While mainstream polling has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris "essentially tied" across seven key battleground states, betting markets - which can be more accurate than public polls according to Rutgers statistics professor Harry Crane, have shown a massive and recent surge for Trump.
Donald Trump at an event, Aug. 15, 2024, in Bedminster, N.J., left, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign event in Raleigh, N.C., Aug. 16, 2024. (AP Photo)According to Polymarket, late last week Trump began surging in Michigan, while picking up a Monday bump in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
According to The Hill, Harris' lack of traction with unionized blue-collar workers 'has emerged as one of her biggest challenges' when it comes to winning key states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
"Trump’s tariffs and get-rid-of-the-immigrants [message] is a very attractive kind of proposition to people who feel like their jobs were taken abroad, and Trump gets some credit from union guys for breaking with the free-trade consensus," said progressive activist Bob Borosage, who says Harris needs to spend more time promoting her economic agenda to working-class voters. (lol)
We noted the shift in Michigan late last week, which continued through the weekend.
Kamala's Katrina moment?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2024
Remarkable shift in online betting toward Trump. Kamala in danger of losing all three battleground states where she still has a lead (NV, MI, WI) as PA moves deeper into Trump's camp. Real-time odds from Polymarket. https://t.co/2u8lDM6Pyp https://t.co/RUedqKmO9I pic.twitter.com/1Az2EStNBo
Even the NY Times notes that Harris' edge in Pennsylvania in mainstream polling could be fake news, as "The poll average could even be so stable in part because many pollsters are using heavy-handed statistical techniques that reduce the variance of their results from poll to poll but that increase the risk of systematic errors," adding "Systematic polling errors — in which one side does better than expected, across the board — have been common in recent cycles."
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Mr. Trump just about everywhere. If it happened again this cycle, he would claim an easy victory. On the other hand, the 2022 polls underestimated Democrats in most key states. If it happened again, it would be Ms. Harris who claimed a victory. -NYT
Tons of gambling money pouring in on Trump. Did Kamala’s internal polls leak? pic.twitter.com/TMAbxR0app
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 7, 2024
Meanwhile back at the ranch, Ipsos polling from late last week of the seven swing states reveal Trump doing better than Harris in various key metrics.
For starters, battleground voters are more than twice as likely to see the vice president as in thrall to the political establishment than they are the former president.
Thirty-five percent of respondents believe Harris is part of the current system, while just 16% make the same assertion about Trump.
And though voters believe Harris is the establishment candidate, they also discount her lack of experience compared with the former president, again by a more than 2-to-1 spread.
A whopping 47% of respondents credit Trump with more experience; just 21% believe Harris is the more seasoned selection — a seemingly damning dismissal of her nearly four years in office.
Beyond the impressions, a number of issues play to the former president’s strength, not least of which is immigration.
By 48% to 33%, battleground voters trust Trump over Harris to handle the undocumented aliens whose presence has multiplied amid a porous border and diffident enforcement from the Biden-Harris administration. With 1 in 3 voters seeing immigration as a top-three issue, this is a meaningful metric.
On war and terrorism, Trump is also the pick: 42% of voters favor his approach, while 32% believe Harris is better suited to handle global conflict. -NY Post
And here's Polymarket...
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