Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons ; Michael Vadon, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, Cropped by Resist the Mainstream

An analysis of new census data indicates that migration within and out of Pennsylvania could present issues for President Joe Biden, as data would indicate that the already close matchup between himself and former President Donald Trump could be even closer in 2024. 

“Uneven patterns of in-and out-migration could work to make what was a closely contested 2020 presidential campaign even closer in 2024,” penned Berwood Yost, director of Floyd Institute's Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. 

Trump lost the state by less than 100,000 votes in 2020, 48.8% to 50%. Now, as preparations for the 2024 election go into full swing, the Keystone State is expected to play a similarly pivotal role, given its high percentage of manufacturing workers.

Yost noted that since 2020, when the last census was taken, counties won by Trump had a combined gain of about 4,500 people, while Biden-won counties have had a combined loss of over 45,000 people.

Pennsylvania’s overall population has declined significantly since 2020, with a Census Bureau press release highlighting Philadelphia County as one of the largest declining counties in the U.S. 

“The biggest losses at the county level were in Pittsburgh and Allegheny County and Philadelphia. And those are two of the big centers of Biden's support,” Yost told Fox News in an interview. “And so does that affect his ability to win by large margins in those counties? That's a real issue.”

Yost stressed he couldn’t definitively say that the movement patterns within the state will be detrimental for Biden, but he believes it's very possible. 

Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Fox in reference to the statistics, “With just 35 percent job approval, Joe Biden is floundering in his home state of Pennsylvania. Between higher gas prices, surging crime, and failed Democrat policies crushing families at every corner, it's no wonder that Pennsylvanians across the Commonwealth are increasingly rejecting the failed Biden agenda and supporting President Trump.”

In new polling this month, Biden's approval rating fell to 36%, while 61% disapproved of his job as president. 

Pennsylvania is expected to be a very close matchup. According to the latest Fox News poll, 49% of Pennsylvanians opted for Trump and 47% for Biden, which is within the survey's margin of error.