FPI / November 13, 2024

Geostrategy-Direct

Excerpts from a Nov. 12 analysis by Gregory R. Copley for GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs

What has been “a global civil war” between globalist and nationalist elements of societies reached a major tipping point with the overwhelming nature of the electoral wins in the United States by Republican Party presidential candidate Donald Trump, whose party was also dominant in the Congressional elections.

This was a major pivot point in global trends, just as the 2016 Brexit referendum and 2016 U.S. presidential elections were also pivotal as an augury of the changing world, but to a lesser degree. The war was still at its height.

Part of the reality underlying the new Trump Administration is that the President must reduce the size and influence of the Federal governmental bureaucracy, which has created — along with the rise of state and city bureaucracies — a socialist-like state dominated by government employees rather than a productive private sector.

Nov. 5, 2024 may be the date on which the great post-World War II waves of totalitarianism — disguised as “globalism” — were suddenly spent on the shores of geopolitics and nationalism. Transnational (or borderless) totalitarian movements usually roll on and gain strength like a building tsunami until they can gather no more momentum and then, once spent, collapse suddenly.

The U.S. elections of Nov. 5 at Presidential, national legislative, and regional levels, marked that great withdrawal of energy from the “globalist”, anti-history movement, although parts of it still linger.

We now may be in a position to start to answer the question of what it portends for the global strategic balance.

What the overwhelmingly decisive U.S. elections showed was that the urban-based globalist movement, fed by a technology-linked, constantly-reinforced urban mass psychosis, was now in disarray. But this has been evident around the world as élite urban movements and the governments they dominate have fallen into disfavor with the broader electorates, progressively since about 2016. If anything, the US 2024 elections represented the reality that “national” audiences were no longer being intimidated by urban group-think.

The run-up to the U.S. 2024 elections were marked by increasingly confident displays of support for former President Donald Trump, where, over the past decade, such support was not confidently arrayed in public.

The same level of rejection by grass-roots electorates of globalist-aligned intimidation has been evidenced in Europe, Australia, and elsewhere, prefiguring seismic governmental changes over the coming few years. But in immediate terms, the change of U.S. Government, which will formally occur on Jan. 20, 2025, may have come just as the U.S. was at a point of no return.

Ramifications for Communist China

The overwhelming nature of the U.S. election mandate for President Trump, supported by a solid Senate majority and probably retained control of the House of Representatives, and a preponderance of sympathy in the Supreme Court, means that Beijing — already bankrupt, and faced potentially with widespread popular unrest — must once again revert to a strategic policy of caution.

Another ramification of the U.S. election, outside Beijing’s control, is that it is likely that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may occur in early 2025, with a more durable solution following. That could lead to a gradual re-integration of Russia into the global trading and political marketplace, with reduced direct competition between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic West, including the U.S.

That, in turn, will lead to reduced Russian dependency on the PRC as a trading and security partner, leading to a situation in which Russia would likely renew its diplomacy with Japan, potentially restoring talks about an overland Pacific-Atlantic trade route from the Japanese islands, via Sakhalin and Russian territory, to Europe. Russia already has begun development of its other east-west trade corridor, the International North-South Transport Corridor, from the Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean via Iran and the Caspian and up through the riverine system to St. Petersburg and the Baltic/Atlantic.

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