 2024 election and will surely spark another round of recriminations among angsty Democrats. After Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s popular two-term Democratic governor, was passed over for Harris’s vice presidential pick, allies worried about the ramifications as well as concerns that the party was kowtowing to openly antisemitic elements within the party. Shapiro is Jewish and a vocal supporter of Israel. At the same time, Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has openly speculated that former President Donald Trump will carry his home state.

The results mirror others in swing states such as Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all where President Trump has posted modest leads in recent weeks. Democrats are struggling to shore up key elements of their traditional base, including Arab-Americans who now favor Trump equally despite his stronger support than Harris for Israel. In August, a Republican-aligned political action committee was found to be promoting anti-Harris messages in majority-Arab areas of Michigan encouraging voters to blank their ballot in opposition to her lack of support for Palestinian war victims.

Democrats in Arizona are likewise under siege after election officials found that upward of 100,000 voters had the wrong ballots mailed to them. Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs and top party members recently convened a call where they admitted the results are a disastrous look for candidates like U.S. Senate nominee Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) while wondering what little can be done given the ballots have already been mailed out.

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A slew of instances of voter fraud also compound the struggles of Democrats to justify that the results in swing states will be legitimate. On Monday, a Fox affiliate in St. Louis uncovered evidence of a labor union attempting to encourage noncitizens to vote, building on earlier instances of voter fraud in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and elsewhere. In response, the Republican National Committee has deployed an army of lawyers to monitor polling places and challenge discrepancies if they are located. President Trump has said he only intends to accept the results if they represent a “fair and legal and good election.”

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