As legal observers continue to speculate on former President Donald Trump's fate in the days and weeks ahead, conservative scholar Jonathan Turley predicts that the outcomes of his guilty verdict will be largely positive.
In a blog post reacting the to verdict, the George Washington University professor wrote that the jury's decision hit “like a thunderclap” and came after Manhattan Judge Juan Merchan was prepared to dismiss the 12 members for the day.
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Turley described the scene: “The scene in the court was a madhouse. Judge Juan Merchan told the court that the jury had not reached a verdict and would be dismissed for the day. Many reporters in the overflow courtroom were leaving when Merchan suddenly said that there was a verdict. People came running back into the courtroom. That was followed by 34 guilty verdicts.”
In addition to being “saddened” by the outcome, the Fox News contributor believes President Trump stands a credible chance on appeal. “As I said last night, we must keep the faith. Indeed, moments like this require us to take a leap of faith in a nation that remains committed to the rule of law. Manhattan is neither the entirety of the country nor the legal system. I believe that these convictions will be overturned, but it will take time. Judge Merchan committed, in my view, layers of reversible error. Eventually, this case may reach the United States Supreme Court.”
Like any other felon in the New York criminal justice system, President Trump will be required to meet with a probation officer before sentencing; that person “will make recommendations to the court,” said Turley.
“There is a possibility of a jail sentence for felonies that come with up to four years for each offense. Any jail sentences would almost certainly run concurrently. However, any jail sentence would be ridiculous in Manhattan for an elderly first-offender in a non-violent offense.”
Turley also condemned the “thrill-kill” state of mainstream and liberal media outlets rushing to predict that the Republican Party's presidential nominee may serve jail time. He cited his peer, MSNBC legal analyst and former Mueller aide Andrew Weissmann, who on Thursday speculated that Merchan “will give Trump jail time.” Weissmann's prediction stands at odds with an earlier statement the judge made while finding Trump violated a gag order where he stated he would prefer not to place the former president behind bars and admitted he may return to the White House next year.
Merchan said that jailing Trump is the “last thing I want to do,” Fox News reported at the time. “You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well. There are many reasons why incarceration is truly a last resort for me. To take that step would be disruptive to these proceedings,” Merchan said.
More likely, Turley writes, is that Merchan hits Trump with a sizable fine and conditions of his parole. “The most appropriate, in my view, would be a conditional discharge that requires Trump not to commit a new crime or face potential imprisonment,” he predicted.
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