•  Remember, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the first quarter is a hindsight review. Meaning the information released today was based on activity in January, February and March 2025.U.S. companies surged the purchasing of import goods, mostly from China, by more than 50% in the first quarter. They were/are building inventory. So, what happens in China starting in April?
  • Hong Kong, CNN –  
  • The U.S. has front-loaded the inventory. So, orders to China drop now. It’s a natural outcome.
  • We have purchased goods in advance. So, orders to China drop. As a result, the cargo shipments from China to the USA drop in April, May and June.
  • It’s not that U.S. consumers don’t have the product to purchase; the reality is the product is already here, awaiting purchase.
  •  to retain an oppositional perspective toward Donald Trump, the media narrative will not look back at the 50% surge in first quarter purchases; they will only look at the severe drop in second-quarter orders.
  • With less being ordered, the media will now say the Trump tariffs are hurting consumers, deliveries to ports are substantially less, without ever mentioning the products are already here.
  • On the upside, there will be a massive rebound in Second Quarter GDP as the imports have dropped; meaning there is less to deduct. However, we will not see that statistically until the last Friday in July.
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  • Source: theconservativetreehouse.com