FPI / November 1, 2024

Geostrategy-Direct

By Richard Fisher

An increasing leak rate for atmosphere, precautions that keep the non-Russian astronauts in the American portion, and doubts about Russia’s ability or willingness to support its portion all contribute to the possibility that the International Space Station (ISS) could become an early “space crisis” prompting the next U.S. President to opt for an earlier end to the ISS than its planned 2031 de-orbit.

For 25 years since 1999 the International Space Station (ISS) has been a living monument to the potential for science in outer space, life in outer space and peace in outer space, given that it was born in the brief period of post-Cold War comity between the United States and the post-Soviet Russia — all now dashed by all responsible for Vladimir Putin’s brutal 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

A rising atmosphere leak rate for the International Space Station (ISS), centered on the Russian-made portion, is raising questions whether it will remain viable until its planned 2030 de-orbit. / NASA Office of Inspector General Report, Sept. 26, 2024

In those 25 years the ISS has hosted 244 astronaut visitors from 23 countries and five space agencies, has grown to a mass of 419.7 metric tons and has cost the U.S. National Air and Space Administration (NASA) about $3 billion a year, or about one third of its human spaceflight budget, or about 16 percent of its overall budget.

Politically, at least for the United States, the ISS remains a key in- space training and cadre building platform, having hosted Japanese, European, Australian, Canadian, and future planned Indian astronauts — all potential key paying partners in the 45-nation U.S.-led Artemis Program for building a permanent manned presence on the Moon.

For Russia, the ISS represents its most consequential and only major space-technical cooperative endeavor with the democracies, for which Western sanctions proscribe broad technical cooperation.

However, Russia is not permitted to bring on astronauts from its current main partner in space — China — and appears to be pursuing plans to build a small space station by 2030, called the Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS), though Russia’s Ukraine War makes non-credible that it can afford ROSS.

But now there are apparent increasing concerns, made clear in a Sept. 26 report by the NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG), that the ISS is facing maintenance issues of increasing concern, placing increased focus on whether the U.S.-Russian partnership can sustain the ISS until its planned de-orbit in 2031, or be repaired to fly longer.

Air leaks, mainly in the Service Module Transfer Tunnel, between the Russian and the U.S. portions of the ISS, have increased from a loss of 2.4 lbs. in February, to 3.7 lbs. in September.

The NASA OIG report states, “According to ISS Vehicle Office officials and their Roscosmos counterparts, the Service Module Transfer Tunnel leak is not an immediate risk to the structural integrity of the Station, and there are no current concerns of long-term impacts to the overall structure. Nevertheless, in February 2024 NASA identified an increase in the leak rate, and the Agency and Roscosmos continue to assess the risk that the increase poses to the module’s structure”

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