US equity futures are lower following yesterday’s rally, while European stocks and the euro rose ahead of a German parliamentary vote that is expected to sign off on a spending program funded entirely by hundreds of billions in new debt, something which until recently was anathema to the ruling conservatives. As of 8:00am S&P futures are down 0.3%, losing ground after Bloomberg reported Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all weapons deliveries to Ukraine; Nasdaq futures slide 0.4% with Mag7 names mixed premarket as Nvidia rose ahead of Jensen Huang’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the company’s GAI conference while TSLA lags on BYD news of a 5-min full charge, increasing substitution risk. Bond yields are flat to +2bps as the curve twists steeper and USD starts the day flat. Commodities are led higher by Energy and Precious Metals, driven by the latest escalation in the middle east (oil) as Israel broke the ceasefire with Hamas and killed over 400 in overnight strikes over Gaza, as well as general de-risking/USD diversification which has sent gold to a record high of $3,025. On today's calendar, Trump/Putin are supposed to speak later today on a Ukraine ceasefire. Today’s macro data focus is on Import/Export prices, Industrial Production and Housing Data; however, none are expected to be market moving given the Fed's decision to keep rates unch tomorrow.

In premarket trading, Tesla is the top decliner in the Mag 7 basket, while Nvidia investors are focused on Jensen Huang’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the GPU Technology Conference (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.8%, Apple -0.07, Microsoft -0.3%, Meta -0.3%, Nvidia +0.1% and Tesla -1.9%). Bakkt Holdings sinks 31% after the company said two major partners would not renew their commercial agreements. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Grab Holdings’ US-listed shares jump 5% as the firm is said to be moving forward with its attempt to take over its Indonesian rival GoTo Group.

Harrow soars 20% after the eyecare-pharmaceutical company posted preliminary 4Q revenue that topped expectations.

Lucid Group gains 2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the electric-vehicle maker, seeing potential for the stock to re-rate with new leadership that can put forward an artificial intelligence strategy through partnerships.

Nio climbs 5% after the Chinese EV company received an investment from battery giant CATL; while Li Auto (LI) gains 5% following a presentation at Nvidia’s annual AI conference.

PepsiCo slips 1% after Barclays issued a downgrade, saying its ability to re-rate higher depends on the fate of the US snacking business, and “there remains a heavy lift in order to shore up Frito-Lay North America.”

As concerns about the US economy and markets return, sentiment toward Europe keeps improving as the prospect of German fiscal expansion has been a major catalyst for European equities’ outperformance this year, with a Bank of America monthly survey showing investors’ weighting to European stocks at a mid-2021 high. Their US allocations, meanwhile, have fallen by a record amount in recent weeks as President Donald Trump’s trade and labor policies threaten economic growth and company profits.  

“US equities are being challenged not only by trade and tariff uncertainty, but even more by uncertainty over the administration’s economic strategy,” Von Rotberg at Bank J. Safra Sarasin said, noting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s dismissal of the recent Wall Street selloff as a “healthy” correction.

Beside's Nvidia's GAI conference today, the other big event of the week is the Federal Reserve meeting that kicks off later Tuesday. While interest rates are expected to stay unchanged, investors are eagerly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell’s assesment on the economy and how much policy support could be offered by the central bank this year. 

Meanwhile, uncertainty on the geopolitical front sent gold prices to a new record above $3,025 an ounce, as Israel shattered a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas by launching airstrikes across Gaza. The events also lifted oil prices for a third day.  Investors will also be tracking newsflow from Trump’s upcoming call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the push continues to end fighting in Ukraine. Details of the US-Russia talks have been sketchy so far, but Trump has said the two sides were talking about “dividing up certain assets.”

In Europe, the extremely overbought Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.6%, with Germany’s DAX benchmark touching a new record high rising 1.1%, before the landmark vote that should usher in a flood of debt to pay for more expansive fiscal policy and boost economic growth across Europe. German borrowing costs edged higher, while the euro firmed to a new five-month high versus the dollar. Among individual stock movers, companies such as Thyssenkrupp AG and BAE Systems Plc extended recent gains, as a Bloomberg analysis showed these firms stand to benefit the most from the spending splurge. Auto stocks also climbed, lifted by optimism around the outlook for electric vehicles after China’s BYD Co. unveiled rapid-charging EV models. BYD shares earlier hit a record high, while Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks jumped 2.5%. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

German stocks are outperforming the broader European index on Tuesday with the country’s lawmakers set to vote on a bill that would unlock hundreds of billions of euros to finance defense and infrastructure spending

Computacenter shares jump as much as 13%, the most in 18 months, after the IT company confirmed revenue returned to growth in the second half of 2024. Analysts at Jefferies say the pivot to growth should help fuel a re-rating in the stock

Trustpilot shares rise as much as 16% after the user-review site reported FY24 adj. Ebitda that beat analyst expectations and guided to a 2 percentage-point increase in Ebitda margin this year

Bytes Technology shares soar as much as 18%, the biggest jump since December 2020, after a positive trading update which analysts said should help investor sentiment after recent underperformance

Sabre Insurance shares jump as much as 11%, the biggest intraday surge since 2022, after the company announced a higher dividend and its first-ever share buyback

EMS-Chemie shares drop as much as 6.3%, the most since July, after Kepler Cheuvreux cut the recommendation on the Swiss polymer and chemical company to reduce from hold, citing faster-than-expected escalation of the US trade war

Fraport’s shares fall as much as 4.5% after earnings from the airport services provider fell short of expectations and analysts flagged a weak outlook, with the company saying it expects profit to remain stable or decline slightly

Close Brothers slumps as much as 21% following first-half results, which included guidance for net interest margin in the firm’s banking unit that is below analyst expectations

“Long-term prospects for European equities have certainly improved, given the steeper growth trajectory in the years ahead,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a third day of gains, as rallies extended in Hong Kong and Japan. Indonesian equities tumbled on economic woes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.1%, with major Chinese technology names including Alibaba and Tencent among the top contributors. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong gained more than 2.5%, helped by a rally in Baidu after it released a new AI model. Japanese stocks rose after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway increased its stakes in five trading houses. Bucking the broader regional advance, Indonesia’s benchmark plunged as concerns mounted over weakening consumer spending in Southeast Asia’s largest economy and President Prabowo Subianto’s populist measures. The Jakarta Composite Index slid as much as 7.1%, the most since September 2011. Asian equities are extending their outperformance over US peers this year, powered by the sharp tech-driven rebound in Chinese equities. Investors will be taking further cues from a raft of earnings in China, with Xiaomi due to report later Tuesday, followed by Tencent and Meituan later this week.

In rates, treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper, unwinding a portion of Monday’s sharp twist-flattening move. US front-end yields are richer by around 1bp, long-end cheaper by 1bp-2bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp-2bp; 10-year around 4.305% is ~1bp cheaper on the day with German 10-year lagging by 3bp, UK by 2bp. Bunds fell again, led by longer-dated maturities with German 30-year yields rising 4 bps to 3.15% ahead of parliamentary vote expected to open the door for increased spending on defense and infrastructure. US session includes economic data and 20-year bond auction, contributing to steepening pressure.For $13 billion 20-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time, the WI yield near 4.64% is ~19bp richer than February new-issue auction, which tailed by 1bp

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the US yield curve steepened modestly ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting that kicks off later Tuesday. The euro euro adds a few pips to $1.0935 having touched a five-month high earlier ahead of a German parliamentary vote that is expected to sign off on a spending program worth hundreds of billions of euros. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. The Swedish krona takes top spot with a 0.3% gain. 

In commodities, oil climbed for a third day as escalating tensions in the Middle East overshadowed concerns about a potential global glut. Israel launched overnight airstrikes across Gaza that Hamas said killed hundreds of people, shattering a nearly two-month ceasefire with the Palestinian group. WTI climbed 1.4% to $68.50 a barrel, rising for a third day on escalating tensions in the Middle East. Gold rose to a record high above $3,025 an ounce as an escalation in Middle East tensions underscored its haven appeal, and investors weighed data that fueled concern the US economy is slowing down. Bitcoin falls 1.3% to below $83,000. 

Looking at today's calendar, we get February housing starts/building permits, import/export price index, March New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and February industrial production (9:15am). Fed officials are in external communications blackout ahead of Wednesday’s policy announcement

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,680.00

MXAP up 1.1% to 189.82

MXAPJ up 1.3% to 595.75

Nikkei up 1.2% to 37,845.42

Topix up 1.3% to 2,783.56

Hang Seng Index up 2.5% to 24,740.57

Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,429.76

Sensex up 1.3% to 75,120.70

Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,860.42

Kospi little changed at 2,612.34

Brent Futures up 1.0% to $71.78/bbl

Gold spot up 0.8% to $3,025.46

US Dollar Index down 0.12% to 103.24

Top Overnight News

Russia’s Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all arms deliveries to Ukraine during a ceasefire proposed by Donald Trump, according to people familiar. The two leaders are set to hold a call this morning. BBG

Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza, killing more than 400 people, Palestinian health authorities said on Tuesday, threatening the complete collapse of a two-month ceasefire as Israel vowed to use more force to free hostages held by Hamas. RTRS

US President Trump is scheduled to sign executive orders at 15:30EDT/19:30GMT on Tuesday.

US President Trump's administration is reportedly planning a 25% workforce reduction at the US IRS taxpayer help office: WaPo

WSJ's Timiraos, as part of his Fed preview, "Powell’s 18 colleagues who participate in monetary policy meetings have shifted their outlook. A few doves have become hawks, and vice versa. At least one has an eye on possibly succeeding Powell next year."

German lawmakers vote later on a bill that would unlock hundreds of billions of euros to finance defense and infrastructure spending. European weapons manufacturers look set to benefit most. BBG

Trump said he’s authorizing his administration to immediately begin producing energy with coal in a bid to counter China’s economic advantage from the fossil fuel. BBG

Allocation to U.S. stocks saw the biggest drop ever in March with concerns over stagflation, trade wars and end of U.S. exceptionalism driving a "bull crash" in sentiment. Global investors raised their allocation to cash to 4.1% from 3.5%, ending a "sell signal" triggered in December, with the speed of the downturn in sentiment being "consistent with end of equity correction.” RTRS

Over at the Fed, Trump named Michelle Bowman as vice chair for supervision. She’s expected to support a lighter touch on bank regulation. The FOMC starts its two-day policy meeting today. BBG

China hasn’t imported US LNG for 40 days, the longest gap since June 2023, as traders diverted shipments to Europe to avoid Beijing’s tariffs. Buyers are looking to procure supply from Asia-Pacific or the Mideast instead. BBG

Indonesian stocks dropped the most in almost three years, at one point triggering a trading halt, as concerns mounted over weakening consumer spending and the president’s populist measures. BBG

US trade Rep. Jamieson Greer will now handle tariff messaging. Through the past two months of tariff chaos — marked by false starts, confusion and presidential threats followed by quick reversals — US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has largely been out of the picture. He was only confirmed to his role in late February, creating a void filled by White House adviser Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to handle messaging. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

US President Trump's team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, although the proposal was said to have been ruled out, according to WSJ citing officials.

USTR Greer is imposing a policy process on the reciprocal tariff plan in an attempt to inject order into new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fuelled business uncertainty.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher after the advances on Wall Street and with light catalysts heading into this week's central bank announcements, although some of the gains were capped as Israel resumed its bombardment of Gaza. ASX 200 was underpinned at the open but then pared the majority of its initial gains with strength in energy and defensives partially offset by losses in tech and consumer discretionary. Nikkei 225 coat-tailed on recent currency moves and retested the 38,000 level to the upside with strength in Japanese trading houses after Berkshire Hathaway boosted its stake in Japan's five largest trading houses. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark significantly outperforming on tech strength and with Baidu leading the advances after its recent AI reasoning model launch, while the mainland struggled for firm direction in rangebound trade.

Top Asian News

Freeport Gets Final Copper Export Approval From Indonesia

Trump Tariffs to Raise Bar to Invest in the US, JETRO Says

More China Consumers Feel Better Off, Deutsche Bank Survey Shows

BOK Members Tighten Focus on Shoring Up Economic Momentum

Lady Gaga’s Mayhem Tour Spurs Rush for Tickets in Singapore

Big Baidu Blocks Trade as China Tech Jumps: HK Options Snapshot

Indonesia’s Deputy Speaker Denies Finance Minister Stepping Down

European bourses are in the green and toward session highs in an extension of the gains seen on Monday. Focus firmly on upcoming fiscal reform with the vote set for around 13:30GMT in the Bundestag. DAX +1.3% is the regional outperformer with some of the budget beneficiaries such as Thyssenkrupp (+6.2%) near the top of the Stoxx 600.
US equity futures are a touch softer, ES -0.4% & NQ -0.5%, count down to the afternoon's data docket where the latest import/export price data which will feed into both AtlantaFed and PCE. More broadly, the macro focus is on the Putin-Trump call which is set for between 13:00-15:00GMT and then the FOMC on Wednesday. Alphabet (+0.2%) in talks to purchase Wiz for USD 30bln, Tesla (-0.4%) softer as Toronto has excluded it from an incentive program due to US-Canada tensions, Walmart (+0.2%) CEO to sell shares and NVIDIA's (+0.5%) CEO to speak at 17:00GMT/13:00EDT.
Apple (AAPL) has lost an appeal against a regulatory assessment that opens it up to stricter controls in Germany, according to a federal court ruling.

Top European News

Top German court rejected additional attempts to stop the debt brake reform vote.

ECB's Rehn says growth in the Euro area economy is picking up gradually, notes that risk to inflation outlook are two sided.

FX

USD is broadly on the backfoot vs. peers with the exception of the JPY once again as the risk environment in Europe is currently an upbeat one; DXY at the lower-end of a 103.23-61 band.

EUR is firmer and has been a high as 1.0954 vs the USD into the discussed German reform. A peak which is another YTD high, the next target comes via the 9th October peak @ 1.0980.

JPY is continuing to hand back gains with USD/JPY as high as 149.91. Attention is turning to tomorrow's BoJ policy announcement with the central bank expected to stand pat on rates.

GBP flat vs the USD but losing out vs the EUR given the above dynamics. BoE the near-term focus point. Despite the contained action, Cable hit a fresh YTD peak at 1.3004.

CAD has been a touch lower against the USD into the regions inflation metrics, which are expected to show Y/Y CPI in Feb rising to 2.2% from 1.9% on account of the end of the sales tax holiday, according to ING.

PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1733 vs exp. 7.2364 (Prev. 7.1688).

Fixed Income

Bunds are pressured and at the low-end of a 127.45-127.86 band with yields firmer across the curve which itself is notably steeper. Action which occurs into the fiscal reform vote, the process has begun in the Bundestag with the vote set for 13:30GMT (guidance only).

USTs find themselves essentially unchanged once again into data and as the FOMC countdown begins, in a slim 110-17 to 110-24+ band which is entirely within Monday’s 110-14 to 110-30 parameters. For yields, the curve is once again mixed but today finds itself slightly steeper in-fitting with the bias from European peers.

Gilts are lower and despite a lack of developments are the incremental underperformer with the stronger risk tone, EGB read across, looming OBR deadline and today’s earlier supply all perhaps factoring; supply was strong with a modest bounce seen thereafter.

Commodities

Crude futures continue their geopolitically induced gains, as a slew of Middle East headlines supported benchmarks overnight, both WTI and Brent up around USD 1.0/bbl and at session highs of USD 68.72/bbl and USD 72.19/bbl.

Dutch TTF is pressured ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Putin call, where they are expected to talk about "power plants" and “land”, as Trump told reporters.

Gold has made its way more convincingly past the USD 3k/oz mark, to a USD 3028/oz ATH.

Base metals in the red with Aluminium underperforming on reports that the EU is set to announce a probe into aluminium imports to “protect the bloc’s industry from an expected surge in cheap imports displaced by US tariffs”,

US President Trump posts on Truth that he is authorising his administration to "immediately begin producing Energy with BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN COAL"

US Energy Secretary Wright said they expect to see a lot of pipelines getting built, according to Fox Business.

Geopolitics: Middle East

Israel's military said it conducted extensive strikes and targets belonging to Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli PM Netanyahu's office said the PM and Defence Minister directed the military to take strong actions against Hamas in Gaza following the group's persistent refusal to release hostages and rejections of the proposals it has received.

Israeli military said Home Command ordered restrictions on civilian activity near the Gaza Strip following strikes against Hamas and Israeli media said the air attack included the assassination of military and political leaders in Hamas. Furthermore, President Trump reportedly gave Israel the green light to resume attacks after Hamas refused to release hostages, according to an Israeli official cited by WSJ.

Israeli media quoted security sources that stated the aim of the resumption of fighting in Gaza is to pressure Hamas to return to the negotiating table and release as many hostages as possible, while security sources added if Hamas does not respond, the operation will expand and will not be limited to air activity only.

Hamas said Israel resumed aggression against civilians in Gaza and is unilaterally ending the ceasefire agreement, while it also stated that Israeli PM Netanyahu and his government decided to overturn the ceasefire agreement, exposing hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate. It was also reported that Israeli strikes killed at least 310 people and senior Hamas security official Mahmoud Abu Watfa was killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza.

US Secretary of State Rubio said without Iran there would be no Houthi threat of this magnitude and that Iran created this terrifying monster which they have to take responsibility for.

US Central Command said its forces continued strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists, according to Sky News Arabia. It was separately reported that a US spy drone retreated from near Iranian airspace after encountering Iranian F-14 fighter jets and reconnaissance drones, according to NourNews.

Iran rejected and condemned 'reckless, provocative' statements by US President Trump and said it has not violated the UN arms embargo on Yemen or engaged in destabilising activities in the region, according to a letter to the UN Security Council Furthermore, Iran said that the Houthis and Yemeni authorities operate independently in their decision-making and actions.

Yemen's Houthis are at war with the US now and will retaliate against strikes, via Reuters citing Houthi Minister Amer; will not be "dialling down" Red Sea action in response to US pressure or appeals from allies such as Iran.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

US President Trump posted on Truth that he will be speaking to Russian President Putin concerning the war in Ukraine on Tuesday morning and many elements of a final agreement have been agreed to, but much remains.

Russian President Putin reportedly wants all arms sales to be halted in the event of a ceasefire agreement, according to Bloomberg.

Kremlin says Russia President Putin and US President Trump will hold a call between 1-3pm GMT today; call will last as long as is necessary

US event calendar

08:30: Feb. Housing Starts, est. 1.39m, prior 1.37m

Feb. Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.4%, prior -9.8%

Feb. Building Permits, est. 1.45m, prior 1.47m

Feb. Building Permits MoM, est. -1.4%, prior -0.6%

08:30: Feb. Import Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%

Feb. Import Price Index YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 1.9%

Feb. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 1.3%

Feb. Export Price Index YoY, prior 2.7%

09:15: Feb. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%

Feb. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%

Feb. Capacity Utilization, est. 77.8%, prior 77.8%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The rebound from Thursday’s S&P 500 correction continued yesterday even if the sting in the tail was a fresh decline in US tech mega caps. Today starts what should be a quiet 2-day FOMC meeting alongside an important vote this morning in the Bundestag and a scheduled call between Presidents Trump and Putin.

Before all that, the S&P 500 has now reduced its fall from the highs to -7.63% after closing +0.64% last night. I published a short pack yesterday looking at the history of corrections (link here). On our methodology there have been 60 now since 1928. Including this one so far, 10 have only spent one day in correction territory but if you read DB’s Binky Chadha’s latest piece here he expects this one to continue into early April. Time will tell. It would be easier if tech was performing but yesterday saw the Mag-7 fall -1.10% led by a -4.79% decline in Tesla and a -1.76% fall in Nvidia.

But outside of big tech it was a strong day, with only 44 fallers in the S&P 500 and the equal-weighted version of the index advancing +1.32%. Energy (+1.56%) and consumer staples (+1.55%) led the gains within the S&P and the VIX volatility index fell to its lowest since the end of February (-1.26pts to 20.51). The upbeat tone was helped by the absence of negative trade headlines and was if anything helped by a Bloomberg report that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was reinstating a more process-oriented approach ahead of the expected April 2 tariff announcements.

In terms of Germany today, to achieve a two-third majority for the reform of the debt break and the bumper fiscal package, the CDU/SPD/Greens need 489 out of 733 votes and have a buffer of 31 votes. We think it is highly unlikely that many of these will vote against the package. Expect the vote to start at 10am with the result perhaps taking until lunchtime given it's a roll call vote. Assuming it goes through then the next stop is the Bundesrat on Friday where it should also comfortably pass, especially as yesterday Bavaria’s ruling coalition of CSU and Free Voters confirmed they would support the changes in the Bundesrat. Therefore, the German Constitutional Court (GCC) is the most likely unknown but again the expectations are for there to be no objections with more rulings going in favour of the package being allowed to go to a vote yesterday. Ahead of the vote, the DAX (+0.73%), STOXX 600 (+0.79%), and FTSE100 (+0.56%) continued their gains from Friday, while bonds across the continent actually recovered after their recent sell-off with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.8bps), OATs (-7.8bps) and BTPs (-8.0bps) all seeing sizeable declines.

By contrast, US Treasury yields saw more modest moves with 10yr US yields falling -1.4bps to 4.30% but 2yr yields rising +2.8bps to 4.05%. The latter came as December fed fund futures rose by +4.6bps with 60bps of Fed cuts now priced in by year-end. That’s the most hawkish that market pricing has been this month, having traded at 90bps of cuts early in the Asian session last Tuesday morning.

Those moves came amid a mixed bag of US data. This included a softer-than-expected headline US retail sales print (+0.2% m/m vs the expected +0.6% m/m), the homebuilder sentiment index falling back to its August 2024 local lows of 39 and the empire manufacturing survey disappointing (-20.0 vs -1.9 expected). January’s retail sales were also revised to -1.2% m/m (previously -0.9% m/m). However, February retail control growth was +1.0%, six tenths above expectations even if there was a couple of tenths downward revision to the prior month. That brought the 3-month annualised growth of retail control, which feeds more directly into GDP, to a solid +3.8%, alleviating some of the increasing concerns over the US consumer outlook.

Turning to commodities, Monday saw Brent crude oil (+0.69%) rise to a two-week high of $71.07/bbl following the US strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen over the weekend. Oil has edged another +0.28% higher overnight following Israeli military strikes in Gaza, signaling a potential breakdown of the almost two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Meanwhile, copper (+1.63%) rose to its highest level since last May after the stronger monthly China activity data that we reported yesterday.

Gold (+0.55% to $3,001/oz) closed above $3,000 for the first time ever yesterday, after first breaking that threshold intra-day on Friday, as investors continue to rotate away from the US dollar and find perceived safe havens amidst the heightened policy uncertainty. Indeed, the dollar index (-0.34%) yesterday fell to its lowest level since October.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+2.14%) leading gains and rising to three-year highs, followed by the Nikkei (+1.27%). Mainland Chinese equities are struggling to gain as much momentum with the CSI (+0.32%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.14%) both edging slightly higher. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.04%) is swinging between gains and losses alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.05%). S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.47%) futures are both retreating with US yield. Meanwhile, yields on USTs are around a basis point lower across the board.

And now for the day ahead, as a reminder Germany’s leaders will be voting in the Bundestag today at 9AM GMT, with the roll called vote finishing possibly up until 12:30PM GMT. We’ll also get more US Feb data on industrial production numbers, building permits and housing starts. Canadian CPI is the other highlight. And President Trump’s phone call with President Putin is expected in the morning US time, with President Trump posting yesterday evening that “Many elements of a Final Agreement have been agreed to, but much remains.”

 

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