As the countdown to Election Day ticks below one month, the competition in Senate battleground states is intensifying.

Notably, Wisconsin’s Senate race for the seat held by Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), is now neck and neck. Previously holding a comfortable seven-point lead in August, Baldwin’s advantage has dwindled to a mere two points against Republican contender Eric Hovde, standing at 49% to 47%, as indicated by CookPolitical’s latest Swing State Project survey.

While a recent poll from Marquette Law School still places Baldwin ahead by seven points, 53% to 46%, both Democratic and Republican private polls suggest the race is razor-thin, within the margin of error, and consider the Marquette results an anomaly.

WASHINGTON, DC – June 5, 2024: U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) speaks at a press conference prior to a Senate vote on the Right to Contraception Act.

The shift isn’t surprising in the battleground state of Wisconsin, known for its sharply divided political landscape. The 2022 Senate race was decided by a slim margin of one point. Although Baldwin currently leads among independents by eight points, 50% to 42%, there has been a significant 11-point shift towards Hovde among this critical group since August, according to political reporter Jessica Taylor. Hovde, a venture capitalist who funds his own campaign, has successfully unified Republican support and made significant inroads with independent voters, intensifying the race as Election Day approaches.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin – July 16, 2024: Wisconsin Senate Candidate Eric Hovde at the Republican National Convention.

In the 2020 presidential election, Wisconsin played a pivotal role as a key battleground state. Democrat Joe Biden won the state by a narrow margin, securing 49.6% of the vote compared to 48.9% for the incumbent Republican President Donald Trump. The close race spotlighted Wisconsin’s significance in the electoral landscape, with Biden flipping the state blue after it had narrowly supported Trump in 2016. The state’s 10 electoral votes were crucial in Biden’s overall electoral college win, illustrating once again Wisconsin’s status as a swing state with the power to influence the outcome of national elections.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), has recently invested $17 million in advertising in Wisconsin according to The Hill. Since winning the mid-August primary, Baldwin and her Democrat allies have outspent Hovde and the Republicans by approximately $10 million. A victory for Hovde could signal a robust showing for Republicans on election night, potentially leading to a Senate majority of at least 53 seats.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesman Tate Mitchell said in a statement, “After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lockstep with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner’s stock trades from her constituents. Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum.”

This November, 34 Senate seats are up for grabs, putting the Democrats’ fragile majority at risk. Holding 51 seats, they are particularly vulnerable in West Virginia, a state that leans heavily Republican. Senator Joe Manchin, a rare Democrat elected by the state, has been in office since 2010. A loss there would mean that Republicans need only one more victory to flip the Senate in their favor, assuming they hold steady in other contests.