Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

This week, the US Supreme court announced that it will consider throwing out the Mexican government’s suit in the case of Smith & Wesson Brands v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos. The Mexican government alleges that Smith & Wesson and wholesaler Witmer Public Safety Group Inc. are intentionally conspiring with middle-men to supply Mexican cartels with guns. 

The Mexican plaintiffs have never actually proven any of this, of course, and this is all part of a larger effort by the Mexican regime and its apologists who have looked for a scapegoat to blame for Mexico’s runaway homicide rates over the past twenty years. In truth, the Mexican government would do well to look a bit closer to home. Mexico’s crime problems are a result of Mexico’s corrupt state, its centralized government—which is a federal government in name only—and the fact Mexico essentially outlaws gun ownership for peaceful, law-abiding citizens. 

In the past I’ve covered in detail the ways that Mexican crime is a result of Mexican law and illegal gun running of Mexican guns in Mexico. At the core of Mexico’s failed claims is the fact that guns are far more common in the United States than in Mexico, yet crime is far, far worse in Mexico. Even along the border, American border towns have far less crime than the Mexican towns mere yards away on the other side of the border. On the American side of the border, legal guns are plentiful. On the Mexican side, the Mexican government ensures that guns are mostly in the hands of the cartels. Or, as I put it in 2018: 

Like much of Latin America, Mexico is a country with strict gun laws, but high homicide rates.

So how to explain the problem?

Well, in the case of Mexico, the answer for gun control activists is to blame the United States: “one way for Mexicans to get around their country’s strict gun laws is to simply walk across the border.”

The logic proceeds accordingly: The presence of more guns means more homicide. And, although Mexico has strict gun laws, Mexico is unfortunately located close to the United States where guns can be easily purchased. Guns are then introduced into Mexico where they drive a higher homicide rate.

There are some problems with this logic. Even if we account for all the black-market guns in Mexico, gun totals are still much higher in the US. That is, according to the 2007 Small Arms Survey, it is estimated that there are around 15 million privately-held guns in Mexico, on the high end. Even accounting for an additional increase since 2007, we’re looking at a rate of fewer than 20 guns per 100 people in Mexico. In the United States, on the other hand, that total is around 100 guns per 100 people.

So, if one is going to pin Mexico’s violence problem on “more guns,” they have to account for why there are more than five times as many guns in the US, with only a small fraction of the homicides.

Moreover, the often-quoted statistic allegedly showing that as much as 70 percent, or even 90 percent, of guns seized in Mexico come from the US is not true. That statistic is based only on seized guns that are also traced by the ATF. How many of all guns seized in Mexico come from the US? According to Stratfor, “almost 90 percent of the guns seized in Mexico in 2008 were not traced back to the United States.” Nor does the Mexican government ask the ATF to trace all guns seized in Mexico.

This is because many of those arms can be traced back to the Mexican government itself.