Thursday, 26 June 2025

Iran Fires Missiles On US Bases In Gulf, But Admits Advanced Notice Was Given

ZeroHedge
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Update(1335ET): NY Times is reporting that advanced notice was given, which appears confirmation that plans of the 'retaliation' attack were leaked beforehand and was in many ways telegraphed publicly.

"Iran coordinated the attacks on the American airbase in Qatar with Qatar officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans," per the NY Times' reporting.

War theater? Or just one big test of US-supplied anti-air defense hardware? One regional journalist and pundit writes:

So far this is looking like the response we got in 2020 in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. A telegraphed attack on US base that did not result in fatalities but is “face saving” for the Iranian regime.

Some are claiming missile impact on some targets, which would indeed be a very serious development. But Qatar's Al-Arabi is saying there were no Iranian missile attacks on Iraq's Ain al-Assad base, which hosts significant US forces.

And meanwhile markets seem to be taking this all in as a bit of staged war theater...

Some odd trading behavior to say the least, seemingly indicating markets aren't buying the 'spectacle' thus far...

Oil knows? 

Below: Oil at moment when Iran launched the first missiles...

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Update(1242ET): The Iranian response appears to have begun, as it's raining missiles over Doha, Qatar. AFP journalists are reporting explosions over Doha, and Reuters has also cited witnesses to the blasts.

Axios is reporting that Iran has launched six missiles toward American bases in Qatar. "Iranian missiles were launched targeting US bases in Qatar and Iraq," according to JPost's Amichai Stein. i24News is reporting that "at least 10 missiles were fired at Qatar."

  • IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILE STRIKE AT US AIR BASE IN QATAR: TASNIM
  • UAE AIRSPACE IS CLOSED: FOX NEWS
  • AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM ACTIVATED OVER US AIN AL-ASSAD AIRBASE IN IRAQ ON ATTACK FEARS
  • IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILES AT US BASES IN QATAR, IRAQ AND KUWAIT
  • ALARMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT ALI AL SALEM AIR BASE IN KUWAIT
  • BAHRAIN URGES CITIZENS AND RESIDENTS TO GO TO SAFE PLACE
  • IRAN SAYS ITS ATTACK WAS FAR FROM QATAR RESIDENTIAL AREAS
  • Trump in Situation Room with Defense Secretary, Joint Chiefs — CNBC
  • U.S. military jets are currently scrambling from bases in Saudi Arabia: Report
  • Iranian military statement: we targeted the Al-Udeid Base in Qatar with 'devastating and powerful' missile attack.

    • Anti-air defenses active over the Gulf:

    More early, unconfirmed footage:

    It seems the Pentagon knew it was coming, and this may be telegraphed... perhaps more war theater:

    * * *

    Update(1235ET): A series of rapid news wire headlines have set off the alarm of an Iranian attack on US interests in the Middle East is 'imminent'. Lots of fast-paced unverified claims racing:

  • Iran moves ballistic missile assets to target US assets across the region — WSJ
  • Large GPS disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
  • US military jets being scrambled from Saudi Arabia, British & French military jets being scrambled
  • TRUMP ADMIN PREPARING FOR IRAN ATTACK ON US GULF BASES: AXIOS
  • CHINA URGES CITIZENS IN QATAR TO AVOID AL UDEID AIR BASE

    • Qatar has already been shutting down airspace, and importantly that is home to the US 5th Fleet.

    "Iran is moving missile launchers into place for a potential attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East in response to the surprise American strike on three nuclear sites over the weekend, according to U.S. officials," the breaking reports say.

    S&P 500 ERASES GAIN

    * * *

    Update(1125ET): Iranian state media sources are reporting that Iran is likely to attack US military facilities in the Mideast region 'in the coming hours'.

    There are an estimated 40,000 American troops throughout the whole region, including at bases and on warships in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

    On Sunday the NY Times had cited US officials to say anonymous US military and intelligence officials had detected signs that Iran-backed groups are preparing hostile action against US forces in places like Syria and Iraq. There's also the possibility of direct Iranian ballistic missile launches on bases in Iraq, just as happened in the wake of Soleimani's assassination during the first Trump administration.

    But is this response being telegraphed or even coordinated with the US so as to avoid uncontrollable escalation? Israeli journalist Amit Segal reports:

    Senior Israeli officials assess that Iran will, in one way or another, coordinate its attack on the United States — similar to how it acted following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. This is intended to avoid an unplanned escalation and out of hope to contain the incident. Perhaps in this context come the reports suggesting that the U.S. already knows the attack will take place within the next 48 hours.

    Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel started out fierce and sustained, but have waned in the last days. Tehran is not expected to go after US assets with such intensity, fearing that Washington could launch a full war of regime change targeting the Ayatollah.

    Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic continues to get pummeled by now daily and nightly Israeli airstrikes, particularly over unprotected airspace in Western Iran...

    * * *

    White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has said in a fresh interview that the US administration is 'confident' that Saturday’s bombings of three key Iranian nuclear sites accomplished the job of dismantling Tehran’s alleged nuclear ambitions. She also said Trump made the decision "based on his own instincts and the US intelligence that he saw."

    "This strike on Saturday did make our homeland safer because it took away Iran’s ability to create a nuclear bomb. This is a regime that threatens ‘death to America,’ and ‘death to Israel, and they no longer have the capability to build this nuclear weapon and threaten the world," she told ABC News on Monday morning while making media rounds. 

    At a moment White House officials have been trying to downplay that this is a conflict of regime change in Iran, Leavitt did say the US is seeking to "Take away the power of this incredibly violent regime."

    Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz were hit with huge bunker-buster bombs over the weekend, after which President Trump late Sunday declared on Truth Social: “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!”

    However, UN inspectors at the IAEA currently have no access to the impacted sites of Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz - and the country remains essentially a warzone, also with airspace closed- as the region braces for potential Iranian response against US bases and assets. And of course, satellites can't assess damage underground, where the enrichment facilities and stockpiles are located.

    Press Secretary on FOX: "why shouldn't the Iranian people take away the power of this incredibly violent regime?"

    Also interesting is that Leavitt repeated the US administration talking point that the intel on Iran that Trump was provided made clear that Iran was 'weeks' from a nuclear weapon.

    It remains that once again the American people are being led into supporting another US war and quagmire in the Middle East based on 'trust us!' from this administration, citing vague 'intel reports' on WMD, which sounds suspiciously like the faulty Bush-Cheney case against Saddam Hussein.

    Still, the White House official narrative remains that Trump is not seeking full regime change in Iran, and this is also how Israeli media is presenting it in recent headlines:

    “The President’s posture and our military posture has not changed,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tells reporters.

    “The president was simply raising a question that I think many people around the world are asking: if the Iranian regime refuses to give up its nuclear program or engage in talks… if they refuse to engage in diplomacy moving forward, why shouldn’t the Iranian people rise up against this brutal terrorist regime?”

    So we are already in the 'Iranian people should rise up' phase of this war.

    Below are all the latest headlines and developments of the last 24-48 hours...

    * * *

    Israel-Iran Latest Highlights

  • US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators ("bunker busters") were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
  • Satellite imagery shows significant damage at all facilities. Trump described it as a joint effort with Israel.
  • IAEA say the damage assessment is pending; no signs of radiation leak.
  • In retaliation, Iran's parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
  • Iran retaliated by missile strikes on Israel. Has said future action could target over 20 US bases or naval assets. Iran's Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
  • The European morning has seen a slew of geopolitical updates (see section below). Some additional USD strength on: an Iranian provincial official says Israel is targeting the Fordow nuclear facility, via Tasnim. Israel struck Fordow's access road, to prevent certain elements from approaching the area, according to Journalist Stein.
  • Iran's Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
  • Iran's Army Chief says they are now free to take action against US interests, via IRNA.
  • Iranian city Karaj has been targeted by Israeli missiles, according to Fars; reports of large explosions being heard in Tehran.
  • Russian Kremlin says President Putin will receive the Iranian Foreign Minister later today. Communication channels remain open with the US, a call between US President Trump and Putin can be "quickly organised if required"; no current plans for a call. Iran can share its proposals later today.

    • Israel-Iran Weekend News

    US Strike Operations

  • US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.
  • Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators ("bunker busters") were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
  • Satellite imagery confirmed significant infrastructure damage at all three nuclear sites, with Fordow showing six fresh craters.
  • All targets were reportedly struck between 23:40 BST (Saturday) and 00:05 BST (Sunday). Iran’s air defence systems failed to detect or intercept the incoming attacks.
  • Trump described the attack as a joint effort with Israel, saying they “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.”
  • Axios quoted officials as saying that Whitkov told Araqchi during the operation that “the strike is only once.” He confirmed that Washington was still seeking a diplomatic solution and wanted Tehran to return to negotiations.
  • US President Trump did not want to continue striking Iran, but he would do so if US bases were targeted, according to Sky News Arabia citing Axios.
  • US President Trump reportedly directed staff to announce a two-week window in order to conceal plans for the Iran attack, according to CNN sources.

    • Damage Assessment & Nuclear Risk

  • IAEA Director General Grossi said craters are visible at Fordow, Natanz suffered direct hits, and tunnel entrances at Isfahan were struck. Full underground damage assessment remains pending. A special IAEA board meeting is scheduled for Monday.
  • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine stated it is “too early” to assess whether Iran’s nuclear capability was fully neutralised.
  • US intelligence officials have raised concerns Iran may have relocated enriched uranium stockpiles in advance.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio urged Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles, claiming they remain buried under Isfahan and likely were not moved before the strikes.
  • The IAEA reported no signs of a radiation leak. Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority confirmed no radioactive effects were detected in Gulf states.

    • Strait of Hormuz & Oil Flow Threat

  • The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio warned such a move would be “economic suicide” for Iran but remains a credible escalation vector.
  • NOTE: Market contacts have suggested OPEC+ have not had any calls, with no talks of an emergency meeting yet amid no signs of supply disruptions, yet.

    • Iranian Military Response

  • Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa, Israel, resulting in at least 86 reported injuries.
  • Iranian officials have warned that future actions could target over 20 US bases or naval assets in the region.
  • Iran stated that its military would determine the timing, nature, and scale of its response, according to Reuters.
  • Signs have emerged of Iran‑backed militias preparing to attack US bases in Iraq and Syria, according to Sky News Arabia citing The New York Times.
  • Iranian air defences reportedly activated in Isfahan, targeting hostile Israeli aircraft.
  • Iranian forces reported that Israeli airstrikes killed nine personnel — seven Revolutionary Guards and two conscripts — in Yazd province.

    • Iranian Messaging

  • Iran is weighing its response — with its Foreign Minister saying “all options” are on the table after Washington proved “they only understand the language of threat and force”, according to CNN.
  • Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that US strikes would “result in irreparable damage” to the US.
  • Iran’s President Pezeshkian warned of a “more devastating” retaliation if Israel’s bombing campaign continued.
  • Iranian regime sources denied any major nuclear material loss from the strikes, implying the sites had been pre-emptively evacuated.
  • Iran’s Crisis Management HQ stated there was “no danger” to civilians near Fordow; state media reported the site had “long been evacuated.”
  • An adviser to Khamenei claimed Iran still retains its enriched uranium, indigenous nuclear knowledge, and political will, despite facility damage.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister condemned the strikes as a violation of international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  • The Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation called the attacks “a barbaric act” breaching international law.

    • International Reactions

  • The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at 20:00 BST on Sunday in response to the strikes. US Ambassador Dorothy Shea defended the operation; China, Russia, and Pakistan called for an immediate ceasefire and accused the US of breaching the UN Charter.
  • The UN and EU called for de-escalation, with Secretary-General António Guterres warning of a “dangerous escalation.”
  • The E3 (UK, France, Germany) released a joint statement urging Iran to return to nuclear negotiations and warning against further destabilising actions.
  • Gulf Arab states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait condemned the US strikes, calling for restraint and diplomatic resolution.
  • UK PM Keir Starmer backed the US strike, describing it as a response to a “grave threat.”
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu praised the US action, calling it a display of “awesome and righteous might” that could “change history.”
  • Saudi Arabia, Oman, and India expressed concern and urged all sides to pursue diplomatic solutions.

    • US Political & Legal Fallout

  • Congressional response to the strikes was mixed. Most Republicans expressed support, with Senator Ted Cruz praising the operation. However, some dissent emerged within the party, notably from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who stated, “Not our fight.” Democrats strongly criticised the move; Senator Bernie Sanders labelled it “grossly unconstitutional” and accused President Trump of bypassing Congress.
  • US Department of Justice said President Trump had the authority under Article II to order Iran strikes without congressional approval, but a prolonged conflict might require Congress’s involvement, according to CNN.
  • US President Trump to meet with National Security team at 13:00 EDT/18:00 BST on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

    • Trump on Truth Social

  • US President Trump posted on Sunday "The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be “monumental.” The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill was shown by our military. " Trump added that "if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change", and that "The GREAT B-2 pilots have just landed, safely, in Missouri."
  • President Trump later posted "Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!... The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!"

    • US Homeland Security & Domestic Threats

  • The US is on high alert for Iranian-backed terrorist attacks, especially in the 48 hours following the strike. FBI, DHS, and local law enforcement have increased security presence at places of worship in major cities including New York and Washington, DC.
  • DHS warned of a heightened domestic threat environment, including potential for cyberattacks or lone-wolf incidents inspired by religious rulings.
  • The White House is monitoring potential Iranian sleeper cells inside the US.
  • VP Vance stated the administration is watching known terror watch list individuals who entered during the Biden era.

    • Regional Axis Responses/Headlines

  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Moscow to consult with President Putin. Russia condemned the US strikes as a “flagrant violation of international law.”
  • Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi said he would discuss tackling common challenges and threats with Russian President Putin, according to Iranian news agency SNN.
  • Hezbollah condemned the US strikes, calling them a violation of international and humanitarian law and warned the conflict could spiral globally.
  • A Yemeni Houthi official warned retaliation for the US attack was “only a matter of time.”

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