Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is facing a fresh wave of anxiety after a new poll reveals a critical shift among Arab American voters in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The poll, released by the Arab American Institute (AAI), shows Harris and former President Donald Trump in a virtual dead heat, with 42% of Arab Americans supporting Trump and 41% backing Harris. The findings high point the growing concerns within the Harris campaign, particularly over the Biden Administration’s handling of the Gaza crisis, which appears to be a decisive factor for Arab Americans.

Arab Americans, traditionally a key Democratic constituency, are now evenly split between the two major parties, with 38% identifying as Democrats and an equal percentage identifying as Republicans. This is a significant rebound for the Democrats, who saw Arab American identification with their party plummet to an all-time low of 23% just last year. However, the new figure remains well below the community’s historic alignment with the Democrat Party.

The poll also indicates that Arab American support for the Biden-Harris ticket has dropped significantly since 2020. While Harris has regained some of the ground lost by President Joe Biden in recent months, her current level of support among Arab Americans, at 41%, is still 18 points lower than Biden’s 2020 showing with the group, when 59% of Arab American voters backed him.

One of the most striking findings of the poll is the central role that the Gaza crisis is playing in Arab American voters’ decision-making. A staggering 81% of respondents said that Gaza is an important issue in determining their vote in 2024, making it the second most important issue overall for the community, trailing only jobs and the economy.

For Arab American Democrats, Gaza was the top issue, highlighting the deep divisions and frustrations within the community regarding the Biden Administration’s stance on the conflict. Many Arab American voters have expressed disappointment with the administration’s approach, which they feel has not done enough to support Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict.

The poll suggests that both Harris and Trump could significantly boost their standing with Arab American voters if they were to adopt a more assertive position on Gaza. If Harris were to demand an immediate ceasefire and call for unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians, her support among Arab American voters would jump to around 60%, capturing a significant portion of Trump’s current base. Trump, too, would see a similar boost if he were to make such a demand, with his support rising to 55%.

Another concern for both campaigns is the declining enthusiasm among Arab American voters. The poll shows that only 63% of Arab Americans are enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election, a significant drop from the community’s historically high turnout rates. Among younger Arab Americans, aged 18 to 29, voter enthusiasm is even lower, with only 55% saying they are excited about participating in the 2024 election.

This decline in enthusiasm could have a major impact on turnout, which has traditionally been one of the strengths of the Arab American voting bloc. In previous elections, Arab American turnout has consistently been in the 80% range, but the lack of excitement surrounding the current candidates could depress participation this year. With the election fast approaching, Harris will need to navigate these concerns carefully to avoid further alienating this crucial demographic.

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