FPI / November 15, 2024

Geostrategy-Direct

By Richard Fisher

Look out SpaceX, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), China’s leading state-owned rocket and space company, plans to start testing by 2030 a reusable first-stage version of its 10.6-meter diameter Long March-9 superheavy space launch vehicle (SLV), which is about the same size as Elon Musk’s 9-meter diameter SpaceX Starship super heavy SLV.

A Chinese state television simulation of the barge-cable recovery of the first stage of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) Long March-9 super heavy space launch vehicle that could be tested by 2030. / China state television

In addition, CASC plans to apply the same recovery-reusability technology to its 5-meter diameter Long March-10, its first Moon-rated manned SLV that could begin testing in 2026 to support a planned landing of Chinese astronauts on the Moon before 2030.

China understands, as does the United States, that reusability for SLVs is the acme for lowering the cost for populating the Moon and Mars.

This new test date disclosure was made in a Nov. 9 Chinese state media interview with Wang Yue, a researcher at the First Academy of CASC, and then illustrated in displays at the 15th Zhuhai Airshow taking place from Nov. 12 to 17.

Instead of using employing a single launch and recovery tower like the SpaceX “Mechazilla,” CASC will at first employ an at-sea barge with a large 4-post structure into which the Long March-9 first stage is guided, and then caught by four constricting cables.

This allows for a potential guidance advantage: the capturing barge can move slightly to achieve a better first stage “capture” as that first stage is also maneuvering toward the barge.

But this method then loses the advantage of time in that it has to transport the recovered first stage to the launch facility at the Wencheng Satellite Launch Base on Hainan Island, the location for China’s Moon, Mars and deep space mission launches.

This development is important to note as it represents an acceleration of previously announced plans that included the launch of a non-reusable Long March-9 by 2030 and then the launch of a reusable version later in the 2030s.

At this point, it appears that CASC will be testing a Long March-9 version with a fully reusable first and second stage by 2035, or it will have the ability to potentially conduct transport missions to the Moon that could match the capability of the SpaceX Starship.

The main unanswered question is whether the CASC Long March-9 with two reusable stages will have a second stage that can be configured for refueling in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) as is Starship.

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