Oil prices are falling Tuesday on the headline that Iran has agreed to cease producing uranium which is enriched at near nuclear bomb grade levels.

Israeli and Western officials have long been worried that the more than year-long Gaza war, alongside the recent-tit-for-tat missile exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv, have accelerated the Islamic Republic's push to achieve a nuke.

"Iran began enriching uranium at up to 60% levels in 2021," Bloomberg reviews of what has put UN inspectors on edge.

"That material could quickly be upgraded to the 90% level typically used in nuclear weapons, prompting concern across Europe and the U.S. Iran still has enough fuel on hand to produce a handful of warheads, should its leadership make a political decision to move forward," the report continues.

But then a key line based on a 12-page IAEA report:

Monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that Iran has begun implementing measures "aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile," according to a 12-page report seen by Bloomberg News. The Islamic Republic’s engineers have already taken the first steps necessary to cap output, the report said.

Could this be the Trump effect happening in real time? 

Tehran has expressed willingness to work with the incoming Trump administration, and is of course fully aware that some pro-Israel hawks have already been placed in key positions (most notably Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, and Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel). 

But some top Iranian officials are still waiving the nuclear threat around...

⚡️GAME CHANGER

Ayatollah Khamenei's top advisor, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, says that Iran can achieve Nuclear Deterrence in 24 hours, while our enemies predicted that it will take us 48 hours pic.twitter.com/RfLK7p9oVW

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) November 18, 2024

The reality is that Tehran knows that Trump will carry a big stick, and will be more willing to give Israel a wide berth for conducing offensive action against the Islamic Republic. Tehran could now be trying to show President-elect Trump that it's taking serious steps to deescalate things.